May 6, 2011

Junior Barranquilla - Jaguares Chiapas

Copa Libertadores

Really don't understand the bookies obsession with Jaguares, because, as how I see it, the odds on Junior are incredibly high, as I wouldn't have made them more than 1.50 favorites. First of all, we have to mention Jaguares's form, which at least in the local league has been dreadful recently. In Libertadores they had a relatively easy group, but even so, in their away games they haven't managed to snatch a single point, losing both in Guayaquil against Emelec, as well as in Bolivia against second division team Jorge Wilstermann. And now they are again playing away, at a team that looked quite impressive in the group stage, winning 4 out of 6 games, only losing in Brazil and drawing at home with Leon in the last round, when they were already qualified and assured of finishing on top of the group. Even in the first leg, Junior was the better team, and the Mexicans can consider themselves lucky to have finished with a draw, but I certainly don't expect that to be the same case in Colombia. Of course, Junior can qualify even with a 0-0, but that's not really how they play, and I see them looking for the win early on, as they certainly have the advantage in quality to do so. And with Jaguares lookin hopeless lately, especially as visitors, they should hope for too much from this match. GL!

Junior (-0.5 AH) @ 1.74, 5/10
Result: 3-3, LOST

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