Paraguay - Venezuela

Copa America

At first I said I will skip both semi-finals of the Copa America, but the odds on Paraguay are quite nice, and I definitely think it's worth a shot on them. Can't say I really like Paraguay, but Venezuela I like even less. I consider the Vinotinto team as the luckiest in this competition. Scored 2 goals in the last minutes to equalize Paraguay in the group stage, and had imense luck in the qarters against Chile, as they had some serious problems to hold Chile's offense at bay, but they managed to clear the ball off the line three times, while Chile also hit the post two times. Their luck is surely bound to end, and Paraguay already proved they can put a lot of problems to them, and if they will have 3-1 again today, I seriously doubt they will lose focus like in the group match. Against Brazil, Paraguay made a quiet match, didn't really threaten the opposition's goalkeeper, and only qualified at penalties, after Brazil missed all 4 shots. But today everything should be different, with Venezuela defending, and Paraguay looking for the goal. As I said, Paraguay showed in their previous match they are the better team, and since this is a semi-final, their focus should be at maximum. GL!

Paraguay (-0.5 AH) @ 2.05, 3/10

Result: 0-0, LOST

Chile - Venezuela

Copa America

I see some nice value here. First of all, the current odds are around 0.10 higher than the opening ones for a Chile win. Then, I can only imagine the odds if these teams would have met in the first match of the group stage, and I see them as something around 1.40. The fact is that Venezuela indeed managed to surprise a lot of people by being one of the first teams to qualify into the quarter finals. But I don't see them as being anything special. Played a solid defense against Brazil, snatched a win against Ecuador (one of the poorest teams in South America, in my opinion), and then miraculously drew level with Paraguay, scoring 2 goals in the last three minutes. Against Chile, I expect them to play defensively once again, but I doubt they'll be as successful as they were against Brazil. Chile plays more organized, and more team-like, then Brazil, and they are able to break any defense. They won 2/3 matches in the group, with the minimum difference, and maybe could have won even against Uruguay, as they were the better team for much of the game. The only problem for them is the lack of top class strikers (Suazo couldn't score if his life depended on it), but they have some players than could easily be the deciding factor by themselves, like Alexis Sanchez. Venezuela's nice trip in Copa America should come to an end here, as Chile needs to step up a gear, and confirm their status as title favorites. GL!

Chile (-0.5 AH) @ 1.72, 4/10

Result: 1-2, LOST

Argentina - Uruguay

Copa America

Don't think the odds will change too much anymore for this match, and even though the odds on the handicap have dropped, I still find this bet as being a very solid one. Argentina didn't show anything at all in the group stage, thus the draws with Bolivia and Colombia (in a match that they could have easily lost, the Colombians missing some very clear chances). The only good match for them was in the last round, 3-0 with Costa Rica, but keep in mind that the Central Americans were using their U-23 squad. The difference in class was huge, so it was really a no-sweat win for the hosts. But now, things will be totally different. Uruguay is one of the best teams in South America (best performance at last year's World Cup, where they took 4th place), and are a team that can beat anyone in their day. It's true, they also weren't at the top of their game in the group, but I expect them to raise their profile a bit now. The main problem for them was the finishing... had a ton of chances against Mexico, but only managed to convert one. But the attack can only get better, as they have pure quality players up-front, and they can deliver when they need it. Argentina honestly doesn't scare anyone anymore, and this is more like a bet against them, rather than a bet on Uruguay. This match has some nice chances for a surprise, as I expect Uruguay to qualify for the semi-finals, but I'm taking the safe road, and taking this +1 handicap. GL!

Uruguay (+1 AH) @ 1.78, 4/10

Result: 1-1, WON

Uruguay - Mexico

Copa America

Uruguay have been kind of disappointing so far, with only 2 points after their matches against Chile and Peru, so in this last round of the group stage, they are more or less in a must-win situation. They could indeed qualify from the third place, but it's way to risky to play it like that, and since they are facing the only team with zero points after 2 rounds, I'm sure they'll go for the kill. Uruguay has huge quality up-front, and even though they haven't been anything special so far, I think it's time they start showing some skills. Extra-motivation for them could be that a win here will also very likely see them winning the group, as Chile and Peru have a tough match (I expect a draw there), so a two-goal win over Mexico should be enough. The Mexicans have lived up to their 'expectations', and haven't been able to take a single point from Chile and Peru. The lack of experience from within their ranks had a major impact on the team, as the players simply looked unable to cope with their more prestigious opponents. And so far they haven't had to deal with Suarez, Forlan or Cavanni. Should be a big motivation for Uruguay here, and I expect them to go for the kill. GL!

Uruguay (-0.75 AH) @ 1.74, 5/10

Result: 1-0, HALF WON

Argentina - Costa Rica

Copa America

I stood away from Argentina so far, and my original plan was to do so for the entire tournament. But honestly, I don't see them failing again against this young Costa Rica team. Yes, they've let down their supporters in the first two games, against Bolivia (1-1) and Colombia (0-0, but they could have easily lost), and they are looking far from being a team. No tactical plans, no ideas, they are just relying on Messi to spark something... but Messi is a big zero whenever he plays for the national team (probably because Xavi and Iniesta are no longer behind him, and Mascherano and the others don't have the same effect). But... they are in a very fragile position now, with just 2 points, so a win here is a must, otherwise the qualification to the quarter-finals will be out of their hands, and pretty much impossible to obtain. And we can't say Costa Rica is more of a team either. A lot of young players, from the local league, and despite their huge surprise win against Bolivia (also facilitated by a retarded performance from the Bolivians, along 2 red cards), I don't see them standing a chance against the hosts of the tournament (who could also get some help from the referees, if need be). And if you compare some of the players, like Costa, Calvo and Duarte (Costa Rican defenders) with Tevez, Aguero and Lavezzi, the outcome should be pretty obvious. Let's hope logic will prevail this time. GL!

Argentina (-1.5 AH) @ 1.79, 3/10

Result: 3-0, WON