Peru Primera Division, Liguilla B
Just 5 more rounds before this league reaches it's final, and usually, this is the time when surprises start appearing. So let's try to take advantage by some of the odds the bookies wrongly set (at least in my opinion). Sport Boys are heavy favorites, and in some bookies there has been a massive odds fall on them (1.78 to 1.62). But the interesting fact here is that in the last 3 years, they have never won against Alianza Atletico, from 11 matches, and they have been set as huge favorites just once (first match in 2008)... otherwise, odds were usually around 2, so this give us an automatic value on Alianza. Especially since the visitors are the team in need. They are just 1 point ahead of the relegation area, and are in desperate need of points. Meanwhile, Sport Boys aren't assured of avoiding relegation, but they have a much easier task, as they are 7 points ahead of Cienciano, who play at Leon de Huanuco, so it's not likely they will cut the lead. And Boys, in case of things heating up, can easily solve their last 2 home matches, against an unmotivated Sport Huancayo, and in the last round, against a Leon side that should be qualified to the final and should also rest their regulars. Both teams are in good form (15 points in the last 10 matches for each of them), and with no important absences, so I'm going with the team that has the head-to-head advantage, and also has more need for points. GL!
Alianza Atletico (+0.5 AH) @ 2.12, 3/10
Result: 2-2, WON
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