Copa Libertadores
Joke odds on the Brazilians for this match, and at first sight I was tempted by the handicap on the Peruvians. But, I honestly don't expect Leon to score, as they have proved in all of their matches this year that they have troubles scoring. They played 8 games in 2011 (including friendlies), and they only managed to score 5 goals, never managing more than 1 in a single match, showing just how much they miss their players from 2010, especially their main attacking force, Rodas and Perea. However, defensively they seemed ok, both with reserves and with regulars, and this could also be an explanation for their lack of goals, the coach changing the style of play to a more defensive one, since they can't count on Rodas's skills up-front. And I'm expecting the same defensive approach tonight as well, as going to attack on Gremio's field is pretty much suicidal. The Brazilians are of course better, but not to be made 1.20 favorites. They had a lot of work to do with Oriente Petrolero in their first match, and the Bolivians could have entered with a 0-0 at HT, if it wasn't for a made-up penalty. They should score and win, of course, but they could have some problems in doing that. Oriente's defense was pretty lame, so they were sliced open a few times, while Leon looks much more stable. The under looks like the better choice here, because I don't see Leon scoring, and Gremio should win with a maximum of 3-0, although that's far-fetched... 1-0 or 2-0 look like the most probable scenarios. GL!
under 3.25 goals @ 1.81, 4/10
Result: 2-0, WON
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