Once Caldas - San Luis

Copa Libertadores

The Mexican teams are playing away from home, and are looking like solid fade material. San Luis is the first on the list. They are on an awful run of 8 games without a win, and this trip in Colombia should be a lot harder than any other match they have played recently. Even if the altitude factor from Manizales shouldn't be much of a problem for San Luis (as they also play at higher altitude), the trip could be exhausting, having to travel more than 4000 km to Colombia. And they have just played on Saturday evening, so with just 3 days to recover and to make such a long trip, they could find themselves in a fatigue problem. Meanwhile, Once Caldas looks to be in great form, not losing any of their last 5 games (including the first leg match in San Luis Potosi). In their last league match, they have won 5-1 against Deportes Quindio, with a sublime Dayro Moreno who scored a hat-trick. And their offense is generally working well, Moreno, Renteria and Carbonero working well together. And with Once Caldas being a real powerhouse when playing at home, overwhelming their opponents with offensive football, I can't see past an easy win for them. Higher stakes than usual for this match, as it looks like a lock. GL!

Once Caldas (-0.75 AH) @ 1.88, 6/10

Result: 1-1, LOST

Olimpia Asuncion - Rubio Nu

Paraguay Primera Division, Apertura

Olimpia's semi-fail finally came, and it was more or less expected (though not worthy enough to risk a bet against them), as all the teams find it hard to play against Tacuary and their ultra-defensive 8-1-1 formation. But despite their mid-week draw, Olimpia is still sitting pretty in the standings, 7 points ahead of second-placed Nacional. Now they are eager to get back to winning ways, and again they will use their best formation, as there are no unavailable players. Rubio plays a similar style to Tacuary's, crowding their defense and hoping for a lucky counter. But they just do it as well as Tacuary, and their strategy only works against the smaller teams, which they usually beat 1-0. Against the bigger teams, that have better players and a more suffocating style of play, and that can be seen in their results: conceded 2 goals from Cerro Porteno (although they managed to tie the game, but Cerro was in their maximum-retardation period), and last week they lost 1-4 at Libertad, a team that plays nowhere near as fast and as deadly as Olimpia is. I've said it in previous analysis as well, Olimpia is playing great, both at home and away, always going forward, always looking for the goal, and they have some very good players that can score any time, even from set pieces. Rubio will kost likely defend in numbers, but if Olimpia's goal comes in the first half, the score could and should get some bigger proportions. GL!

Olimpia (-1 AH) @ 2.04, 4/10

Result: 1-3, LOST

The Strongest - San Jose Oruro

Bolivia Division Profesional

If we were to choose 2 teams from the Bolivian league that are sure to provide entertainment and goals, those 2 team will be The Strongest and San Jose, without a doubt. That is because both teams are favoring an offensive style of play, both are doing good in attack, and both are quite poor defensively. So far, San Jose has played 8 matches, and in 6 of them there were scored at least 3 goals, and more importantly, they have conceded at least once in every match. The Strongest don't have such a good percentage, as in only 3 out of the 8 matches played were there scored at least 3 goals, but today they are preparing a more offensive team, that should be able to score a couple of goals. The 2 strikers that are announced as starters for today have a good percentage, especially youngster Melgar, who scored 2 goals despite being in the starting-11 just once, so a lot is expected from him. Meanwhile, for San Jose there will be a few modifications, also trying to make their squad even more offensive-minded. Defender Pizzaro is suspended, and won't be available, making them a bit more vulnerable at the back. We should have a good match here, with lots of goals expected, especially if we think that their last 3 direct matches ended with at least 3 goals. GL!

over 3 goals @ 2.03, 3/10

Result: 0-0, LOST

Juan Aurich - Leon de Huanuco

Peru Primera Division, Descentralizado

For a team that showed a lot of defensive and mental instability, against a team that is recovering well from a bad start, the give odds seem like a joke. Juan Aurich has been playing nicely, but always failed towards the end of the matches. After a solid 0-0 in the first round at Universitario, they had two apparently easy matches at home, but both of them were with a lot of emotions. In both matches they lead 2-0, and both times they saw themselves equalized in the closing moments. They did manage to get the winner against Union Comercio, but they weren't so lucky against CNI and the match ended 2-2. Meanwhile, Leon suffered a terrible start, losing to Inti Gas and Cobresol, before showing signs of recovery, winning 1-0 at Cesar Vallejo (with a mixed team) and beating Universitario, 2-0, after an impressive display. They still don't look like the 2010 Leon, but they are looking quite good, covering the field well, defending with stability, and knowing when and how to put pressure on the opponents. And the defensive lapses that Juan Aurich has showed, could be a good way for Leon to take advantage and try to score. They lost both their previous matches played in Chiclayo, but both with a minimum difference. So, the current handicap should be tried, as if both team will keep the current trend, Leon has some good chances not to lose. Reports are saying that they won't be resting anyone ahead of their Libertadores match, so there is no reason not to believe they won't prolong their winning run. GL!

Leon (+0.75 AH) @ 2.11, 3/10

Result: 2-0, LOST

Sporting Cristal - Union Comercio

Peru Primera Division, Descentralizado

Neither of these teaams enjoyed a good start, but with Union Comercio being an unknown at the start of the season (and very probably this is their real value), no one expect much of them. Not the same can be said about Cristal, who were announcing very loudly they will be challenging for the title, so for them, the 4 points won in 4 matches are as good as plague. That's why I expect some sort of comeback sooner or later, especially since they aren't so poor as the results suggest. They made a pretty decent match against Alianza Lima, and could have also snatched a draw last round at Alianza Atletico, but they conceded in the closing seconds of the match, after playing the last 20 minutes with a man less. The fans are furious, and are demanding a win today. Anything less might turn ugly for the players and the technical staff. Union Comercio was disappointing in their first matches, conceding 7 goals in their first 2 matches (against Alianza Lima and Juan Aurich), and despite some recent improvements, they still don't look like solid Primera material. I'm counting on a determined performance from Cristal, and with the way the odds have been moving (from 1.43 to 1.73), this bet is really starting to look nice. GL!

Sporting Cristal @ 1.72, 4/10

Result: 2-1, WON