Special Summer Offer

With just 7 days of May remaining, subscriptions for June are now open, and we also have a Special Summer Offer. Since most South American competitions will be taking a break, we won't be left with too many matches to bet on, so I can't guarantee a minimum number of picks. However, we'll still see some action: the season finale in Paraguay, Ecuador and Uruguay, the closing stages of Copa Libertadores, the new tournament in Peru - Torneo Intermedio, some friendly matches (but I will try to avoid those as much as possible), and of course, this year's main competitions: Copa America and the CONCACAF Gold Cup. Plenty of action...

The Special Summer Offer covers both June and July, for the price of just one month. That means: June + July for 50 euros, but the same offer applies for the packages: 3-months subscription = June/July + August + September for 127 euros, and the 6-months subscription = June - December for 240 euros.

For more information, feel free to leave a message here, or e-mail me at theiguana2005@yahoo.com

Best Regards

Emelec - Deportivo Quito

Ecuador Serie A, Primera Etapa

Judging by the recent trend in Ecuador, this line/odds are way too high for this match. I've spoken before about the trend of derbies ending with very few goals, and this match fully fits the pattern. Very important match for both teams: with a win, Emelec assures they sit on the top spot at least until LDU have to play their postponed match, while Deportivo Quito could tie Emelec on points if they win today, and will give a whole new meaning to their match against LDU. So it's surely a match that neither team wants to lose, and if we think about how they play, not losing will be their main focus, not winning. Out of their last 10 matches, Emelec finished 8 of them under the 2.5 line. Deportivo has a better percentage, with 7 overs from 10 matches, but all of them were against mug-teams. The matches against some more illustrious opponents (LDU, for example) finished as unders. One more reason for this bet resides in the head-to-head: from the last 10 encounters between Emelec and Deportivo, only one of them finished with 3 goals... even their previous match of the season, played in Quito, finished 0-0, so we have a good set-up for another boring affair. GL!

under 2.5 goals @ 1.83, 3/10

Result: 0-0, WON

Defensor Sporting - Penarol

Uruguay Primera Division, Clausura

Big derby tonight, between 2 of the best teams in Uruguay, in a match with a lot of importance for both teams, as whoever loses, is totally out of the title race in Clausura. But, since Penarol has also managed to qualify for the semi-finals of the Copa Libertadores, they have shifted their objectives, especially since after their last 2 defeats, the title seems to be out of reach. And since on Thursday they will welcome Velez Sarsfield on their stadium, for the first leg of the semi-final, they will use a mixed team tonight, with a lot of players that aren't regulars and that haven't played too much this season. It will be more or less the same team that played last weekend, and that got trashed at home, 1-4, by River Plate. And if a lowly team like River can deliver such a beat-down as visitors, I imagine Defensor Sporting being more than able to do the same. They are also fighting for the title, and a chance to win it without having to play a final (they won the Apertura, but if they don't also win the Clausura, they'll have to settle the title with Nacional in a final of the league). Full squad for them tonight, and I expect them to be motivated, as even if they are unlikely to reach the first place, Penarol is certainly the team everyone wants to beat. Besides, the 3 points from tonight could help them take top spot in the aggregate table, so they have it all to play for. GL!

Defensor Sporting DNB @ 1.85, 4/10

Result: 0-0, VOID

Cerro Porteno - Guarani

Paraguay Primera Division, Apertura

Simple reasons for this bet, so I won't make this too long. Cerro Porteno has to play tonight against Guarani, in a postponed match, while on Thursday night they will have to play the return-leg of their Copa Libertadores clash against Jaguares Chiapas. This is rather unusual for them, as the Paraguayan Federation usually cares about it's teams that participate in continental cups, but with Copa America just around the corner, they probably ran out of available days to reschedule this match. So, in short: last week, Cerro used their regular players for the match against Jaguare (obviously), and used a team of mostly youngsters to face General Caballero in the league (a match which they lost, 0-1, against the worst team of the league). Same scenarios will apply this week... regulars will face Jaguares, while the same team that lost in the weekend will play against Guarani. So, a great chance for Guarani to win on Cerro's home ground, and to get some points in hope of finishing as high as possible, and maybe snatch the last ticket for the 2012 Copa Libertadores. And since Guarani is a much better team than General Caballero (who already won against Cerro's youngster team), the away win looks pretty certain here. GL!

Guarani DNB @ 1.76, 5/10

Result: 0-0, VOID

Inti Gas - CNI

Peru Primera Division, Descentralizado

Good opportunity for Inti Gas to make a solid performance at home, as usual, and to take 3 points that will help them remain in the top half of the table. They will use more or less the same team that lost at Juan Aurich during the weekend, as they will once again have a few unavailable players: Moisela is suspended, while Landauri is injured, but as I said before, just Landauri can be considered an important absence, as he is the only one of the above-mentioned players that has featured regularly. Meanwhile, CNI will also have some absences, but they are quite important for the team: defender Portilla (12 matches played so far) is suspended, while midfielders Noronha (11 matches) and Barrena (10 matches) are doubtful through injury, and it looks like they have slim chances of playing tonight. Moreover, there is also a high altitude in Ayacucho, and that usually helps the home team, especially against smaller teams that play in the lowlands, like CNI. In their 4 trips to Ayacucho, CNI has lost all the matches, with a goal difference of 1-11. Don't see it much different today, as I expect Inti Gas to win it comfortably and recover from the heavy beat-down suffered last Sunday. GL!

Inti Gas (-0.75 AH) @ 1.98, 4/10

Result: 4-0, WON