Feb 27, 2012

Barcelona - LDU Loja

Ecuador Serie A, Primera Etapa

First thought here was to take the -1 handicap, but the odds are a bit on the low side, and I'm pretty sure they will drop and the line will change to -1.25, and I don't like that too much. So I'm choosing the over instead, as it has better odds, and pretty much the same chances of happening. As I probably mentioned previously, Barcelona has a very good team, capable of challenging for the title, and I'm quite sure of their finish on the podium. Despite losing 2 points last round, they still looked good, dominating the entire match, having possession, chances to score and putting a lot of pressure on Tecnico, despite drawing 1-1. So now they should try and recover those points, and when they play at home it's another story. First round they won 3-1 with Cuenca, so I'm expecting a similar performance against Loja. LDU Loja started poorly, with 1 point in 2 matches and without a single goal scored, so they need to come out more today. Franklin Salas and Fabio Renato are decent strikers, and they can do some damage if given space. So, for this bet we only need one early goal, regardless if it will end 3-0 or 2-1 (both scenarios are equally possible). GL!

over 2.5 goals @ 1.97, 3/10
Result: 0-0, LOST

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