Copa Libertadores 2012, Group Stage
Wanted to wait until match day for this bet, hoping that the public would jump on the home team, but I see the odds have been falling so far, so I doubt we'll have much better odds on Thursday. The main point for The Strongest being so high favorites lies in the altitude from La Paz, and from their last week win against Santos. But both are a bit exaggerated... Santos lost only because they are idiots, and their strikers acted like Muppets last week: Neymar ruined at least 2 clear chances to score, choosing to make some extra 4-5 dribbles instead of shooting, and besides that, the Brazilians also missed some more incredible chances, and also had a post. The Bolivian team did control most of the match, and attacked furiously, but their level of finishing was hilarious at times, and while attacking, they left quite a Swiss cheese in defense. Secondly, Juan Aurich shouldn't be too affected by the high altitude, as they are used to playing in such conditions, in the Peruvian cities of Cusco, Huancayo, Ayacucho, Arequipa, etc, and usually with good results. Bottom line here is that I rate Peruvian football better than the Bolivian one, and Juan Aurich, as league champions, have to make their superiority count. All their players should be rested, due to the internal problems of the Peruvian league, and the team should now switch to their 'Cup chip'. The coach is confident, and so am I, especially with the handicap being unrealistic here. GL!
Juan Aurich (+1.5 AH) @ 1.86, 5/10
Result: 2-1, WON
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