Ecuador Serie A, Segunda Etapa
As everybody probably knows, I don't like these big handicaps, but I see a lot of value in this bet if we think that the opening odds were at an average of 1.72. So with odds bigger than 2 at the moment (in most bookies), there is defintely some value there. I don't really understand this movement in the odds, as the opening ones seemed to be quite fair. It's true that there were some internal issues in the past week, with the disciplinary problems of Miller and Luis Bolanos, who won't be taken into account for today's match, but other than that (and the probable absence of goalkeeper Dominguez), there are no other new squad problems for Liga. They will play with the regulars (despite a Sudamericana match next week), with Barcos and Bieler making the offensive double, so I expect to see some goals here. Espoli are playing tragically, despite their last win against Imbabura. And away from home, they are especially poor: in the last 10 away games, they have only won one and drew 2 other games, while from the 7 that they lost, 5 were by a difference of at least 2 goals. LDU also clearly won their last 2 direct meetings, and I think they can do it again. At these odds, this bet is surely a good shot. GL!
LDU (-1.5 AH) @ 2.06, 4/10
Result: 1-0, LOST
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