Copa Libertadores 2012, Group Stage
When the market first opened for this match, I wanted to skip it, as prices around 1.70 for a home win were a big no-no for me. But recent odds movement made this bet more and more appealing, as we now have a -0.25 at a better price than the opening odds for a win, so let's try this. It's true that Penarol lost several key players during the summer break, while Atletico Nacional invested a lot of money in new players, and this has paid out in the first match, dominating U de Chile and taking a clear win. However, Penarol is a bit weaker than last year (when they played the final of Libertadores), but I still rate them as a solid enough team, and home factor is very important in Libertadores. Besides, they've made a good match in Argentina in the first round, especially in the first half, missing some good chances, and finally making a costly mistake in the second half, thus losing the match. Today, everyone is focused to change their fortunes in the group, and for me, the Colombians still need to prove they can also perform outside of their home country. They have good quality and experience up-front, with Zalayeta, Estoyanoff and Maxi Perez (in case that Mora won't be fit), and they should make their home advantage count, with a small margin for error in case of a draw. GL!
Penarol (-0.25 AH) @ 1.78, 4/10
Result: 0-4, LOST
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