FIFA Club World Cup 2013, Semi-final
Atletico MG (-1.25 AH) @ 1.92, 4/10
Result: 3-1, LOST
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Dec 18, 2013
Real Garcilaso - Universitario
Peru Primera Division, Final
Universitario DNB @ 2.15, 3/10
Result: 0-0, VOID
Universitario DNB @ 2.15, 3/10
Result: 0-0, VOID
Dec 15, 2013
Universitario - Real Garcilaso
Peru Primera Division, Final
Last game of the season in Peru, and the most important one, as it will decide who will take home the champion's crown. Real Garcilaso won the first match 3-2, that's why everybody expects Universitario to be fired up, and as a result the odds dropped quite a bit. But even so, it should be worth to take this bet, as Universitario are sure-fire favorites here for me. They did lose the first match, it's true, but they didn't play bad at all, and almost neutralized Garcilaso's huge altitude advantage (the match was played on a neutral ground, because there was a higher altitude there than in Cuzco). Looking at the expected line-up, Universitario looks to be playing quite offensively, with Ruidiaz up-front, who will be supported by Torres, Gonzalez and Fernandez. Garcilaso has been disappointing away from home in the last few months, winning just at Huancayo (at altitude) and losing 4 games. Slim chances for them, so I'm definitely backing the hosts here. GL!
Universitario (-0.75 AH) @ 1.75, 4/10
Result: 3-0, WON
Last game of the season in Peru, and the most important one, as it will decide who will take home the champion's crown. Real Garcilaso won the first match 3-2, that's why everybody expects Universitario to be fired up, and as a result the odds dropped quite a bit. But even so, it should be worth to take this bet, as Universitario are sure-fire favorites here for me. They did lose the first match, it's true, but they didn't play bad at all, and almost neutralized Garcilaso's huge altitude advantage (the match was played on a neutral ground, because there was a higher altitude there than in Cuzco). Looking at the expected line-up, Universitario looks to be playing quite offensively, with Ruidiaz up-front, who will be supported by Torres, Gonzalez and Fernandez. Garcilaso has been disappointing away from home in the last few months, winning just at Huancayo (at altitude) and losing 4 games. Slim chances for them, so I'm definitely backing the hosts here. GL!
Universitario (-0.75 AH) @ 1.75, 4/10
Result: 3-0, WON
Nov 25, 2013
Barcelona - LDU Quito
Ecuador Serie A, Segunda Etapa
The odds are set totally wrong for this match, if you ask me, as I see a rather equal affair. Both teams are hoping of qualifying for a continental cup (tied on points in the general classification, with Barcelona on a qualification spot, due to better goal difference), both had a pretty horrendous second half of the season, and both are somehow recovering their form. Even in the Segunda Etapa's standings, they are fairly evenly matched, with Barcelona holding just a 3 points advantage over LDU. Now, let's check out their results and their form: despite having one of their poorest seasons in recent years, LDU have only lost 4 out of 18 matches, as they excelled in draws: 10. That being said, they drew 6 of their last 10 games, and only lost once. And from those draws, 2 were against Emelec and 2 were against Deportivo Quito, both of them being more solid teams than Barcelona, which shows us that LDU are no pushovers, and can really focus when it comes to big games. And besides all of this, Barcelona and LDU also have a long history of equal matches, since out of their last 15 games, they recorded 9 draws. Hopefully, the trend will continue, and considering all the facts, I'll say it again: Barcelona are by no means such big favorites as the bookies try to make them. GL!
LDU (+0.5 AH) @ 2.05, 4/10
Result: 1-0, LOST
The odds are set totally wrong for this match, if you ask me, as I see a rather equal affair. Both teams are hoping of qualifying for a continental cup (tied on points in the general classification, with Barcelona on a qualification spot, due to better goal difference), both had a pretty horrendous second half of the season, and both are somehow recovering their form. Even in the Segunda Etapa's standings, they are fairly evenly matched, with Barcelona holding just a 3 points advantage over LDU. Now, let's check out their results and their form: despite having one of their poorest seasons in recent years, LDU have only lost 4 out of 18 matches, as they excelled in draws: 10. That being said, they drew 6 of their last 10 games, and only lost once. And from those draws, 2 were against Emelec and 2 were against Deportivo Quito, both of them being more solid teams than Barcelona, which shows us that LDU are no pushovers, and can really focus when it comes to big games. And besides all of this, Barcelona and LDU also have a long history of equal matches, since out of their last 15 games, they recorded 9 draws. Hopefully, the trend will continue, and considering all the facts, I'll say it again: Barcelona are by no means such big favorites as the bookies try to make them. GL!
LDU (+0.5 AH) @ 2.05, 4/10
Result: 1-0, LOST
Nov 14, 2013
Jordan - Uruguay
World Cup 2014, Play-off
Not enough time for a proper analysis, but the difference in quality is obviously too high in Uruguay's favor. It's not an easy task playing in Asian countries, but when you have the number of stars that Uruguay has (Godin, Caceres, Rodriguez, Alvaro Pereira, Forlan, Suarez and Cavani), things will be much easier. Nothing special about Jordan, and a 2-0 win for the South Americans is the minimum that I can see. GL!
Uruguay (-1.5 AH) @ 1.79, 4/10
Result: 0-5, WON
Not enough time for a proper analysis, but the difference in quality is obviously too high in Uruguay's favor. It's not an easy task playing in Asian countries, but when you have the number of stars that Uruguay has (Godin, Caceres, Rodriguez, Alvaro Pereira, Forlan, Suarez and Cavani), things will be much easier. Nothing special about Jordan, and a 2-0 win for the South Americans is the minimum that I can see. GL!
Uruguay (-1.5 AH) @ 1.79, 4/10
Result: 0-5, WON
Nov 10, 2013
Macara - Independiente
Ecuador Serie A, Segunda Etapa
Independiente have it all to play for: With a win today, they could catch-up to Emelec at the top of the table, or at least they can keep putting pressure on them. After that, they also have to secure their participation in the two cups, Libertadores and Sudamericana, and they can clinch both of them by finishing the year on 2nd place in the aggregate table (in case a final won't be played - if Emelec wins the Segunda Etapa). They currently have 5 points over the 3rd place, with 5 games remaining, so there's no place for a wrong step. On the other side, we have a Macara side that are all but mathematically relegated. They are 14 points behind the safe zone, so we can say that it's impossible for them to get something. Even more, the coach left for Argentina, taking a couple of players with him, while a few other players have been removed from the team, trying to reconstruct it's squad. That's why today we'll only see around 3-4 of their main regular players. They will probably try to prove themselves, but morale is low, and they'll face a very solid team that is gunning for the title. Also, Independiente have 3/3 against Manta this season, with a goal difference of 11-1. The odds aren't great at all, but the away win should be a lock. GL!
Independiente (-0.75 AH) @ 1.80, 4/10
Result: 2-0, LOST
Independiente have it all to play for: With a win today, they could catch-up to Emelec at the top of the table, or at least they can keep putting pressure on them. After that, they also have to secure their participation in the two cups, Libertadores and Sudamericana, and they can clinch both of them by finishing the year on 2nd place in the aggregate table (in case a final won't be played - if Emelec wins the Segunda Etapa). They currently have 5 points over the 3rd place, with 5 games remaining, so there's no place for a wrong step. On the other side, we have a Macara side that are all but mathematically relegated. They are 14 points behind the safe zone, so we can say that it's impossible for them to get something. Even more, the coach left for Argentina, taking a couple of players with him, while a few other players have been removed from the team, trying to reconstruct it's squad. That's why today we'll only see around 3-4 of their main regular players. They will probably try to prove themselves, but morale is low, and they'll face a very solid team that is gunning for the title. Also, Independiente have 3/3 against Manta this season, with a goal difference of 11-1. The odds aren't great at all, but the away win should be a lock. GL!
Independiente (-0.75 AH) @ 1.80, 4/10
Result: 2-0, LOST
Deportivo Cuenca - Manta
Ecuador Serie A, Segunda Etapa
Deportivo Cuenca are in all kinds of problems, as they have a list of 6 players unavailable for this match (4 of them suspended and 2 not taken into account). But from those 6, we only need to mention 4, who are all key players. Their main absences are: defenders Andres Lopez (16/2) and Edder Fuertes (15/0), midfielder Gregory Gonzalez (15/0) and forward Estupinan (9/3). So they should be taking quite a hit for this match, and I'm sure they will struggle at least a bit, in front of an opponent that is never like a walk in the park. It is true, both teams have been in poor form recently (Cuenca has 7 games without a win, while Manta have 5 - but 4 of them have been defeats), and Manta are very poor away from home, but under these conditions, I do favor them to take at least one point. None of them have been showing anything solid, so it should be considered an equal game at least, therefore the current line has value (I would have set the lines to 0.25). Besides, Manta should also have a morale advantage here, as they haven't lost this year to Cuenca, and have won 2 out of 3 direct matches. GL!
Manta (+0.5 AH) @ 1.91, 4/10
Result: 1-1, WON
Deportivo Cuenca are in all kinds of problems, as they have a list of 6 players unavailable for this match (4 of them suspended and 2 not taken into account). But from those 6, we only need to mention 4, who are all key players. Their main absences are: defenders Andres Lopez (16/2) and Edder Fuertes (15/0), midfielder Gregory Gonzalez (15/0) and forward Estupinan (9/3). So they should be taking quite a hit for this match, and I'm sure they will struggle at least a bit, in front of an opponent that is never like a walk in the park. It is true, both teams have been in poor form recently (Cuenca has 7 games without a win, while Manta have 5 - but 4 of them have been defeats), and Manta are very poor away from home, but under these conditions, I do favor them to take at least one point. None of them have been showing anything solid, so it should be considered an equal game at least, therefore the current line has value (I would have set the lines to 0.25). Besides, Manta should also have a morale advantage here, as they haven't lost this year to Cuenca, and have won 2 out of 3 direct matches. GL!
Manta (+0.5 AH) @ 1.91, 4/10
Result: 1-1, WON
Cienciano - Juan Aurich
Peru Primera Division, Liguilla B
Another match where I don't really agree with the odds. Cienciano has the altitude advantage, but that's it. Quality and form are definitely on Aurich's side, who - before last round - had a run of 8 consecutive games without a loss. And it could have went on for a while longer, but they had to face leaders and finalists Universitario, so they can't be criticized too much. Meanwhile, Cienciano is dropping points all over the place, including at home, and away at teams as poor as Jose Galvez. So it's rather strange for me to set Cienciano up as favorites solely due to the altitude, because the first question that comes into mind is: since when haven't they beaten Aurich? And the answer is: from 2011. That means that in the last 6 mutual matches, Aurich won 5 and drew the other one. And one win and the draw were taken in Cusco, under similar conditions. And right now Aurich is gunning for Copa Sudamericana (4 points behind the last qualifying spot), so for sure they'll focus and play their best game. GL!
Juan Aurich (+0.25 AH) @ 2.16, 3/10
Result: 2-1, LOST
Another match where I don't really agree with the odds. Cienciano has the altitude advantage, but that's it. Quality and form are definitely on Aurich's side, who - before last round - had a run of 8 consecutive games without a loss. And it could have went on for a while longer, but they had to face leaders and finalists Universitario, so they can't be criticized too much. Meanwhile, Cienciano is dropping points all over the place, including at home, and away at teams as poor as Jose Galvez. So it's rather strange for me to set Cienciano up as favorites solely due to the altitude, because the first question that comes into mind is: since when haven't they beaten Aurich? And the answer is: from 2011. That means that in the last 6 mutual matches, Aurich won 5 and drew the other one. And one win and the draw were taken in Cusco, under similar conditions. And right now Aurich is gunning for Copa Sudamericana (4 points behind the last qualifying spot), so for sure they'll focus and play their best game. GL!
Juan Aurich (+0.25 AH) @ 2.16, 3/10
Result: 2-1, LOST
Sporting Cristal - Real Garcilaso
Peru Primera Division, Liguilla A
In Peru, there are just 4 rounds left, so this match has an extra-importance for everybody. Garcilaso are 2 points ahead of Cristal at the top of the table, so a home win here will see a change of leader, while it will also open the door for Alianza Lima to get in the title fight. Garcilaso had a very solid and consistent first half of the season, capitalizing on last year's success and form, but recently, ever since the Liguilla has started, their performances have dropped quite a lot, winning just 2 games, dropping points at home and conceding a couple of goals every match (something very unusual for them, judging by their play in the last 2 years). That's why the odds are rather rightfully set here, as Cristal has the better team and also is more in form. Cristal probably have one of the best squads in Peru, and I would name them favorites to win Liguilla A. Also, in these matches, the points usually remain at home, but we've seen in last year's final that, when it mattered the most, Cristal was able to win away as well. GL!
Cristal (-0.75 AH) @ 1.97, 3/10
Result: 5-2, WON
In Peru, there are just 4 rounds left, so this match has an extra-importance for everybody. Garcilaso are 2 points ahead of Cristal at the top of the table, so a home win here will see a change of leader, while it will also open the door for Alianza Lima to get in the title fight. Garcilaso had a very solid and consistent first half of the season, capitalizing on last year's success and form, but recently, ever since the Liguilla has started, their performances have dropped quite a lot, winning just 2 games, dropping points at home and conceding a couple of goals every match (something very unusual for them, judging by their play in the last 2 years). That's why the odds are rather rightfully set here, as Cristal has the better team and also is more in form. Cristal probably have one of the best squads in Peru, and I would name them favorites to win Liguilla A. Also, in these matches, the points usually remain at home, but we've seen in last year's final that, when it mattered the most, Cristal was able to win away as well. GL!
Cristal (-0.75 AH) @ 1.97, 3/10
Result: 5-2, WON
Nov 7, 2013
Atletico Nacional - Sao Paulo
Copa Sudamericana 2013, Quarter-finals
It worked the first time, so why not give it another try now, since nothing has been decided yet in this round. Sao Paulo took the lead in the first leg, but it's a fragile 3-2 lead, and Atletico are aiming high, since they have two away goals scored. So neither team can afford to sit back and wait, especially Sao Paulo, who's defense isn't one of their strong suits (within their last 4 games, there have been a total of 20 goals scored). And this time around, unlike the previous round, they are using pretty much the best squad available: we'll see on the pitch both Luis Fabiano and Aloisio (the two of them scored a total of 16 goals throughout the year), along Jadson and Antonio Carlos, who scored 2 goals in the first leg. Ganso is the only big absence, due to his suspension. So it's a rather offensive team, and I expect Sao Paulo to play their game, especially since the altitude in Medellin isn't too high. Atletico are even less likely to sit back, because they are behind, and they need at least a goal. They proved in the first leg to be a match for the Brazilians, so the home field should provide a boost. If we have a quick goal, this could turn into a goal-fiesta... this line is just too good to miss. GL!
over 2.25 goals @ 2.08, 4/10
Result: 0-0, LOST
It worked the first time, so why not give it another try now, since nothing has been decided yet in this round. Sao Paulo took the lead in the first leg, but it's a fragile 3-2 lead, and Atletico are aiming high, since they have two away goals scored. So neither team can afford to sit back and wait, especially Sao Paulo, who's defense isn't one of their strong suits (within their last 4 games, there have been a total of 20 goals scored). And this time around, unlike the previous round, they are using pretty much the best squad available: we'll see on the pitch both Luis Fabiano and Aloisio (the two of them scored a total of 16 goals throughout the year), along Jadson and Antonio Carlos, who scored 2 goals in the first leg. Ganso is the only big absence, due to his suspension. So it's a rather offensive team, and I expect Sao Paulo to play their game, especially since the altitude in Medellin isn't too high. Atletico are even less likely to sit back, because they are behind, and they need at least a goal. They proved in the first leg to be a match for the Brazilians, so the home field should provide a boost. If we have a quick goal, this could turn into a goal-fiesta... this line is just too good to miss. GL!
over 2.25 goals @ 2.08, 4/10
Result: 0-0, LOST
Nov 4, 2013
Guarani - Olimpia
Paraguay Primera Division, Clausura
Both teams started the season in awful fashion, but recently, at least Guarani showed signs of recovery. The numbers speak for themselves: in the last 10 games, Guarani won 5 (including games against Libertad and Olimpia), while Olimpia won only 2, against bottom teams like Cerro PF and Carapegua. It's no secret that Olimpia is knee-deep in problems, both administrative and financial, and it looks like there's no easy way out. The coach received backing from the board, having his contract extended, and the main blame is taken by the squad, which is also undergoing a renovation process. Therefore, once again, we will see on the field, from the first minute, players like Marcos Fingst (2/0), Alex Garcete (1/0) or Walter Clar (1/0). All of them are youngsters, barely breaking into the team, and I doubt they'll have what it takes to shift the balance in a derby. Guarani has the experience, in this case, so for sure they have the advantage. Also, in the previous 3 encounters between the two in 2013, Guarani won 2 and lost 1, and the goal difference over those 3 games is 9-4 in Guarani's favor. It's a Clasico, and I usually tend to stay away from these games, but this looks simply too good to skip: Olimpia plagued by problems and using youth players, Guarani in recovery of pace, and also the safe-line that the DNB provides. GL!
Guarani DNB @ 1.94, 4/10
Result: 2-0, WON
Both teams started the season in awful fashion, but recently, at least Guarani showed signs of recovery. The numbers speak for themselves: in the last 10 games, Guarani won 5 (including games against Libertad and Olimpia), while Olimpia won only 2, against bottom teams like Cerro PF and Carapegua. It's no secret that Olimpia is knee-deep in problems, both administrative and financial, and it looks like there's no easy way out. The coach received backing from the board, having his contract extended, and the main blame is taken by the squad, which is also undergoing a renovation process. Therefore, once again, we will see on the field, from the first minute, players like Marcos Fingst (2/0), Alex Garcete (1/0) or Walter Clar (1/0). All of them are youngsters, barely breaking into the team, and I doubt they'll have what it takes to shift the balance in a derby. Guarani has the experience, in this case, so for sure they have the advantage. Also, in the previous 3 encounters between the two in 2013, Guarani won 2 and lost 1, and the goal difference over those 3 games is 9-4 in Guarani's favor. It's a Clasico, and I usually tend to stay away from these games, but this looks simply too good to skip: Olimpia plagued by problems and using youth players, Guarani in recovery of pace, and also the safe-line that the DNB provides. GL!
Guarani DNB @ 1.94, 4/10
Result: 2-0, WON
Alianza Lima - Sporting Cristal
Peru Primera Division, Liguilla A
Huge match in Lima this evening, as Alianza and Cristal are fighting for the chance to stay in the race for the final, and the result of this match could very well mean the end of one's hopes. Since Garcilaso won yesterday as expected, the only option left for these two teams to keep on hoping would be to win. Cristal could retake the lead and tie Garcilaso on points, while Alianza could move up to 2nd place, just 2 points behind the leader, and also overtaking Cristal in the table. And looking at the overall picture, this means a lot more to Alianza: they have already played their two games against Garcilaso, so if they don't win here, their chances will be really slim (this is also their second match against Cristal), and they'll need to wait for a miracle to happen. Cristal still has the home game against Garcilaso, so they could still catch them, but the fact that Alianza will overtake them could further complicate things. So a draw would definitely suit them, but it would mean that Alianza are pretty much buried. That is why I doubt this will be a 'wait-and-see' match, and normally, the hosts should try to take control and attack, while this will definitely open up some spaces for Cristal. And it's worth mentioning their attacking power, as they have the best offense in the league, and the 3 forwards that are expected to start the match (Avila, Ross and Chiroque) have 21 goals scored between themselves. GL!
over 2.25 goals @ 1.92, 3/10
Result: 0-0, LOST
Huge match in Lima this evening, as Alianza and Cristal are fighting for the chance to stay in the race for the final, and the result of this match could very well mean the end of one's hopes. Since Garcilaso won yesterday as expected, the only option left for these two teams to keep on hoping would be to win. Cristal could retake the lead and tie Garcilaso on points, while Alianza could move up to 2nd place, just 2 points behind the leader, and also overtaking Cristal in the table. And looking at the overall picture, this means a lot more to Alianza: they have already played their two games against Garcilaso, so if they don't win here, their chances will be really slim (this is also their second match against Cristal), and they'll need to wait for a miracle to happen. Cristal still has the home game against Garcilaso, so they could still catch them, but the fact that Alianza will overtake them could further complicate things. So a draw would definitely suit them, but it would mean that Alianza are pretty much buried. That is why I doubt this will be a 'wait-and-see' match, and normally, the hosts should try to take control and attack, while this will definitely open up some spaces for Cristal. And it's worth mentioning their attacking power, as they have the best offense in the league, and the 3 forwards that are expected to start the match (Avila, Ross and Chiroque) have 21 goals scored between themselves. GL!
over 2.25 goals @ 1.92, 3/10
Result: 0-0, LOST
Nov 3, 2013
Nacional - Sp. Luqueno
Paraguay Primera Division, Clausura
I'm expecting quite an entertaining round in Paraguay, and as a result, I fancy 3 bets today (quite a lot for my standards, but I'm feeling confident in these matches). First stop will be at Nacional - Luqueno. Both teams are in good form, although far away from the top of the table. However, both have quite a lot to play for, as both are gunning for a Sudamericana qualification (Nacional needs to finish with more points than Cerro in the aggregate table - currently 6 behind with a game in hand, while Luqueno needs to reach 6th place - 9 points behind at the moment, with 2 games in hand). Nacional has 3 consecutive wins, and that marked a recovery for them, after a very bad start. They should have some confidence back now, and normally, quality-wise, they should be no match for Luqueno. The visitors also have 3 wins from their last 4 (and 5 wins from their last 7 games), but they played a lot of home games (5) and had a relatively easy schedule (playing against bottom teams like Rubio Nu, Sol de America, Cerro PF and Carapegua - who actually beat them at home). So, in my mind, their great string of results is rather inconclusive, therefore I'm going with the quality today, especially since they should have loads of confidence now. GL!
Nacional (-1 AH) @ 2.03, 3/10
Result: 0-0, LOST
I'm expecting quite an entertaining round in Paraguay, and as a result, I fancy 3 bets today (quite a lot for my standards, but I'm feeling confident in these matches). First stop will be at Nacional - Luqueno. Both teams are in good form, although far away from the top of the table. However, both have quite a lot to play for, as both are gunning for a Sudamericana qualification (Nacional needs to finish with more points than Cerro in the aggregate table - currently 6 behind with a game in hand, while Luqueno needs to reach 6th place - 9 points behind at the moment, with 2 games in hand). Nacional has 3 consecutive wins, and that marked a recovery for them, after a very bad start. They should have some confidence back now, and normally, quality-wise, they should be no match for Luqueno. The visitors also have 3 wins from their last 4 (and 5 wins from their last 7 games), but they played a lot of home games (5) and had a relatively easy schedule (playing against bottom teams like Rubio Nu, Sol de America, Cerro PF and Carapegua - who actually beat them at home). So, in my mind, their great string of results is rather inconclusive, therefore I'm going with the quality today, especially since they should have loads of confidence now. GL!
Nacional (-1 AH) @ 2.03, 3/10
Result: 0-0, LOST
Deportivo Capiata - Sp. Carapegua
Paraguay Primera Division, Clausura
Capiata is having the season of a life-time. They are on second place for the moment, and even though they have practically zero chances to win the title (12 points behind the leaders), they are almost certain of a Sudamericana participation, and even have some chances to go to Libertadores (they are 5 points behind Guarani). So there's still a lot to play for. Also, they are one of the two teams (along with the leaders) to be still undefeated in their home games, and have won 7 of their last 10 matches. So they have a good advantage going into this match, especially since Carapegua are among the worst travelers in the league, despite a recent glimpse of good form (they won at Luqueno, drew at home against an awful Cerro PF, and won last week against a Libertad side that has it's mind on Copa Sudamericana). If we take away those last 3 games, Carapegua look simply awful, and it's no surprise seeing them rock-bottom in the relegation table. It's true that Capiata lost their last game, 2-4 at Luqueno, but they had to do without a few key players, including forwards Dionisio Perez and Fabio Escobar, which will return for this game. There should be a clear difference between these two teams, and once again, I'm going with quality and form. GL!
Capiata (-0.75 AH) @ 1.92, 3/10
Result: 3-1, WON
Capiata is having the season of a life-time. They are on second place for the moment, and even though they have practically zero chances to win the title (12 points behind the leaders), they are almost certain of a Sudamericana participation, and even have some chances to go to Libertadores (they are 5 points behind Guarani). So there's still a lot to play for. Also, they are one of the two teams (along with the leaders) to be still undefeated in their home games, and have won 7 of their last 10 matches. So they have a good advantage going into this match, especially since Carapegua are among the worst travelers in the league, despite a recent glimpse of good form (they won at Luqueno, drew at home against an awful Cerro PF, and won last week against a Libertad side that has it's mind on Copa Sudamericana). If we take away those last 3 games, Carapegua look simply awful, and it's no surprise seeing them rock-bottom in the relegation table. It's true that Capiata lost their last game, 2-4 at Luqueno, but they had to do without a few key players, including forwards Dionisio Perez and Fabio Escobar, which will return for this game. There should be a clear difference between these two teams, and once again, I'm going with quality and form. GL!
Capiata (-0.75 AH) @ 1.92, 3/10
Result: 3-1, WON
Cerro Porteno - General Diaz
Paraguay Primera Division, Clausura
I'm taking a slight risk here, as Cerro Porteno can comfortably take it easy until the rest of the season. Having a 9-points advantage over the second pace pretty much assures them of the title, despite having to play 7 more games. But Diaz's recent form just makes me take this bet. They enjoyed an incredible run this season, but they could have never been considered one of the big teams. Discipline and will were their main advantages, and they exceed their limit by far. But recently, they went back to their original condition, as they have lost their last 3 games. The opposition wasn't from the bottom half, that's true, as they were beaten by Capiata and Guarani (both at home, Guarani actually trashing them 1-4) and away at Nacional. Clear quality difference, and that difference can only grow bigger against the leaders. As I've said, Cerro doesn't necessarily needs to win, but it will be one more step toward the title, and with Diaz in the rebound stage, it's safe to assume that the home win is a lock. GL!
Cerro (-1 AH) @ 1.92, 3/10
Result: 2-1, VOID
I'm taking a slight risk here, as Cerro Porteno can comfortably take it easy until the rest of the season. Having a 9-points advantage over the second pace pretty much assures them of the title, despite having to play 7 more games. But Diaz's recent form just makes me take this bet. They enjoyed an incredible run this season, but they could have never been considered one of the big teams. Discipline and will were their main advantages, and they exceed their limit by far. But recently, they went back to their original condition, as they have lost their last 3 games. The opposition wasn't from the bottom half, that's true, as they were beaten by Capiata and Guarani (both at home, Guarani actually trashing them 1-4) and away at Nacional. Clear quality difference, and that difference can only grow bigger against the leaders. As I've said, Cerro doesn't necessarily needs to win, but it will be one more step toward the title, and with Diaz in the rebound stage, it's safe to assume that the home win is a lock. GL!
Cerro (-1 AH) @ 1.92, 3/10
Result: 2-1, VOID
Nov 2, 2013
Real Garcilaso - Union Comercio
Peru Primera Division, Liguilla A
Garcilaso was going in a straight line for another final, but something happened halfway through the road, and instead of being with one foot in the final, they risk losing everything. They have 5 games without a win, and only won 2 of the last 10 matches, so they dropped the lead, and are now tied on points with Sporting Cristal. Their recent schedule wasn't an easy one, but that's still no excuse, and they need to regain their focus if they are to fight for the title again. That was the main order of business in the squad as well, and there is no better moment for that than today. Their opponents for today, Union Comercio, are dead-last in the group and deep in the relegation zone, 6 points behind salvation. But despite their lowly condition, they did manage to pull off some nice results recently, like a 3-1 win at Huancayo, or a 1-0 win at Sporting Cristal. However, today should be slightly different: despite their recent win at Huancayo, they don't feel comfortable playing at altitude, as they've lost 6 out of their 8 matches played in the mountains. They have also lost all 3 matches played against Garcilaso in Cusco, and since today I'm expecting an all-out approach from the hosts, they should be making quick work out of Comercio, especially since they could retake the lead, given that Cristal has a very difficult match to play against Alianza Lima. GL!
Garcilaso (-1.25 AH) @ 1.96, 3/10
Result: 4-0, WON
Garcilaso was going in a straight line for another final, but something happened halfway through the road, and instead of being with one foot in the final, they risk losing everything. They have 5 games without a win, and only won 2 of the last 10 matches, so they dropped the lead, and are now tied on points with Sporting Cristal. Their recent schedule wasn't an easy one, but that's still no excuse, and they need to regain their focus if they are to fight for the title again. That was the main order of business in the squad as well, and there is no better moment for that than today. Their opponents for today, Union Comercio, are dead-last in the group and deep in the relegation zone, 6 points behind salvation. But despite their lowly condition, they did manage to pull off some nice results recently, like a 3-1 win at Huancayo, or a 1-0 win at Sporting Cristal. However, today should be slightly different: despite their recent win at Huancayo, they don't feel comfortable playing at altitude, as they've lost 6 out of their 8 matches played in the mountains. They have also lost all 3 matches played against Garcilaso in Cusco, and since today I'm expecting an all-out approach from the hosts, they should be making quick work out of Comercio, especially since they could retake the lead, given that Cristal has a very difficult match to play against Alianza Lima. GL!
Garcilaso (-1.25 AH) @ 1.96, 3/10
Result: 4-0, WON
Sao Paulo - Atletico Nacional
Copa Sudamericana, Quarter-finals
There was no time for a preview.
over 2 goals @ 1.83, 4/10
Result: 3-2, WON
There was no time for a preview.
over 2 goals @ 1.83, 4/10
Result: 3-2, WON
Oct 28, 2013
Sol de America - Cerro Porteno
Paraguay Primera Division, Clausura
Cerro Porteno are walking a perfect path towards the title. The road ahead is still long, so they can't take anything for granted yet, but with an 8-points advantage, they can take on the upcoming matches without a lot of pressure. They are undefeated and can boast with the best attack in the league. And they definitely don't want to slow down and decrease their rhythm, therefore for today's game, they will be using their best players available, and no one will be rested. That puts them in a solid position, and are rightfully favorites. However, with some very low odds for a visiting team, I'll go for the over, because Sol is a team with potential. They aren't going well at all, being 3rd from bottom, and overall they lack quality, that's no secret. But both the players and the manager are trying their best, and we've seen Sol very often employing an offensive style of football, especially when playing on their own stadium (they have the best home offense). However, that obviously leaves a lot of gaps behind, and without possessing a solid defensive lines, they are very vulnerable - they also have the second worst defense in home games. So, I expect Cerro to come here without any pressure, trying to make their usual game... Sol also has no pressure, as it is almost impossible for them to relegate, so it should be quite an entertaining match. GL!
over 2.5 goals @ 1.88, 4/10
Result: 1-1, LOST
Cerro Porteno are walking a perfect path towards the title. The road ahead is still long, so they can't take anything for granted yet, but with an 8-points advantage, they can take on the upcoming matches without a lot of pressure. They are undefeated and can boast with the best attack in the league. And they definitely don't want to slow down and decrease their rhythm, therefore for today's game, they will be using their best players available, and no one will be rested. That puts them in a solid position, and are rightfully favorites. However, with some very low odds for a visiting team, I'll go for the over, because Sol is a team with potential. They aren't going well at all, being 3rd from bottom, and overall they lack quality, that's no secret. But both the players and the manager are trying their best, and we've seen Sol very often employing an offensive style of football, especially when playing on their own stadium (they have the best home offense). However, that obviously leaves a lot of gaps behind, and without possessing a solid defensive lines, they are very vulnerable - they also have the second worst defense in home games. So, I expect Cerro to come here without any pressure, trying to make their usual game... Sol also has no pressure, as it is almost impossible for them to relegate, so it should be quite an entertaining match. GL!
over 2.5 goals @ 1.88, 4/10
Result: 1-1, LOST
Oct 23, 2013
Herediano - Cruz Azul
CONCACAF Champions League, Group Stage
Cruz Azul is facing this last round with a perfect score, and they are all but qualified. With a 3 points advantage over Herediano, a 3-0 in the direct match and a +3 advantage with the goal difference, only a disaster would stop Cruz Azul from qualifying. They can draw, they can even lose by a certain margin, and they would still qualify. But even so, if we look at the squad they picked for the travel to Costa Rica, we can see that they are treating this match rather seriously. It won't be their best squad, obviously (Mexican clubs rarely use all of their best players), but there are a lot of big names there, as they have chosen 7 key players to take on this match (including Julio Dominguez, Gerardo Torrado, Luis Perea and Pavone). No word yet on the official starting line-up, but I'm sure we'll see a lot of those key players, for a simple reason: there's no point in making them take the trip, if you're not going to play them. Herediano did an OK job as well, winning both matches against Valencia Leogane, but that's not something to count here. Cruz Azul beat them clearly in the home game, and even though today they don't need to win, Herediano could lose focus as well, as a miracle win is highly unlikely. GL!
Cruz Azul (-0.25 AH) @ 1.77, 4/10
Result: 1-2, WON
Cruz Azul is facing this last round with a perfect score, and they are all but qualified. With a 3 points advantage over Herediano, a 3-0 in the direct match and a +3 advantage with the goal difference, only a disaster would stop Cruz Azul from qualifying. They can draw, they can even lose by a certain margin, and they would still qualify. But even so, if we look at the squad they picked for the travel to Costa Rica, we can see that they are treating this match rather seriously. It won't be their best squad, obviously (Mexican clubs rarely use all of their best players), but there are a lot of big names there, as they have chosen 7 key players to take on this match (including Julio Dominguez, Gerardo Torrado, Luis Perea and Pavone). No word yet on the official starting line-up, but I'm sure we'll see a lot of those key players, for a simple reason: there's no point in making them take the trip, if you're not going to play them. Herediano did an OK job as well, winning both matches against Valencia Leogane, but that's not something to count here. Cruz Azul beat them clearly in the home game, and even though today they don't need to win, Herediano could lose focus as well, as a miracle win is highly unlikely. GL!
Cruz Azul (-0.25 AH) @ 1.77, 4/10
Result: 1-2, WON
Oct 22, 2013
Deportivo Capiata - Olimpia
Paraguay Primera Division, Clausura
The odds movement for this match was crazy: SBO opened with 2.41, went down to 2.18 and now the odds are standing at 2.82. And what's the reason for this change? To be honest, I have no idea, and it makes little sense. To put it simple, Olimpia sucks this season... they've had plenty of problems, both financial and administrative, and they failed miserably on all fields. And all we need to do is to look at their results: 8th in the table of 12, with just 14 points (19 behind the leaders and 11 behind Capiata), with just 1 win away from home, and with only 2 victories in their last 10 games, against lowly Carapegua and rock-bottom Cerro PF. Meanwhile, Capiata is the revelation of the season, with a very solid campaign: 3rd place in the table, and undefeated at home (only a draw with the other revelation, General Diaz; other than that, straight wins). So it's very hard for me to understand these odds, and with a safe DNB, I think there's plenty of value here. GL!
Capiata DNB @ 2.12, 3/10
Result: 1-0, WON
The odds movement for this match was crazy: SBO opened with 2.41, went down to 2.18 and now the odds are standing at 2.82. And what's the reason for this change? To be honest, I have no idea, and it makes little sense. To put it simple, Olimpia sucks this season... they've had plenty of problems, both financial and administrative, and they failed miserably on all fields. And all we need to do is to look at their results: 8th in the table of 12, with just 14 points (19 behind the leaders and 11 behind Capiata), with just 1 win away from home, and with only 2 victories in their last 10 games, against lowly Carapegua and rock-bottom Cerro PF. Meanwhile, Capiata is the revelation of the season, with a very solid campaign: 3rd place in the table, and undefeated at home (only a draw with the other revelation, General Diaz; other than that, straight wins). So it's very hard for me to understand these odds, and with a safe DNB, I think there's plenty of value here. GL!
Capiata DNB @ 2.12, 3/10
Result: 1-0, WON
Oct 16, 2013
Uruguay - Argentina
World Cup 2014, CONMEBOL Qualifiers
The last day of the World Cup qualifiers is upon us, and if we look at it realistically, Uruguay needs a real miracle to achieve a direct qualification. Let's look at the facts: we all know the fixing theory that circulates, involving Chile and Ecuador in a draw that would seal direct qualification for both of them, and if that's the case, Uruguay has no chance. And a draw in Chile is, of course, very much on the cards. And even if one of them wins, they need to do it big, same as Uruguay needs a big win against Argentina. But, there's more to this match: Argentina will be using a mostly-reserves team, as they won't be counting on Messi, Aguero, Higuain, Gago or Mascherano. So they will have to cope without a handful of world class players, while at the same time Uruguay will be at full force (Cavani and Suarez will lead the attack). Even if they won't achieve a direct qualification, for Uruguay this is a derby, and it would indeed be shameful to lose on their own ground against a B squad of Argentina. A win here will bring the players a morale boost, and will leave them in good mood for the play-offs. I believe Uruguay will take the match seriously, and will fight until the very end. And this means that besides going for the victory, they should be also going for the goal difference. Despite the odds having dropped quite a bit, I still think both the home win and the over are solid bets, and I'm going to go against my rule and take two bets on the same match. GL!
Uruguay (-0.5) @ 2.08, 4/10
Result: 3-2, WON
over 2.5 goals @ 1.87, 4/10
Result: 3-2, WON
The last day of the World Cup qualifiers is upon us, and if we look at it realistically, Uruguay needs a real miracle to achieve a direct qualification. Let's look at the facts: we all know the fixing theory that circulates, involving Chile and Ecuador in a draw that would seal direct qualification for both of them, and if that's the case, Uruguay has no chance. And a draw in Chile is, of course, very much on the cards. And even if one of them wins, they need to do it big, same as Uruguay needs a big win against Argentina. But, there's more to this match: Argentina will be using a mostly-reserves team, as they won't be counting on Messi, Aguero, Higuain, Gago or Mascherano. So they will have to cope without a handful of world class players, while at the same time Uruguay will be at full force (Cavani and Suarez will lead the attack). Even if they won't achieve a direct qualification, for Uruguay this is a derby, and it would indeed be shameful to lose on their own ground against a B squad of Argentina. A win here will bring the players a morale boost, and will leave them in good mood for the play-offs. I believe Uruguay will take the match seriously, and will fight until the very end. And this means that besides going for the victory, they should be also going for the goal difference. Despite the odds having dropped quite a bit, I still think both the home win and the over are solid bets, and I'm going to go against my rule and take two bets on the same match. GL!
Uruguay (-0.5) @ 2.08, 4/10
Result: 3-2, WON
over 2.5 goals @ 1.87, 4/10
Result: 3-2, WON
Oct 14, 2013
Venezuela - Paraguay
World Cup 2014, CONMEBOL Qualifiers
Paraguay's torment in these qualification session is almost over, as they only have 2 matches remaining. First up is a trip to Venezuela, where Paraguay have nothing but pride to play for. And this fixture is going bad before even starting, as the players lost a lot of time during (and before) the flight, as there were some technical problems both with the plane and with the airport from the destination. So the resting time will be far from optimal, and since I already doubt their motivation, they will be far from their best. They will be using a lot of experienced players, but the squad is very thin... if anything happens to one of their regulars, they are in even deeper problems (in defense, 3 of 7 players are debutants, and 2 others have below 5 selections; only 3 out of 8 midfielders have more than 10 caps). So I'm expecting rather a shaky team from midfield down. Venezuela have pretty much a full squad, and motivation should be at the top. Their chances of qualification are very slim, and I really doubt they'll pull off a miracle (Uruguay need to lose both of their matches), but I fancy Venezuela's chances today. GL!
Venezuela (-0.5 AH) @ 1.98, 4/10
Result: 1-1, LOST
Paraguay's torment in these qualification session is almost over, as they only have 2 matches remaining. First up is a trip to Venezuela, where Paraguay have nothing but pride to play for. And this fixture is going bad before even starting, as the players lost a lot of time during (and before) the flight, as there were some technical problems both with the plane and with the airport from the destination. So the resting time will be far from optimal, and since I already doubt their motivation, they will be far from their best. They will be using a lot of experienced players, but the squad is very thin... if anything happens to one of their regulars, they are in even deeper problems (in defense, 3 of 7 players are debutants, and 2 others have below 5 selections; only 3 out of 8 midfielders have more than 10 caps). So I'm expecting rather a shaky team from midfield down. Venezuela have pretty much a full squad, and motivation should be at the top. Their chances of qualification are very slim, and I really doubt they'll pull off a miracle (Uruguay need to lose both of their matches), but I fancy Venezuela's chances today. GL!
Venezuela (-0.5 AH) @ 1.98, 4/10
Result: 1-1, LOST
Oct 6, 2013
Nacional - Rubio Nu
Paraguay Primera Division, Clausura
Nacional enjoyed a very slow start of this competition, after becoming Apertura champions, but right now they seem to be getting back to form, and are recovering ground. The title of Clausura is far away, as they are trailing the leaders by 11 points, but they can still very well achieve a place for Copa Sudamericana. Speaking of their recovery, they have won 4 of their last 6 games, and only lost once, against league leaders Cerro Porteno, so we can't fault them too much for that result. To be even fairer, they did have an easy schedule lately, but that definitely improved their confidence, and Rubio Nu is by no means a team that can be a threat. They are simply awful most of the times (their only performance recently was a shocking 0-2 win at Olimpia, but that's pretty much it), and in my opinion, they are one of the main relegation candidates. Still safe for the moment in the standings, but are equal on the average points with Cerro de Franco, so things could change very quickly, especially since Cerro's points count more. I'll go with the quality tonight, as I'm sure Nacional will make their lives easy. Either way, I think the current odds are a bit high for this line. GL!
Nacional (-1 AH) @ 1.99, 4/10
Result: 0-1, LOST
Nacional enjoyed a very slow start of this competition, after becoming Apertura champions, but right now they seem to be getting back to form, and are recovering ground. The title of Clausura is far away, as they are trailing the leaders by 11 points, but they can still very well achieve a place for Copa Sudamericana. Speaking of their recovery, they have won 4 of their last 6 games, and only lost once, against league leaders Cerro Porteno, so we can't fault them too much for that result. To be even fairer, they did have an easy schedule lately, but that definitely improved their confidence, and Rubio Nu is by no means a team that can be a threat. They are simply awful most of the times (their only performance recently was a shocking 0-2 win at Olimpia, but that's pretty much it), and in my opinion, they are one of the main relegation candidates. Still safe for the moment in the standings, but are equal on the average points with Cerro de Franco, so things could change very quickly, especially since Cerro's points count more. I'll go with the quality tonight, as I'm sure Nacional will make their lives easy. Either way, I think the current odds are a bit high for this line. GL!
Nacional (-1 AH) @ 1.99, 4/10
Result: 0-1, LOST
Oct 5, 2013
Deportivo Quito - Manta
Ecuador Serie A, Segunda Etapa
Once
again, I'm going with Deportivo Quito. I still trust them, despite
their recent slumps, and they have proved before that they can get over
their financial and administrative problems. They have a good squad, and
should bounce back. After 3 consecutive defeats and 5 games without
winning, they have dropped
to 7th in the table, therefore a win today is imperative if they want
to stay in touch with the top positions. And we can't blame them too
much for these last games: two of them were at strong home teams like
Cuenca and Manta, one was the Clasico of Quito, and the other two were
against a recovering Barcelona. So the schedule wasn't really in their
favor. But today, they should have it easier... the revenge factor
should be present, as they lost 0-3 at Manta just one month ago, and
Manta are a totally different team when playing away from home, with a
record of 1-0-4. Deportivo has pretty much a full squad, and seem to be
quite motivated, so I trust in a home win today. Hopefully, it will be
by quite a difference. GL!
Deportivo (-1 AH) @ 1.86, 3/10
Result: 1-0, VOID
Result: 1-0, VOID
Sep 24, 2013
Nacional - River
Uruguay Primera Division, Apertura
A
very good match should be awaiting us today in Uruguay, as Nacional and
River will face-off for one of the top positions. Danubio are leaders,
after winning yesterday against Penarol, but that could change today, as
River could leapfrog them if they win. With a win for Nacional, they
will tie River on
second place. Whatever happens, this season promises to be very
interesting. And for this match in particular, the goals should flow
freely. Both teams have very good offensive abilities, with Nacional
having the quality with Gonzalez, Alonso and Porta, while River has the
form with Casas (scored 2 goals in 4 games) and Santos (2 goals in 4
games), along with winger Techera, who also scored 2 goals. Very
offensive line-ups for both teams, and for River this can be seen by
looking at the standings, having score 14 goals and conceding 6 after 4
rounds. Also, in the last 10 mutual games between them, there were 47
goals scored (an average of almost 5 goals per match), and 8 of those
games ended with a minimum of 3 goals. I'll go with the same trend, as
both teams look good enough to provide us a thrilling encounter. GL!
over 2.75 goals @ 2.13, 4/10
Result: 1-0, LOST
Sep 23, 2013
Barcelona - Deportivo Quito
Ecuador Serie A, Segunda Etapa
Once again we have here some very disproportionate odds. These two teams met last week, and in what can be deemed as a surprise, Barcelona won in Quito by 2-1, so Deportivo's thirst for revenge should be fresh. We all know about their problems, financially and managerially, but that hasn't stopped them from playing well above expectations, as they find themselves on 6th place with 17 points (6 more than Barcelona). They were in quite a nice form, up until 4 matches ago, when they lost inexplicably at Cuenca 1-6. After that they drew 0-0 in the Clasico of Quito, against LDU, lost a match where the main players went on strike and lost with Barcelona. But despite their troubles, the players want to recover their form, and finish the season as well as possible. And Barcelona are not a team that can be considered 1.50 favorites. They are simply poor this season, and have only won 2 games from the 11 that they've played (count here a couple of scoreless draws with bottom teams like Quevedo or Macara). Also keep in mind that these clashes are usually very tight affairs, ending in either one-goal wins or draws, so I think that worst case scenario here, we'll have a half-lost. But Quito are much better than that (and better than Barcelona, for that matter), and I'm confident they'll take some points tonight. GL!
Deportivo (+0.75 AH) @ 2.15, 3/10
Result: 2-1, HALF-LOST
Once again we have here some very disproportionate odds. These two teams met last week, and in what can be deemed as a surprise, Barcelona won in Quito by 2-1, so Deportivo's thirst for revenge should be fresh. We all know about their problems, financially and managerially, but that hasn't stopped them from playing well above expectations, as they find themselves on 6th place with 17 points (6 more than Barcelona). They were in quite a nice form, up until 4 matches ago, when they lost inexplicably at Cuenca 1-6. After that they drew 0-0 in the Clasico of Quito, against LDU, lost a match where the main players went on strike and lost with Barcelona. But despite their troubles, the players want to recover their form, and finish the season as well as possible. And Barcelona are not a team that can be considered 1.50 favorites. They are simply poor this season, and have only won 2 games from the 11 that they've played (count here a couple of scoreless draws with bottom teams like Quevedo or Macara). Also keep in mind that these clashes are usually very tight affairs, ending in either one-goal wins or draws, so I think that worst case scenario here, we'll have a half-lost. But Quito are much better than that (and better than Barcelona, for that matter), and I'm confident they'll take some points tonight. GL!
Deportivo (+0.75 AH) @ 2.15, 3/10
Result: 2-1, HALF-LOST
Sep 22, 2013
General Diaz - Sportivo Luqueno
Paraguay Primera Division, Clausura
I've been wrong many times about Diaz, but they just kept on going, and are having a season of a lifetime. They are one of the two teams that are still undefeated, halfway through the season, and if they can keep this going, they have some real chances of taking a place in a continental competition. They are in awesome for, since they are undefeated - as I mentioned previously - and they also have 4 consecutive wins. The only games that they weren't able to win were against the league giants: Cerro Porteno and Libertad, and they also drew against a surprising Capiata (3rd place). Luqueno rose quickly in the table following two consecutive wins, and are now on 5th place. But I won't pay too much attention to that, because they had some easy games recently. Their only wins so far came against rock-bottom Cerro PF, against traditionally poor Rubio Nu and against Sol de America. Hard to name any of those teams 'impressive'. And if we take those last two wins away from them, Luqueno would have just 5 points and would be sitting right next to Cerro PF. And in all honesty, that is pretty much their real value. I'm not really comfortable betting on Diaz, a small team that enjoys a fantastic run, because these runs are bound to end sooner or later, but this here is more like a bet against Luqueno, one of the poorest teams in the league, and the only reason why they are not in the relegation area, is because there are two worse teams. GL!
Diaz (-0.5 AH) @ 1.93, 3/10
Result: 2-1, WON
I've been wrong many times about Diaz, but they just kept on going, and are having a season of a lifetime. They are one of the two teams that are still undefeated, halfway through the season, and if they can keep this going, they have some real chances of taking a place in a continental competition. They are in awesome for, since they are undefeated - as I mentioned previously - and they also have 4 consecutive wins. The only games that they weren't able to win were against the league giants: Cerro Porteno and Libertad, and they also drew against a surprising Capiata (3rd place). Luqueno rose quickly in the table following two consecutive wins, and are now on 5th place. But I won't pay too much attention to that, because they had some easy games recently. Their only wins so far came against rock-bottom Cerro PF, against traditionally poor Rubio Nu and against Sol de America. Hard to name any of those teams 'impressive'. And if we take those last two wins away from them, Luqueno would have just 5 points and would be sitting right next to Cerro PF. And in all honesty, that is pretty much their real value. I'm not really comfortable betting on Diaz, a small team that enjoys a fantastic run, because these runs are bound to end sooner or later, but this here is more like a bet against Luqueno, one of the poorest teams in the league, and the only reason why they are not in the relegation area, is because there are two worse teams. GL!
Diaz (-0.5 AH) @ 1.93, 3/10
Result: 2-1, WON
Inti Gas - Jose Galvez
Peru Primera Division, Liguilla B
Let's start with the obvious here: Jose Galvez is the poorest team in this group, and one of the weakest teams in the league. They are rock-bottom, on 8th place, 7 points behind San Martin, and they also have a horrendous away record, having lost 13 from the 16 games they've played, with an away goal difference of 14-39. And today's match will be played at high altitude, so there's an extra-factor against them. Inti Gas are solid and stable, as they sit on second place, 8 points behind the leaders. And while their chances of going in the final are very slim, they could very well qualify for a continental cup, so that should keep them motivated. Now, there is also an extra reason that I'm taking a rather high handicap. Jose Galvez were supposed to travel to Ayacucho yesterday, and they did, but due to some meteorological problems, their flight was returned to Lima. This means that they'll travel once again by plane today, two and a half hours before the kick-off time, and as soon as they reach Ayacucho, they will travel to the stadium by bus. Very little time of recovery, and they should also fully feel the effects of the altitude. GL!
Inti Gas (-1.25 AH) @ 1.80, 4/10
Result: 1-0, HALF-LOST
Let's start with the obvious here: Jose Galvez is the poorest team in this group, and one of the weakest teams in the league. They are rock-bottom, on 8th place, 7 points behind San Martin, and they also have a horrendous away record, having lost 13 from the 16 games they've played, with an away goal difference of 14-39. And today's match will be played at high altitude, so there's an extra-factor against them. Inti Gas are solid and stable, as they sit on second place, 8 points behind the leaders. And while their chances of going in the final are very slim, they could very well qualify for a continental cup, so that should keep them motivated. Now, there is also an extra reason that I'm taking a rather high handicap. Jose Galvez were supposed to travel to Ayacucho yesterday, and they did, but due to some meteorological problems, their flight was returned to Lima. This means that they'll travel once again by plane today, two and a half hours before the kick-off time, and as soon as they reach Ayacucho, they will travel to the stadium by bus. Very little time of recovery, and they should also fully feel the effects of the altitude. GL!
Inti Gas (-1.25 AH) @ 1.80, 4/10
Result: 1-0, HALF-LOST
Sep 21, 2013
Fenix - Wanderers
Uruguay Primera Division, Apertura
Interesting duel in Uruguay, between two teams that haven't confirmed yet. Fenix is the only team that hasn't scored a single point yet, losing all 4 of their matches played so far. However, if we are to find excuses for them, we can say that their schedule hasn't been exactly comfortable, as they had to play against contenders Defensor Sporting, and against other teams that so far played beyond expectations and are in the upper half of the standings: El Tanque (2nd place), Sud America (6th place) and Racing (7th place). And in most of those matches, Fenix hasn't been that bad, as they played quite all right, dominated in certain periods, but had a lot of bad luck. On the other hand, Wanderers managed to gather 5 points, but that could be considered rather low, as they played against 4 teams ranked in the bottom half of the table, and they only managed to win once, 1-0 against Liverpool. And even though they have only lost one match, they haven't been at all convincing. Fenix are bound to take some points, sooner rather than later, as they must start converting their chances, and with Wanderers showing some poor results recently, I think they have a very good opportunity to start taking points today. Also, in the last 15 mutual matches, there was just one win for the visitors (Wanderers in 2008), so these games are traditionally bad for the travelers. GL!
Fenix DNB @ 2.02, 4/10
Result: 2-2, VOID
Interesting duel in Uruguay, between two teams that haven't confirmed yet. Fenix is the only team that hasn't scored a single point yet, losing all 4 of their matches played so far. However, if we are to find excuses for them, we can say that their schedule hasn't been exactly comfortable, as they had to play against contenders Defensor Sporting, and against other teams that so far played beyond expectations and are in the upper half of the standings: El Tanque (2nd place), Sud America (6th place) and Racing (7th place). And in most of those matches, Fenix hasn't been that bad, as they played quite all right, dominated in certain periods, but had a lot of bad luck. On the other hand, Wanderers managed to gather 5 points, but that could be considered rather low, as they played against 4 teams ranked in the bottom half of the table, and they only managed to win once, 1-0 against Liverpool. And even though they have only lost one match, they haven't been at all convincing. Fenix are bound to take some points, sooner rather than later, as they must start converting their chances, and with Wanderers showing some poor results recently, I think they have a very good opportunity to start taking points today. Also, in the last 15 mutual matches, there was just one win for the visitors (Wanderers in 2008), so these games are traditionally bad for the travelers. GL!
Fenix DNB @ 2.02, 4/10
Result: 2-2, VOID
Sep 19, 2013
Universitario - Juan Aurich
Peru Primera Division, Liguilla B
Universitario showed a new face this season, and they once again look like the giants that can compete for honors, as they top the Liguilla B with an 8-points advantage over second-placed Inti Gas, an advantage that could be increased to 11 points with a win in this match (or 10 points, if Cajamarca also wins it's game, and takes second place). And this looks like something that can be achieved with ease, as Juan Aurich is going through one of their worst seasons in recent years. They won last weekend against San Martin, to end a run of 5 consecutive matches without a win, but even so, they barely managed to win two games in the last 10 played (the aforementioned game with San Martin and a 6-1 trashing of poor travelers Cienciano). They are safe from relegation for the moment, but only because no one can compete with Union Comercio and Jose Galvez in terms of how poor they are. Universitario will once again depend on the performances of striker Raul Ruidiaz (7 goals in the last 5 games) and midfielder Rainer Torres, who has also been in hot form when it comes to assists. They also carry a morale advantage of Aurich, as they've beaten them in the last 3 consecutive matches, and they look set to continue this run of form. The odds went high a lot, and for no good reason, and I see a lot of value here, as we have odds of over 2.10 in most places, when the opening line was at -1 for a much lower price. GL!
Universitario (-0.75 AH) @ 2.13, 4/10
Result: 0-1, LOST
Universitario showed a new face this season, and they once again look like the giants that can compete for honors, as they top the Liguilla B with an 8-points advantage over second-placed Inti Gas, an advantage that could be increased to 11 points with a win in this match (or 10 points, if Cajamarca also wins it's game, and takes second place). And this looks like something that can be achieved with ease, as Juan Aurich is going through one of their worst seasons in recent years. They won last weekend against San Martin, to end a run of 5 consecutive matches without a win, but even so, they barely managed to win two games in the last 10 played (the aforementioned game with San Martin and a 6-1 trashing of poor travelers Cienciano). They are safe from relegation for the moment, but only because no one can compete with Union Comercio and Jose Galvez in terms of how poor they are. Universitario will once again depend on the performances of striker Raul Ruidiaz (7 goals in the last 5 games) and midfielder Rainer Torres, who has also been in hot form when it comes to assists. They also carry a morale advantage of Aurich, as they've beaten them in the last 3 consecutive matches, and they look set to continue this run of form. The odds went high a lot, and for no good reason, and I see a lot of value here, as we have odds of over 2.10 in most places, when the opening line was at -1 for a much lower price. GL!
Universitario (-0.75 AH) @ 2.13, 4/10
Result: 0-1, LOST
Sep 15, 2013
Racing - Penarol
Uruguay Primera Division, Apertura
Just as usual, Penarol and Nacional, the two Uruguayan giants, have some ridiculous odds, regardless of the situation. And the same thing is happening today... Penarol are struggling to create effective football, and they haven't won a single match played so far this season. They did manage a draw with one of the forerunners, Defensor Sporting, but when you lose 2-3 with a team like Rentistas, or you get trashed by River, 2-4, then there's obviously a lot of work to do. And the coach is trying, making several changes in the team, but I doubt any winning formula has been found. Of course, their bad form won't last forever, and they'll be back in the title race soon, but it won't be an easy task for them today. Racing is quite a solid team, and they usually pose a lot of problems to the big teams. They have two wins this season, but that is irrelevant, because they won against Miramar and Fenix (bottom teams). However, they are the more gelled team, and they are functioning ok, unlike Penarol. And so many changes are bound to have an effect on the team. It remains to be seen if it's a good or bad effect, but however things may turn out, the line is just too good to miss.
Racing (+1 AH) @ 1.85, 3/10
Result: 2-3, VOID
Just as usual, Penarol and Nacional, the two Uruguayan giants, have some ridiculous odds, regardless of the situation. And the same thing is happening today... Penarol are struggling to create effective football, and they haven't won a single match played so far this season. They did manage a draw with one of the forerunners, Defensor Sporting, but when you lose 2-3 with a team like Rentistas, or you get trashed by River, 2-4, then there's obviously a lot of work to do. And the coach is trying, making several changes in the team, but I doubt any winning formula has been found. Of course, their bad form won't last forever, and they'll be back in the title race soon, but it won't be an easy task for them today. Racing is quite a solid team, and they usually pose a lot of problems to the big teams. They have two wins this season, but that is irrelevant, because they won against Miramar and Fenix (bottom teams). However, they are the more gelled team, and they are functioning ok, unlike Penarol. And so many changes are bound to have an effect on the team. It remains to be seen if it's a good or bad effect, but however things may turn out, the line is just too good to miss.
Racing (+1 AH) @ 1.85, 3/10
Result: 2-3, VOID
Sep 11, 2013
Paraguay - Argentina
World Cup 2014, CONMEBOL Qualifiers
With 3 rounds remaining in the South American qualifiers, Argentina are tied on points for the first place with Colombia. However, they have basically secured their qualification to the World Cup, as they are 7 points ahead of the play-off position, and it is impossible for them to drop so many places. So the only thing left is to play the remaining games and to try and win the group. No pressure for them probably, and they definitely have the players to achieve this. For this current squad, the only notable absences are of Javier Mascherano and Gonzalo Higuain. Otherwise, all the stars are there, and their attack is set to shine once again (they have the best offense in the group), with Messi, Aguero and Lavezzi ready for work. On the other side we have a weak Paraguay side, 8 points behind the play-off spot, so they are virtually eliminated from the race. We've talked about them in the previous bet, against Bolivia, and I've mentioned there that they are using quite a young and inexperienced side, without many of their key players (I will copy/paste the list from the previous analisys: "Justo Villar - 101 caps, Alcaraz - 24, Dario Veron - 51, Victor Caceres - 52, Julio dos Santos - 33, Oscar Cardozo - 47 or Haedo Valdez - 66"). They did manage a good trashing of Bolivia, but 'La Verde' was in a similar situation. Can't see past Argentina here, as the quality and the experience should prevail. GL!
Argentina (-0.75 AH) @ 2.04, 4/10
Result: 2-5, WON
With 3 rounds remaining in the South American qualifiers, Argentina are tied on points for the first place with Colombia. However, they have basically secured their qualification to the World Cup, as they are 7 points ahead of the play-off position, and it is impossible for them to drop so many places. So the only thing left is to play the remaining games and to try and win the group. No pressure for them probably, and they definitely have the players to achieve this. For this current squad, the only notable absences are of Javier Mascherano and Gonzalo Higuain. Otherwise, all the stars are there, and their attack is set to shine once again (they have the best offense in the group), with Messi, Aguero and Lavezzi ready for work. On the other side we have a weak Paraguay side, 8 points behind the play-off spot, so they are virtually eliminated from the race. We've talked about them in the previous bet, against Bolivia, and I've mentioned there that they are using quite a young and inexperienced side, without many of their key players (I will copy/paste the list from the previous analisys: "Justo Villar - 101 caps, Alcaraz - 24, Dario Veron - 51, Victor Caceres - 52, Julio dos Santos - 33, Oscar Cardozo - 47 or Haedo Valdez - 66"). They did manage a good trashing of Bolivia, but 'La Verde' was in a similar situation. Can't see past Argentina here, as the quality and the experience should prevail. GL!
Argentina (-0.75 AH) @ 2.04, 4/10
Result: 2-5, WON
Uruguay - Colombia
World Cup 2014, CONMEBOL Qualifiers
This one is far from being a crucial match for any of the teams, but it will definitely impact the standings. Colombia is tied on first place with Argentina, so that would mean that a win today, even though it's improbable, would see them qualify mathematically to the World Cup. Even if they lose, they would still sit in a comfortable position, as - worst case scenario - they would still hold a 4 points-advantage, with 2 rounds remaining. For Uruguay this match is much more important, as Venezuela could reach them if they lose, and would just up the pressure for the last 2 rounds, while if they win, they would pretty much clinch the play-off place, and could even challenge a direct qualification. It's a pity that their home-slumps against Venezuela, Ecuador and Paraguay make them rather unreliable. And that's why I'm going for goals here, because both teams have huge offensive potential. Uruguay scored 15 goals in 6 home matches, 4th best home attack, but keep in mind that they also have one game in hand on the others, so that could very well change tonight. Forlan, Suarez and Cavani need no introduction, as they are one of the most feared offensive trios in the world. The Colombians haven't been so generous with the away goals, in average scoring just one/match, but they also have a lot of potential, with players like: Freddy Guarin, Falcao or Jackson Martinez. 7 out of their last 10 mutual games ended with at least 3 goals, and since Uruguay needs to step it up a notch, we have good chances of seeing an entertaining game again. GL!
over 2.25 goals @ 1.98, 4/10
Result: 2-0, HALF-LOST
This one is far from being a crucial match for any of the teams, but it will definitely impact the standings. Colombia is tied on first place with Argentina, so that would mean that a win today, even though it's improbable, would see them qualify mathematically to the World Cup. Even if they lose, they would still sit in a comfortable position, as - worst case scenario - they would still hold a 4 points-advantage, with 2 rounds remaining. For Uruguay this match is much more important, as Venezuela could reach them if they lose, and would just up the pressure for the last 2 rounds, while if they win, they would pretty much clinch the play-off place, and could even challenge a direct qualification. It's a pity that their home-slumps against Venezuela, Ecuador and Paraguay make them rather unreliable. And that's why I'm going for goals here, because both teams have huge offensive potential. Uruguay scored 15 goals in 6 home matches, 4th best home attack, but keep in mind that they also have one game in hand on the others, so that could very well change tonight. Forlan, Suarez and Cavani need no introduction, as they are one of the most feared offensive trios in the world. The Colombians haven't been so generous with the away goals, in average scoring just one/match, but they also have a lot of potential, with players like: Freddy Guarin, Falcao or Jackson Martinez. 7 out of their last 10 mutual games ended with at least 3 goals, and since Uruguay needs to step it up a notch, we have good chances of seeing an entertaining game again. GL!
over 2.25 goals @ 1.98, 4/10
Result: 2-0, HALF-LOST
Sep 7, 2013
Paraguay - Bolivia
World Cup 2014, CONMEBOL Qualifiers
Both teams have prett much minimal chances of qualifying for the next round, and this can be seen in the squads that have been called-up for the match, as both coaches are trying to bring at the front the new generation of football players. Bolivia are 6 points behind the play-off position, but they also have one extra-match played, so their chances are practically zero. That's why they chose to call a lot of young and inexperienced players. There are just a few players with a nice national record (just 10 players with at least 10 caps), and we can even see 5 players with 0 international caps. Meanwhile, Paraguay are surprisingly last in the standings, 2 points behind Bolivia (but with a game in hand), and 8 points behind the place that gives them a play-off chance. They have also given up on their chances, and if we look at their squad, we can see a lot of big names being absent (Justo Villar - 101 caps, Alcaraz - 24, Dario Veron - 51, Victor Caceres - 52, Julio dos Santos - 33, Oscar Cardozo - 47 or Haedo Valdez - 66). They also have 6 debutantes in their squad. However, overall, they still have the quality advantage here, as they have several players based outside of Paraguay, and most of the other players are based on the front-runners Olimpia, Libertad and Cerro Porteno. This comes in contrast with the Bolivian squad, that only features 5 players based in foreign leagues, so the quality advantage should be clear on the hosts here. GL!
Paraguay (-1.25 AH) @ 1.97, 4/10
Result: 4-0, WON
Both teams have prett much minimal chances of qualifying for the next round, and this can be seen in the squads that have been called-up for the match, as both coaches are trying to bring at the front the new generation of football players. Bolivia are 6 points behind the play-off position, but they also have one extra-match played, so their chances are practically zero. That's why they chose to call a lot of young and inexperienced players. There are just a few players with a nice national record (just 10 players with at least 10 caps), and we can even see 5 players with 0 international caps. Meanwhile, Paraguay are surprisingly last in the standings, 2 points behind Bolivia (but with a game in hand), and 8 points behind the place that gives them a play-off chance. They have also given up on their chances, and if we look at their squad, we can see a lot of big names being absent (Justo Villar - 101 caps, Alcaraz - 24, Dario Veron - 51, Victor Caceres - 52, Julio dos Santos - 33, Oscar Cardozo - 47 or Haedo Valdez - 66). They also have 6 debutantes in their squad. However, overall, they still have the quality advantage here, as they have several players based outside of Paraguay, and most of the other players are based on the front-runners Olimpia, Libertad and Cerro Porteno. This comes in contrast with the Bolivian squad, that only features 5 players based in foreign leagues, so the quality advantage should be clear on the hosts here. GL!
Paraguay (-1.25 AH) @ 1.97, 4/10
Result: 4-0, WON
Colombia - Ecuador
World Cup 2014, CONMEBOL Qualifiers
Despite the fact that there are 4 rounds remaining, Colombia and Ecuador are all but qualified, as they are 7 and 5 points above 6th place Venezuela, and both have a game in hand. Of course, surprises are bound to happen, but I doubt any of the bottom half teams have enough strength to recover such a deficit. With a win here, Colombia could actually tie Argentina on points for the first spot, giving them a good shot at winning the entire group. And they certainly have what it takes, as they are in great form, especially when playing on their home ground. After the initial hick-ups with Venezuela (1-1) and Argentina (1-2), the Colombians went on to have 4 straight wins at home, covering the handicap in all of them (including a 4-0 trashing of Uruguay). Full squad for them, without any important absences, so everything is set for another win, against one of the poorest travelers on the continent. Yes, despite their impressive results, Ecuador haven't managed to win a single game outside their country, and after 5 games on the road, they only have 2 points, one more than the bottom Peru, Bolivia and Paraguay. Don't really see how that could change, as Colombia have proved to be one of the toughest opponents in this qualifiers, and even though Ecuador is at full strength, they should be falling short in yet another trip. GL!
Colombia (-1 AH) @ 1.86, 4/10
Result: 1-0, VOID
Despite the fact that there are 4 rounds remaining, Colombia and Ecuador are all but qualified, as they are 7 and 5 points above 6th place Venezuela, and both have a game in hand. Of course, surprises are bound to happen, but I doubt any of the bottom half teams have enough strength to recover such a deficit. With a win here, Colombia could actually tie Argentina on points for the first spot, giving them a good shot at winning the entire group. And they certainly have what it takes, as they are in great form, especially when playing on their home ground. After the initial hick-ups with Venezuela (1-1) and Argentina (1-2), the Colombians went on to have 4 straight wins at home, covering the handicap in all of them (including a 4-0 trashing of Uruguay). Full squad for them, without any important absences, so everything is set for another win, against one of the poorest travelers on the continent. Yes, despite their impressive results, Ecuador haven't managed to win a single game outside their country, and after 5 games on the road, they only have 2 points, one more than the bottom Peru, Bolivia and Paraguay. Don't really see how that could change, as Colombia have proved to be one of the toughest opponents in this qualifiers, and even though Ecuador is at full strength, they should be falling short in yet another trip. GL!
Colombia (-1 AH) @ 1.86, 4/10
Result: 1-0, VOID
Sep 2, 2013
Real Garcilaso - Alianza Lima
Peru Primera Division, Liguilla A
There is definitely some value here, as the odds are suggesting that Garcilaso is playing against one of the bottom teams. But they're not, and even though Alianza is a long way behind the leaders (they are 4th in the liguilla, 11 points behind), they are still one of the big teams, and one of the in-form teams. In recent matches, their main strength came from their home matches, as they were constantly beaten on the road by the likes of Inti Gas, Cienciano or San Martin. And the fact that this match will be played at altitude shouldn't make things any easier for them. However, I expect some extra-motivation today from the players, and another thing that keeps me hoping is the previous match between the two teams, back in June, when Alianza held for a 0-0 draw. Garcilaso have an 8-points advantage, so they should be quite safe for the next couple of weeks, but we do have to note a slight glimpse in their play (last week they dug hard to beat San Martin by the minimum). They are still undefeated at home, and it will be very hard for anybody to take that away from them, but Alianza looks like a team that can withstand them, and should be able to snatch a draw. The line is way too big, in my opinion, so my bet goes on Alianza. GL!
Alianza (+1 AH) @ 2.06, 3/10
Result: 2-2, WON
There is definitely some value here, as the odds are suggesting that Garcilaso is playing against one of the bottom teams. But they're not, and even though Alianza is a long way behind the leaders (they are 4th in the liguilla, 11 points behind), they are still one of the big teams, and one of the in-form teams. In recent matches, their main strength came from their home matches, as they were constantly beaten on the road by the likes of Inti Gas, Cienciano or San Martin. And the fact that this match will be played at altitude shouldn't make things any easier for them. However, I expect some extra-motivation today from the players, and another thing that keeps me hoping is the previous match between the two teams, back in June, when Alianza held for a 0-0 draw. Garcilaso have an 8-points advantage, so they should be quite safe for the next couple of weeks, but we do have to note a slight glimpse in their play (last week they dug hard to beat San Martin by the minimum). They are still undefeated at home, and it will be very hard for anybody to take that away from them, but Alianza looks like a team that can withstand them, and should be able to snatch a draw. The line is way too big, in my opinion, so my bet goes on Alianza. GL!
Alianza (+1 AH) @ 2.06, 3/10
Result: 2-2, WON
Sep 1, 2013
Universitario - Cienciano
Peru Primera Division, Liguilla B
The Liguillas are set and scheduled to start, and Universitario already announced themselves as main contenders for the Liguilla B and for the final. Their group is relatively easy, without the rest of the main contenders (Garcilaso, Cristal and Alianza), and they also have a 6-points advantage over second placed Cajamarca, so normally they shouldn't sweat for the final and should just power through the rest of their matches. First stop would be with Cienciano, a team generally known for their home-ground prowess, as their performances on the road leave much to be desired. They lost more than half of their away games (8 out of 15), and have a negative goal-scoring record of 13-29. Their last matches also leave a lot to be desired, as they drew with Pacifico and lost at Leon, Juan Aurich and San Martin, the only white point being the draw they snatched at Garcilaso. Meanwhile, Universtario are really on fire, as they have 4 straight victories, including a 5-1 trashing of Jose Galvez and a 3-0 beat-down with title hopefuls Cristal. They will be missing their top scorer today, Raul Ruidiaz (13 goals in 28 games), but he should be well covered by Diego Gustavino, who scored 7 goals in 18 matches that he started as a regular (plus 8 more as a substitute). Cienciano shouldn't pose too many problems, they are quite safe from relegation, so I expect Universitario to keep up their good run of form. GL!
Universitario (-1 AH) @ 1.83, 3/10
Result: 1-1, LOST
The Liguillas are set and scheduled to start, and Universitario already announced themselves as main contenders for the Liguilla B and for the final. Their group is relatively easy, without the rest of the main contenders (Garcilaso, Cristal and Alianza), and they also have a 6-points advantage over second placed Cajamarca, so normally they shouldn't sweat for the final and should just power through the rest of their matches. First stop would be with Cienciano, a team generally known for their home-ground prowess, as their performances on the road leave much to be desired. They lost more than half of their away games (8 out of 15), and have a negative goal-scoring record of 13-29. Their last matches also leave a lot to be desired, as they drew with Pacifico and lost at Leon, Juan Aurich and San Martin, the only white point being the draw they snatched at Garcilaso. Meanwhile, Universtario are really on fire, as they have 4 straight victories, including a 5-1 trashing of Jose Galvez and a 3-0 beat-down with title hopefuls Cristal. They will be missing their top scorer today, Raul Ruidiaz (13 goals in 28 games), but he should be well covered by Diego Gustavino, who scored 7 goals in 18 matches that he started as a regular (plus 8 more as a substitute). Cienciano shouldn't pose too many problems, they are quite safe from relegation, so I expect Universitario to keep up their good run of form. GL!
Universitario (-1 AH) @ 1.83, 3/10
Result: 1-1, LOST
Aug 23, 2013
Cruz Azul - Herediano
CONCACAF Champions League, Group Stage
Cruz Azul will finally start their Champions League campaign, after having the first match-day off, due to the new format of the competition, where groups are consisting of only 3 teams. The Mexican team are usually challengers in this competition, as during the last 5 years they have played 2 finals and one additional semifinal. There is no word on the line-up that will be used, but if we look at their history, it is to be expected for Cruz Azul to use a few reserve players, as most Mexican teams do when they are playing at home. Their group is a fairly easy one, with opposition from Costa Rica and Haiti, but they do need to get at least 4 points against Herediano (they shouldn't break a sweat against the Haitians). So I'm expecting a decent squad today, and the home win shouldn't be put under question. Herediano did well in their debut, beating Valencia by 6-1, but this will be totally different for them. They never won on Mexican grounds, regardless of the opposition and the squad used, and I really doubt they'll manage that today. The line is lower than I expected, so I think it's worth to go with the Mexicans here. GL!
Cruz Azul (-1.5 AH) @ 1.83, 3/10
Result: 3-0, WON
Cruz Azul will finally start their Champions League campaign, after having the first match-day off, due to the new format of the competition, where groups are consisting of only 3 teams. The Mexican team are usually challengers in this competition, as during the last 5 years they have played 2 finals and one additional semifinal. There is no word on the line-up that will be used, but if we look at their history, it is to be expected for Cruz Azul to use a few reserve players, as most Mexican teams do when they are playing at home. Their group is a fairly easy one, with opposition from Costa Rica and Haiti, but they do need to get at least 4 points against Herediano (they shouldn't break a sweat against the Haitians). So I'm expecting a decent squad today, and the home win shouldn't be put under question. Herediano did well in their debut, beating Valencia by 6-1, but this will be totally different for them. They never won on Mexican grounds, regardless of the opposition and the squad used, and I really doubt they'll manage that today. The line is lower than I expected, so I think it's worth to go with the Mexicans here. GL!
Cruz Azul (-1.5 AH) @ 1.83, 3/10
Result: 3-0, WON
Aug 21, 2013
Victoria - Tijuana
CONCACAF Champions League, Group Stage
The CONCACAF Champions League is probably one of the most disproportionate tournaments in the world, so we can rarely find any value here, but this bet looks good enough. Club Tijuana started their campaign with a draw, which is always a good point if taken away from home. However, for a Mexican club, anything besides wins in this competition can be considered a fail, that's why I think they should be going for a win here. Another draw may sound good, especially since Tijuana will play their remaining matches at home, but they may end up sweating towards the end. Honduras is a tough place to go and win, but I'm not expecting any miracles from debutant Victoria. Last year, the country's best clubs, Olimpia and Marathon, failed to win at home against MLS opposition, and as we all know, Mexican clubs are better than the American ones. The big unknown here is usually the squad that the big clubs choose to field, but from the looks of it, Tijuana will go with a strong squad. The expected line-up for the Mexicans provides us pretty much all the regulars, with the exception of striker Benedetto (3/3 so far in the Apertura). The defensive and midfield lines are intact, while in the offensive line we still have some quality, with Fidel Martinez (3/2) and Joe Corona (3/0) - both are actually midfielders, but they're playing quite often in advanced positions. The quality advantage is obviously on the Mexican side, and the odds provided look good enough to risk a bet here. GL!
Tijuana (-0.5 AH) @ 2.08, 3/10
Result: 2-3, WON
The CONCACAF Champions League is probably one of the most disproportionate tournaments in the world, so we can rarely find any value here, but this bet looks good enough. Club Tijuana started their campaign with a draw, which is always a good point if taken away from home. However, for a Mexican club, anything besides wins in this competition can be considered a fail, that's why I think they should be going for a win here. Another draw may sound good, especially since Tijuana will play their remaining matches at home, but they may end up sweating towards the end. Honduras is a tough place to go and win, but I'm not expecting any miracles from debutant Victoria. Last year, the country's best clubs, Olimpia and Marathon, failed to win at home against MLS opposition, and as we all know, Mexican clubs are better than the American ones. The big unknown here is usually the squad that the big clubs choose to field, but from the looks of it, Tijuana will go with a strong squad. The expected line-up for the Mexicans provides us pretty much all the regulars, with the exception of striker Benedetto (3/3 so far in the Apertura). The defensive and midfield lines are intact, while in the offensive line we still have some quality, with Fidel Martinez (3/2) and Joe Corona (3/0) - both are actually midfielders, but they're playing quite often in advanced positions. The quality advantage is obviously on the Mexican side, and the odds provided look good enough to risk a bet here. GL!
Tijuana (-0.5 AH) @ 2.08, 3/10
Result: 2-3, WON
Aug 20, 2013
General Diaz - Cerro Porteno
Paraguay Primera Division, Clausura
Cerro Porteno may be out of Copa Sudamericana, but their schedule isn't at all more relaxed these days. They will have to face General Diaz today, and they have the SuperClasico against Olimpia during the weekend. But we have some good news, as coach Arce said he will use the best he has, in order to take the three points and to continue at the top of the standings. Diaz is a bubble that it's about to burst, and even though they managed a highly unlikely win on Friday, trashing Guarani by 3-0 on their own ground, I won't let myself get carried away, and I just can't see how their form will last. They aren't one of the better teams in the league, and even though they are enjoying a good run lately (besides the win against Guarani, they also drew with Nacional and Libertad), I'm confident it will end sooner, rather than later. Since Cerro will be using their main squad here, they should have the first chance in this match, and if we also think about the fact that they've won both matches against Diaz in the Apertura, I think we should see a repeat of those results. GL!
Cerro (-0.25 AH) @ 1.93, 3/10
Result: 1-1, HALF-LOST
Cerro Porteno may be out of Copa Sudamericana, but their schedule isn't at all more relaxed these days. They will have to face General Diaz today, and they have the SuperClasico against Olimpia during the weekend. But we have some good news, as coach Arce said he will use the best he has, in order to take the three points and to continue at the top of the standings. Diaz is a bubble that it's about to burst, and even though they managed a highly unlikely win on Friday, trashing Guarani by 3-0 on their own ground, I won't let myself get carried away, and I just can't see how their form will last. They aren't one of the better teams in the league, and even though they are enjoying a good run lately (besides the win against Guarani, they also drew with Nacional and Libertad), I'm confident it will end sooner, rather than later. Since Cerro will be using their main squad here, they should have the first chance in this match, and if we also think about the fact that they've won both matches against Diaz in the Apertura, I think we should see a repeat of those results. GL!
Cerro (-0.25 AH) @ 1.93, 3/10
Result: 1-1, HALF-LOST
Aug 18, 2013
Cerro Porteno - Sol de America
Paraguay Primera Division, Clausura
Once Cerro Porteno signed their elimination from Copa Sudamericana, they can now fully focus on the local league, especially since a win today could see them equal on points with the leaders. Moreover, the reigning champions - Nacional, and the current leaders - Libertad, are expected to struggle with fixture congestion, since both are still engaged with the continental competition, so this could provide Cerro some breathing space. And their coach is well aware of this, and tonight he will use the best players that he has at his disposal, including those that have played on Wednesday with the national team, Oscar Romero and Fernandez. Sol de America are doing a very good campaign so far, sitting in the table just one point behind Cerro, but they've had a very favorable fixture draw. They come after two high-profile wins, 2-1 away at Nacional, and 2-0 at home with Guarani, but both teams were using their second-string teams. Other than that, they've lost at home in the first round against lowly Capiata, so that should paint a picture of their true colors. I expect Cerro to bring them down to earth, after those two high-profile wins, and since they will be fielding a full squad, this shouldn't go past a home win. GL!
Cerro (-0.75 AH) @ 1.80, 3/10
Result: 2-0, WON
Once Cerro Porteno signed their elimination from Copa Sudamericana, they can now fully focus on the local league, especially since a win today could see them equal on points with the leaders. Moreover, the reigning champions - Nacional, and the current leaders - Libertad, are expected to struggle with fixture congestion, since both are still engaged with the continental competition, so this could provide Cerro some breathing space. And their coach is well aware of this, and tonight he will use the best players that he has at his disposal, including those that have played on Wednesday with the national team, Oscar Romero and Fernandez. Sol de America are doing a very good campaign so far, sitting in the table just one point behind Cerro, but they've had a very favorable fixture draw. They come after two high-profile wins, 2-1 away at Nacional, and 2-0 at home with Guarani, but both teams were using their second-string teams. Other than that, they've lost at home in the first round against lowly Capiata, so that should paint a picture of their true colors. I expect Cerro to bring them down to earth, after those two high-profile wins, and since they will be fielding a full squad, this shouldn't go past a home win. GL!
Cerro (-0.75 AH) @ 1.80, 3/10
Result: 2-0, WON
Aug 17, 2013
Deportivo Cuenca - Deportivo Quito
Ecuador Serie A, Segunda Etapa
Deportivo Cuenca will have a lot of squad problems for this match, paying the price for their indiscipline last round. They will have to face Deportivo Quito, one of the high-flying and most in-form teams in the league (currently on 2nd place), without 3 players and also without their head coach, all of them being sent off in their last match, the 1-2 defeat at Independiente. So, they will be without defenders Jerry Leon (8/1) and Moreira (20/0), and without forward Estupinan (23/9). Not many, and just 2 key players, but the coach will be forced to make some deep changes, especially in defense. And even without these absences, in their last matches, Cuenca was only able to snatch points against the mid-table or lower teams. Meanwhile, Deportivo Quito have been in great for at this stage, as they have 5 victories in 7 games, including victories against Emelec and U Catolica (currently sitting at 1st and 3rd place, respectively), and also an away win at Independiente (5th place). They will be pretty much with their best squad, and even though they are not a very spectacular team, they can gloat with a very stable and solid defense, conceding just 5 goals in this competition, and going with clean sheets for the last 5 matches. GL!
Quito (-0.25 AH) @ 2.04, 3/10
Result: 6-1, LOST
Deportivo Cuenca will have a lot of squad problems for this match, paying the price for their indiscipline last round. They will have to face Deportivo Quito, one of the high-flying and most in-form teams in the league (currently on 2nd place), without 3 players and also without their head coach, all of them being sent off in their last match, the 1-2 defeat at Independiente. So, they will be without defenders Jerry Leon (8/1) and Moreira (20/0), and without forward Estupinan (23/9). Not many, and just 2 key players, but the coach will be forced to make some deep changes, especially in defense. And even without these absences, in their last matches, Cuenca was only able to snatch points against the mid-table or lower teams. Meanwhile, Deportivo Quito have been in great for at this stage, as they have 5 victories in 7 games, including victories against Emelec and U Catolica (currently sitting at 1st and 3rd place, respectively), and also an away win at Independiente (5th place). They will be pretty much with their best squad, and even though they are not a very spectacular team, they can gloat with a very stable and solid defense, conceding just 5 goals in this competition, and going with clean sheets for the last 5 matches. GL!
Quito (-0.25 AH) @ 2.04, 3/10
Result: 6-1, LOST
Guarani - General Diaz
Paraguay Primera Division, Clausura
Guarani found it hard recently in the league, mainly due to their matches in Copa Sudamericana, which forced them to apply some squad rotations in the league. That's why they are still without a win in this tournament, after 3 rounds, and are sharing the last place in the standings with Nacional and Rubio Nu. It's quite an unacceptable situation for them, and the coach thinks the same. That is why it is expected that they will be fielding their best available squad tonight, without resting anyone in expectancy of their Libertadores match from next week, against Atletico Nacional. And if that happens, I give them the first option to take a win tonight, and it should be a rather easy win. General Diaz are nothing special, and despite being undefeated in Clausura, they have only recorded draws so far. If you look at the names, it may appear as quite a performance, but Libertad are reconstructing their team, Capiata is a very poor team, while Nacional was resting almost their entire squad. It should be a different affair now, if Guarani won't hold anything back, and even though Diaz won the first match played this year, I just don't see them making a repeat of that performance. GL!
Guarani (-0.5 AH) @ 2.00, 3/10
Result: 0-3, LOST
Guarani found it hard recently in the league, mainly due to their matches in Copa Sudamericana, which forced them to apply some squad rotations in the league. That's why they are still without a win in this tournament, after 3 rounds, and are sharing the last place in the standings with Nacional and Rubio Nu. It's quite an unacceptable situation for them, and the coach thinks the same. That is why it is expected that they will be fielding their best available squad tonight, without resting anyone in expectancy of their Libertadores match from next week, against Atletico Nacional. And if that happens, I give them the first option to take a win tonight, and it should be a rather easy win. General Diaz are nothing special, and despite being undefeated in Clausura, they have only recorded draws so far. If you look at the names, it may appear as quite a performance, but Libertad are reconstructing their team, Capiata is a very poor team, while Nacional was resting almost their entire squad. It should be a different affair now, if Guarani won't hold anything back, and even though Diaz won the first match played this year, I just don't see them making a repeat of that performance. GL!
Guarani (-0.5 AH) @ 2.00, 3/10
Result: 0-3, LOST
Aug 16, 2013
U Catolica - Emelec
Ecuador Serie A, Segunda Etapa
Huge drop of odds and change of lines here, and to be honest, I can't find a good enough reason to justify these changes. It is true that Emelec will be missing about 3 key players (striker Marlon de Jesus - 24/14 - is injured, while midfielders Gaibor - 18/3 - and Valencia - 15/2 - are unavailable, due to suspension or fatigue after the international day) but that shouldn't be enough to make the lines change so much. Emelec missed a few players in the last round as well, but they still managed to win the game, even though their opponent was weaker than today's one. The most important absence will be the one of strikers' Marlon de Jesus, but from what I've seen, he should be well covered by the new forward, Denis Stracqualursi, who scored 3 goals in his first 2 games for the club. Universidad Catolica has a good team, as they are flying high and are sitting on 3rd place, but we've seen their limitations in the last couple of rounds, as they were beaten by Independiente at home, and away at Deportivo Quito. And I expect Emelec to have the first chance here as well, despite their absences, as they seem to be at a totally different level when they play their game. Keep in mind, the lines/odds changed from -0.25 at 1.94 (opening odds) to +0.25 at much better odds, so from my point of view, we have a big value on this bet. GL!
Emelec (+0.25 AH) @ 2.10, 4/10
Result: 2-1, LOST
Huge drop of odds and change of lines here, and to be honest, I can't find a good enough reason to justify these changes. It is true that Emelec will be missing about 3 key players (striker Marlon de Jesus - 24/14 - is injured, while midfielders Gaibor - 18/3 - and Valencia - 15/2 - are unavailable, due to suspension or fatigue after the international day) but that shouldn't be enough to make the lines change so much. Emelec missed a few players in the last round as well, but they still managed to win the game, even though their opponent was weaker than today's one. The most important absence will be the one of strikers' Marlon de Jesus, but from what I've seen, he should be well covered by the new forward, Denis Stracqualursi, who scored 3 goals in his first 2 games for the club. Universidad Catolica has a good team, as they are flying high and are sitting on 3rd place, but we've seen their limitations in the last couple of rounds, as they were beaten by Independiente at home, and away at Deportivo Quito. And I expect Emelec to have the first chance here as well, despite their absences, as they seem to be at a totally different level when they play their game. Keep in mind, the lines/odds changed from -0.25 at 1.94 (opening odds) to +0.25 at much better odds, so from my point of view, we have a big value on this bet. GL!
Emelec (+0.25 AH) @ 2.10, 4/10
Result: 2-1, LOST
Aug 14, 2013
South Korea - Peru
International Friendly Match
Early bet here, because the odds already dropped quite a lot, and will probably keep doing so. This is only a friendly game, but from the looks of it, the Peruvian team, headed by coach Markarian, will take it quite seriously. We can tell this from the list of 'foreign' players that have been called-up, as we can see some big names, like Paolo Guerrero, Jefferson Farfan, Claudio Pizarro, Paolo Hurtado, Edson Flores and Yordy Reina. It's far too soon to speculate about the starting line-up, but I doubt that the coach has called so many stars to South Korea only to leave them on the bench. Meanwhile, the hosts have only called-up Asian-based players (acting in the South Korean or Japan leagues), and except goalkeeper Jung Sung-Ryong (53 caps) and midfielder Lee Keun-Ho (51 caps), the squad is very inexperienced, and are averaging on the age level at 24 years old. They will be without any of their European stars, and the coach is under a lot of criticism, mainly due to their poor performance in their previous local tournament. The quality should be on the Peruvian side, so it's definitely worth taking this bet, despite this being just a meaningless friendly match. GL!
Peru (+0.5 AH) @ 1.89, 4/10
Result: 0-0, WON
Early bet here, because the odds already dropped quite a lot, and will probably keep doing so. This is only a friendly game, but from the looks of it, the Peruvian team, headed by coach Markarian, will take it quite seriously. We can tell this from the list of 'foreign' players that have been called-up, as we can see some big names, like Paolo Guerrero, Jefferson Farfan, Claudio Pizarro, Paolo Hurtado, Edson Flores and Yordy Reina. It's far too soon to speculate about the starting line-up, but I doubt that the coach has called so many stars to South Korea only to leave them on the bench. Meanwhile, the hosts have only called-up Asian-based players (acting in the South Korean or Japan leagues), and except goalkeeper Jung Sung-Ryong (53 caps) and midfielder Lee Keun-Ho (51 caps), the squad is very inexperienced, and are averaging on the age level at 24 years old. They will be without any of their European stars, and the coach is under a lot of criticism, mainly due to their poor performance in their previous local tournament. The quality should be on the Peruvian side, so it's definitely worth taking this bet, despite this being just a meaningless friendly match. GL!
Peru (+0.5 AH) @ 1.89, 4/10
Result: 0-0, WON
Aug 11, 2013
General Diaz - Nacional
Paraguay Primera Division, Clausura
Nacional of Asuncion achieved a great feat this week, as they qualified for the second round of Copa Sudamericana, and they've done so in great fashion, by snatching a point in the altitude of Bolivia, a place where only a few low-land teams come out alive from. Now they will have to return to their local league, and obviously, some players may not be at their best when it comes to fitness. So, a few players won't even be taken into account for this match, and the biggest loss will be forward Julian Benitez, who scored 13 goals in 17 matches. In the game's squad, there are still several regulars, but I doubt we will see much action from them, and mostly an alternative squad is expected, and I'm also not expecting the best from the players that also played a very tiring match in Bolivia. And if we are to estimate the value of Nacional's alternative squad, we can note their defeat last week, at home, against Sol de America. General Diaz are not a good team, far from that, but they can pull off some nice results from time to time, like 2 consecutive home draws with Libertad last month. They are well motivated, so it will be just a case of what team Nacional will field, and how the players will cope. But in such a case, I think it would be worthwhile trying a bet on the hosts. GL!
Diaz (+0.5 AH) @ 1.91, 3/10
Result: 0-0, WON
Nacional of Asuncion achieved a great feat this week, as they qualified for the second round of Copa Sudamericana, and they've done so in great fashion, by snatching a point in the altitude of Bolivia, a place where only a few low-land teams come out alive from. Now they will have to return to their local league, and obviously, some players may not be at their best when it comes to fitness. So, a few players won't even be taken into account for this match, and the biggest loss will be forward Julian Benitez, who scored 13 goals in 17 matches. In the game's squad, there are still several regulars, but I doubt we will see much action from them, and mostly an alternative squad is expected, and I'm also not expecting the best from the players that also played a very tiring match in Bolivia. And if we are to estimate the value of Nacional's alternative squad, we can note their defeat last week, at home, against Sol de America. General Diaz are not a good team, far from that, but they can pull off some nice results from time to time, like 2 consecutive home draws with Libertad last month. They are well motivated, so it will be just a case of what team Nacional will field, and how the players will cope. But in such a case, I think it would be worthwhile trying a bet on the hosts. GL!
Diaz (+0.5 AH) @ 1.91, 3/10
Result: 0-0, WON
Deportivo Quito - Universidad Catolica
Ecuador Serie A, Segunda Etapa
Two of the top performers in the Ecuadorian league will face each other today, as league leaders Universidad Catolica will be looking to secure their top spot even further. They are in red hot form in this stage, as they've had 5 consecutive wins which ended abruptly last week, with a 2-3 home defeat against Independiente. They have the best offense so far, with 14 goals scored, and this proves how effective their offensive play is. Deportivo Quito are right behind them, 2 points adrift, and they are also in very good form, winning 4 of their 6 matches played, and being undefeated in their last 5 games. Their number of goals scored is not so impressive, with just 6 goals, but they also like to play offensive football. Also, within the ranks of Deportivo Quito and U Catolica we have the top 2 best scorers of the league, with Nieto having 22 goals scored so far, and with Laurito having 17 for Catolica. One more thing worth mentioning is that both of their mutual matches from this season have ended with 2-2 draws, so this is very encouraging for this bet. GL!
over 2.5 goals @ 1.97, 3/10
Result: 2-0, LOST
Two of the top performers in the Ecuadorian league will face each other today, as league leaders Universidad Catolica will be looking to secure their top spot even further. They are in red hot form in this stage, as they've had 5 consecutive wins which ended abruptly last week, with a 2-3 home defeat against Independiente. They have the best offense so far, with 14 goals scored, and this proves how effective their offensive play is. Deportivo Quito are right behind them, 2 points adrift, and they are also in very good form, winning 4 of their 6 matches played, and being undefeated in their last 5 games. Their number of goals scored is not so impressive, with just 6 goals, but they also like to play offensive football. Also, within the ranks of Deportivo Quito and U Catolica we have the top 2 best scorers of the league, with Nieto having 22 goals scored so far, and with Laurito having 17 for Catolica. One more thing worth mentioning is that both of their mutual matches from this season have ended with 2-2 draws, so this is very encouraging for this bet. GL!
over 2.5 goals @ 1.97, 3/10
Result: 2-0, LOST
Aug 3, 2013
Sport Huancayo - UTC
Peru Primera Division, Descentralizado
Sport Huancayo have a very short squad, so for as long as they'll be playing both in the local league and in Copa Sudamericana, they will have to sacrifice some games. And from what it looks like, the sacrificed ones will be in the local league. Following their home defeat against Emelec, earlier this week in Copa Sudamericana, they will have to dig deep in the return game to overturn the results. And even if that task will be almost impossible, they are giving it their all, and are saving pretty much all their main players during today's game. No official line-up has been released so far, but it is quite certain that they will be using 8 youngsters in the starting team. So, a completely different team, without too much experience or class. Overall, UTC look like a weaker team than a full-force Huancayo, even though they are right behind them in the table, just one point behind, but under these circumstance, they should be winning this match without any problems. They are also used to play at high altitude, so Huancayo will be without any advantages. GL!
UTC (+0.5 AH) @ 1.68, 4/10
Result: 0-2, WON
Sport Huancayo have a very short squad, so for as long as they'll be playing both in the local league and in Copa Sudamericana, they will have to sacrifice some games. And from what it looks like, the sacrificed ones will be in the local league. Following their home defeat against Emelec, earlier this week in Copa Sudamericana, they will have to dig deep in the return game to overturn the results. And even if that task will be almost impossible, they are giving it their all, and are saving pretty much all their main players during today's game. No official line-up has been released so far, but it is quite certain that they will be using 8 youngsters in the starting team. So, a completely different team, without too much experience or class. Overall, UTC look like a weaker team than a full-force Huancayo, even though they are right behind them in the table, just one point behind, but under these circumstance, they should be winning this match without any problems. They are also used to play at high altitude, so Huancayo will be without any advantages. GL!
UTC (+0.5 AH) @ 1.68, 4/10
Result: 0-2, WON
Aug 1, 2013
Deportivo Pasto - FBC Melgar
Copa Sudamericana 2013, First Round
We may have some poor Peruvian teams in this competition this year, but in my opinion, Melgar are by far the poorest. Looking at their squad, they don't have any 'big' players (maybe Meza Cuadra can be the exception), and I can't say they are a very solid squad either. And if we look at their league results this year, the whole picture gets even grimmer. They sit on 13th place, are without a win in their last 9 games, and they have also failed to win a single match that they've played away from home. Meanwhile, Pasto have managed to reach the semi-final of their league earlier this year, and have started the new tournament in good fashion, with a solid home win. They've kept pretty much the same squad as last season, so we can expect them to keep up their solid play. Also, Colombian teams are traditionally better than their Peruvian counterparts, and even much so if the Peruvian team is in Melgar's situation. If Pasto would have had the altitude advantage here, I would have taken this bet with high-stakes, but they don't (Melgar plays at a similar altitude), so we'll just settle for a medium stakes bet. GL!
Pasto (-1 AH) @ 1.83, 5/10
Result: 3-0, WON
We may have some poor Peruvian teams in this competition this year, but in my opinion, Melgar are by far the poorest. Looking at their squad, they don't have any 'big' players (maybe Meza Cuadra can be the exception), and I can't say they are a very solid squad either. And if we look at their league results this year, the whole picture gets even grimmer. They sit on 13th place, are without a win in their last 9 games, and they have also failed to win a single match that they've played away from home. Meanwhile, Pasto have managed to reach the semi-final of their league earlier this year, and have started the new tournament in good fashion, with a solid home win. They've kept pretty much the same squad as last season, so we can expect them to keep up their solid play. Also, Colombian teams are traditionally better than their Peruvian counterparts, and even much so if the Peruvian team is in Melgar's situation. If Pasto would have had the altitude advantage here, I would have taken this bet with high-stakes, but they don't (Melgar plays at a similar altitude), so we'll just settle for a medium stakes bet. GL!
Pasto (-1 AH) @ 1.83, 5/10
Result: 3-0, WON
El Tanque Sisley - Colo Colo
Copa Sudamericana 2013, First Round
Not the best start in this year's Copa Sudamericana, betting-wise, so let's try to make things better-looking. We'll start in Uruguay, where El Tanque Sisley will be making their continental debut against Colo Colo of Chile. El Tanque made a name for themselves as being a tough team to break, and they also keep it as close as possible, regardless of the opposition. However, the performances that saw them qualify to Sudamericana have long been forgotten, as this year they've made a mediocre campaign, and they ended the season with 10 consecutive games without a win. They didn't sign any important players, and they also had to cut their preparations short, as the start of Sudamericana was moved 2 weeks earlier. They are a team without any international experience, and I expect them to struggle against better teams, like Colo Colo. The Chileans, who just started the domestic league, were the fools of the first round, as they were trashed 0-4 by Audax, despite having an extra man for about 50 minutes (during which the score went from 0-0 to 0-2). I'm expecting this result to give them a 'kick' and some extra-motivation. They have the quality, no doubt about it, so it's just a matter of recovering after the previous results. This line gives us an insurance in case of a draw, so I'll gladly take it. GL!
Colo Colo DNB @ 1.82, 4/10
Result: 0-1, WON
Not the best start in this year's Copa Sudamericana, betting-wise, so let's try to make things better-looking. We'll start in Uruguay, where El Tanque Sisley will be making their continental debut against Colo Colo of Chile. El Tanque made a name for themselves as being a tough team to break, and they also keep it as close as possible, regardless of the opposition. However, the performances that saw them qualify to Sudamericana have long been forgotten, as this year they've made a mediocre campaign, and they ended the season with 10 consecutive games without a win. They didn't sign any important players, and they also had to cut their preparations short, as the start of Sudamericana was moved 2 weeks earlier. They are a team without any international experience, and I expect them to struggle against better teams, like Colo Colo. The Chileans, who just started the domestic league, were the fools of the first round, as they were trashed 0-4 by Audax, despite having an extra man for about 50 minutes (during which the score went from 0-0 to 0-2). I'm expecting this result to give them a 'kick' and some extra-motivation. They have the quality, no doubt about it, so it's just a matter of recovering after the previous results. This line gives us an insurance in case of a draw, so I'll gladly take it. GL!
Colo Colo DNB @ 1.82, 4/10
Result: 0-1, WON
Jul 31, 2013
Sport Huancayo - Emelec
Copa Sudamericana 2013, First Round
Two high flying teams will be facing off tonight in Peru, as Sport Huancayo will be hosting Emelec. High-flying both in terms of results and style of play. Huancayo are on 5th place, with a very solid home record, where they also bolster the 3rd best attack of the league, with 22 goals scored in 13 matches. However, their defensive line is far from stable, as they also have the 3rd worst defense when it come to home games (as well as the 3rd worst defense overall). They have a nice advantage in most of their local games, as the city of Huancayo is situated at over 3000 meters of altitude, but Emelec shouldn't be too affected by this factor, being a team that plays more than half of their local league games in Quito. They've started the first tournament of the season by blitzing through their opponents, and despite a glimpse in form later on, they've held on and managed to qualify for the final. They've started in the same fashion the second round, with 4 consecutive wins (before being defeated by Deportivo Quito), and their style of play is still encouraging. The line is low, and both teams have a solid offensive potential, so I'm even going to increase my stakes a bit for this one. GL!
over 2.25 goals @ 1.99, 5/10
Result: 1-2, WON
Two high flying teams will be facing off tonight in Peru, as Sport Huancayo will be hosting Emelec. High-flying both in terms of results and style of play. Huancayo are on 5th place, with a very solid home record, where they also bolster the 3rd best attack of the league, with 22 goals scored in 13 matches. However, their defensive line is far from stable, as they also have the 3rd worst defense when it come to home games (as well as the 3rd worst defense overall). They have a nice advantage in most of their local games, as the city of Huancayo is situated at over 3000 meters of altitude, but Emelec shouldn't be too affected by this factor, being a team that plays more than half of their local league games in Quito. They've started the first tournament of the season by blitzing through their opponents, and despite a glimpse in form later on, they've held on and managed to qualify for the final. They've started in the same fashion the second round, with 4 consecutive wins (before being defeated by Deportivo Quito), and their style of play is still encouraging. The line is low, and both teams have a solid offensive potential, so I'm even going to increase my stakes a bit for this one. GL!
over 2.25 goals @ 1.99, 5/10
Result: 1-2, WON
Nacional Asuncion - The Strongest
Copa Sudamericana 2013, First Round
Going for the goals in this match, as we'll have on the pitch two teams that are traditionally high-scoring. Nacional are the reigning champions of the Paraguayan Apertura, a competition that they've won quite comfortably, and even afforded to relax during the last 5-6 rounds. They had the best offense in the league, with 40 goals scored in 22 matches, but their defense wasn't at the top, as they also conceded 25. They are a team that like to go out and control the game offensively, and don't usually have any problems in increasing the pace and taking the ball forward, movements that are alos facilitated by their 4-3-3 formation. The team didn't change too much compared to the one that won Apertura, and they are even stating that Copa Sudamericana is their next objective. The Strongest aren't known for their away games, but they also like to play an offensive game, and as a result we can see they now have 17 matches played as visitors, and in all of them they have scored at least one goal (including against Atletico Mineiro, Sao Paulo and Arsenal Sarandi, in this year's Copa Libertadores). I'll take the over rather than the handicap, because if both teams play their games, we should easily see 3 goals. GL!
over 3 goals @ 2.03, 4/10
Result: 0-0, LOST
Going for the goals in this match, as we'll have on the pitch two teams that are traditionally high-scoring. Nacional are the reigning champions of the Paraguayan Apertura, a competition that they've won quite comfortably, and even afforded to relax during the last 5-6 rounds. They had the best offense in the league, with 40 goals scored in 22 matches, but their defense wasn't at the top, as they also conceded 25. They are a team that like to go out and control the game offensively, and don't usually have any problems in increasing the pace and taking the ball forward, movements that are alos facilitated by their 4-3-3 formation. The team didn't change too much compared to the one that won Apertura, and they are even stating that Copa Sudamericana is their next objective. The Strongest aren't known for their away games, but they also like to play an offensive game, and as a result we can see they now have 17 matches played as visitors, and in all of them they have scored at least one goal (including against Atletico Mineiro, Sao Paulo and Arsenal Sarandi, in this year's Copa Libertadores). I'll take the over rather than the handicap, because if both teams play their games, we should easily see 3 goals. GL!
over 3 goals @ 2.03, 4/10
Result: 0-0, LOST
Jul 30, 2013
Inti Gas - Atletico Nacional
Copa Sudamericana 2013, First Round
We'll finally have some action in these hot summer days, as Copa Sudamericana will be underway tonight, with a few matches that are at least interesting. So let's start it in fashion, by going against the public and the bookies. Atletico Nacional have been set as strong favorites (as far as away favorites are concerned), and I agree that they are the better team. But in this first leg, I don't think that matters too much. First of all, they will be playing at high altitude, much higher than they are used to (Medellin is set at 1500 meters, and today they will play at over 2700), and even though it won't have the effect it usually has over the lowlands team, they are sure to feel it to some extent. Besides, for different reasons, in today's expected line-up they are missing several players that had key roles in their previous campaign: defenders Calle (15/0), Bernal (17/1) and Valencia (13/1), midfielder Torres (17/4) and forward Juan Pablo Angel (18/6). I'm expecting both teams to take a rather cautious approach to this game, as I'm sure both of them will be satisfied with a draw. And with the current odds, it's definitely worth to try a bet. GL!
Inti Gas (+0.5 AH) @ 2.06, 4/10
Result: 0-1, LOST
We'll finally have some action in these hot summer days, as Copa Sudamericana will be underway tonight, with a few matches that are at least interesting. So let's start it in fashion, by going against the public and the bookies. Atletico Nacional have been set as strong favorites (as far as away favorites are concerned), and I agree that they are the better team. But in this first leg, I don't think that matters too much. First of all, they will be playing at high altitude, much higher than they are used to (Medellin is set at 1500 meters, and today they will play at over 2700), and even though it won't have the effect it usually has over the lowlands team, they are sure to feel it to some extent. Besides, for different reasons, in today's expected line-up they are missing several players that had key roles in their previous campaign: defenders Calle (15/0), Bernal (17/1) and Valencia (13/1), midfielder Torres (17/4) and forward Juan Pablo Angel (18/6). I'm expecting both teams to take a rather cautious approach to this game, as I'm sure both of them will be satisfied with a draw. And with the current odds, it's definitely worth to try a bet. GL!
Inti Gas (+0.5 AH) @ 2.06, 4/10
Result: 0-1, LOST
Jul 21, 2013
Deportivo Quito - El Nacional
Ecuador Serie A, Segunda Etapa
I see some nice value here. Cuenca have improved recently, it's true, but not so much to put them down with +0.25, or low +0.5, against Deportivo Quito. Despite all their constant problems, the hosts have been performing well this season, and despite starting the second stage with a hick-up (0-4 at Loja), they recovered nicely with 2 wins, including one in a very tough game away at Independiente. The only important team news for them is the return of regular goalkeeper Carini, who comes back after a two-match ban, so this should provide them a small boost. As I said, El Nacional recovered after the worst start in their history (6 consecutive defeats in the first 6 rounds, and 9 defeats after the first 10 rounds). They are looking stable at the moment, results-wise, as they are undefeated in the last 5 games... but don't let that fool you: the only big merit for them is beating LDU Quito, because the other 4 games were played against Cuenca and Macara... both are lowly teams, and El Nacional only managed to win a game from those 4. Deportivo has the strength and the quality to see them off tonight, and I'll happily take them at these line/odds. GL!
Deportivo Quito (-0.25 AH) @ 1.79, 4/10
Result: 0-0, HALF-LOST
I see some nice value here. Cuenca have improved recently, it's true, but not so much to put them down with +0.25, or low +0.5, against Deportivo Quito. Despite all their constant problems, the hosts have been performing well this season, and despite starting the second stage with a hick-up (0-4 at Loja), they recovered nicely with 2 wins, including one in a very tough game away at Independiente. The only important team news for them is the return of regular goalkeeper Carini, who comes back after a two-match ban, so this should provide them a small boost. As I said, El Nacional recovered after the worst start in their history (6 consecutive defeats in the first 6 rounds, and 9 defeats after the first 10 rounds). They are looking stable at the moment, results-wise, as they are undefeated in the last 5 games... but don't let that fool you: the only big merit for them is beating LDU Quito, because the other 4 games were played against Cuenca and Macara... both are lowly teams, and El Nacional only managed to win a game from those 4. Deportivo has the strength and the quality to see them off tonight, and I'll happily take them at these line/odds. GL!
Deportivo Quito (-0.25 AH) @ 1.79, 4/10
Result: 0-0, HALF-LOST
Jul 18, 2013
Olimpia - Atletico MG
Copa Libertadores 2013, Final
Looking back at this season's Copa Libertadores, the current line looks like a joke. Atletico Mineiro were the most entertaining team, at least in the group stages, and have enchanted us with some fabulous results and performances, winning 5 out of their 6 matches, and scoring 16 goals on their way. The performances continued even after that, although they started to fade away after the 6-2 aggregate with Sao Paulo, struggling at time in the quarter and semi finals against Tijuana and Newell's (although we do have to agree those were tough matches, against a solid Mexican team and against the Argentinian champions). Olimpia haven't been bad either, although their matches have not been so glamorous: they've also scored 16 goals (including a 4-1 win over Newell's), but they kept it rather tight in the knock-out stages, proving that they can play both offense and defense. And today, against the in-form Brazilian stars, they will probably settle for a defensive position, despite playing at home. But the thing is that Olimpia have always scored when playing at home, regardless of the opposition (Santa Fe, Fluminense, Newell's, etc), while Mineiro have scored and conceded in almost all of their away games (the 0-2 defeat at Sao Paulo would be the exception). Two goals in this match are looking like a no-brainer, and I would go even for a higher line with some lower stakes... however, it's a final in South America, and I like the comfort zone that this line provides. GL!
over 2 goals @ 1.79, 5/10
Result: 2-0, VOID
Looking back at this season's Copa Libertadores, the current line looks like a joke. Atletico Mineiro were the most entertaining team, at least in the group stages, and have enchanted us with some fabulous results and performances, winning 5 out of their 6 matches, and scoring 16 goals on their way. The performances continued even after that, although they started to fade away after the 6-2 aggregate with Sao Paulo, struggling at time in the quarter and semi finals against Tijuana and Newell's (although we do have to agree those were tough matches, against a solid Mexican team and against the Argentinian champions). Olimpia haven't been bad either, although their matches have not been so glamorous: they've also scored 16 goals (including a 4-1 win over Newell's), but they kept it rather tight in the knock-out stages, proving that they can play both offense and defense. And today, against the in-form Brazilian stars, they will probably settle for a defensive position, despite playing at home. But the thing is that Olimpia have always scored when playing at home, regardless of the opposition (Santa Fe, Fluminense, Newell's, etc), while Mineiro have scored and conceded in almost all of their away games (the 0-2 defeat at Sao Paulo would be the exception). Two goals in this match are looking like a no-brainer, and I would go even for a higher line with some lower stakes... however, it's a final in South America, and I like the comfort zone that this line provides. GL!
over 2 goals @ 1.79, 5/10
Result: 2-0, VOID
Jul 11, 2013
Cajamarca - Universitario
Peru Primera Division, Descentralizado
Everything looks pretty much set for a home win here. Their performances this season haven't been for the best, as they find themselves only on the 11th place, but they did manage a couple of good results lately, beating leaders Real Garcilaso and drawing away at Cristal in the last two rounds. And they should have some good weapons for today: first of all, they play at high altitude, a place where Universitario doesn't feel very comfortable (out of their 5 matches played at altitude, Universitario lost 2, drew 2 and won only one). Another plus for Cajamarca will be their artifical turf, on which most teams hate to play. But perhaps their most important, advantage lies in Universitario's camp. Besides a poor recent showing (just 1 point in the last 3 games), the hosts also have a long list of absences. They will be without 7 players: defenders Nestor Duarte (22/1), Alexi Gomez (18/1) and Galliquio (8/1), midfielders Antonio Gonzalez (18/0), Carlos Olascuaga (17/3) and Angel Romero (8/0), along with forward Ximenez (9/3) will definitely miss the game. That means that Universitario will have to do without at least 4 key players, and without some good back-up on some positions. Cajamarca also won the match played in Lima, so they should have the moral upper-hand, and I really can't see them losing here tonight. GL!
Cajamarca (-0.25 AH) @ 1.89, 4/10
Result: 2-1, WON
Everything looks pretty much set for a home win here. Their performances this season haven't been for the best, as they find themselves only on the 11th place, but they did manage a couple of good results lately, beating leaders Real Garcilaso and drawing away at Cristal in the last two rounds. And they should have some good weapons for today: first of all, they play at high altitude, a place where Universitario doesn't feel very comfortable (out of their 5 matches played at altitude, Universitario lost 2, drew 2 and won only one). Another plus for Cajamarca will be their artifical turf, on which most teams hate to play. But perhaps their most important, advantage lies in Universitario's camp. Besides a poor recent showing (just 1 point in the last 3 games), the hosts also have a long list of absences. They will be without 7 players: defenders Nestor Duarte (22/1), Alexi Gomez (18/1) and Galliquio (8/1), midfielders Antonio Gonzalez (18/0), Carlos Olascuaga (17/3) and Angel Romero (8/0), along with forward Ximenez (9/3) will definitely miss the game. That means that Universitario will have to do without at least 4 key players, and without some good back-up on some positions. Cajamarca also won the match played in Lima, so they should have the moral upper-hand, and I really can't see them losing here tonight. GL!
Cajamarca (-0.25 AH) @ 1.89, 4/10
Result: 2-1, WON
Jul 6, 2013
Sport Huancayo - Leon de Huanuco
Peru Primera Division, Descentralizado
Still can't believe the opening odds here, and even though they have been slightly corrected, we still have value in this bet. Huancayo are doing a good campaign so far, sitting on 5th place in the table, and losing just one match at home, helped mainly by the high altitude present in their city. So, of course, they are pretty much favorites against anyone when playing at home, but today's game isn't a usual one. Leon de Huanuco are just 5 points behind, and if we look at their recent matches, they are one of the most in-form teams in Peru, beating Garcilaso and Universitario in their last 3 games (both of them at home, though). But what makes the current odds ridiculous, is the fact that Leon also plays at high altitude, so they shouldn't be affected by Huancayo's main weapon. And if we take a closer look to Huancayo's records, we can see that they drew at home with Garcilaso and Melgar, and lost with Inti Gas, all 3 of them being teams used to play at altitude. Leon are traditionally a tough nut to crack, so to give +0.75 for this match is just insane. GL!
Leon (+0.75 AH) @ 1.85, 4/10
Result: 1-2, WON
Still can't believe the opening odds here, and even though they have been slightly corrected, we still have value in this bet. Huancayo are doing a good campaign so far, sitting on 5th place in the table, and losing just one match at home, helped mainly by the high altitude present in their city. So, of course, they are pretty much favorites against anyone when playing at home, but today's game isn't a usual one. Leon de Huanuco are just 5 points behind, and if we look at their recent matches, they are one of the most in-form teams in Peru, beating Garcilaso and Universitario in their last 3 games (both of them at home, though). But what makes the current odds ridiculous, is the fact that Leon also plays at high altitude, so they shouldn't be affected by Huancayo's main weapon. And if we take a closer look to Huancayo's records, we can see that they drew at home with Garcilaso and Melgar, and lost with Inti Gas, all 3 of them being teams used to play at altitude. Leon are traditionally a tough nut to crack, so to give +0.75 for this match is just insane. GL!
Leon (+0.75 AH) @ 1.85, 4/10
Result: 1-2, WON
Jul 1, 2013
Barcelona - Quevedo
Ecuador Serie A, Primera Etapa
Barcelona is also without an option to get something from this Stage, but they are happy and content with the recovery the team made, after a disastrous start of the season, when the main focus was on Copa Libertadores. Once that ended, they were able to fully focus on the league, and we can see the results, having lost just one game from the last 10 played. Their main objective today is to keep improving and to end the stage on a high note, to give them a base to work on for the second stage. However, things will be made harder by a couple of high profile absences, as goalkeeper Banguera (20) and defenders Perlaza (17/0) and Erazo (16/0). That should leave quite a big hole in the defense, and Quevedo could be able to punish them, especially if they play like they did last round, when they came back into the match from 1-3 down, to beat Deportivo Quito by 4-3. Nothing at stake here, so the teams should be able to play freely, and if we combine this with those defensive absences that Barcelona has, we should most likely see several goals here. GL!
over 2.5 goals @ 1.80, 3/10
Result: 2-0, LOST
Barcelona is also without an option to get something from this Stage, but they are happy and content with the recovery the team made, after a disastrous start of the season, when the main focus was on Copa Libertadores. Once that ended, they were able to fully focus on the league, and we can see the results, having lost just one game from the last 10 played. Their main objective today is to keep improving and to end the stage on a high note, to give them a base to work on for the second stage. However, things will be made harder by a couple of high profile absences, as goalkeeper Banguera (20) and defenders Perlaza (17/0) and Erazo (16/0). That should leave quite a big hole in the defense, and Quevedo could be able to punish them, especially if they play like they did last round, when they came back into the match from 1-3 down, to beat Deportivo Quito by 4-3. Nothing at stake here, so the teams should be able to play freely, and if we combine this with those defensive absences that Barcelona has, we should most likely see several goals here. GL!
over 2.5 goals @ 1.80, 3/10
Result: 2-0, LOST
Jun 30, 2013
U Catolica - LDU Quito
Ecuador Serie A, Primera Etapa
The last round of the First Phase of the Ecuadorian Serie A will provide us a couple of very interesting match-ups. The first is to be found in Quito, where Universidad Catolica will face a resigned LDU Quito. The visitors tried hard to gun down the leaders, after a nice come-back (combined with a few wrong steps of Emelec), but right now everything is clear and they have to settle for a place on the podium. For today, they will be missing a few very important player: defender Araujo (17/0) and midfielders Saritama (15/1), Vera (14/0) and Madrid (12/1) are all recovering from injuries and are deemed unfit to play, while forwards Vitti (18/7) and Puppo (5/2) won't continue with the club, and won't participate today. That leaves LDU without 5 key players for this game, and without any objective left, so they shouldn't pose much of a threat. Catolica wants to end the year in the best possible way, the coach will use the same team that lost 0-1 with Emelec last week (after a very pleasant display) and I'm sure they will relish a win against their illustrious city rivals. LDU only won once as visitors, in 4 games, and I seriously doubt they will do it today.
Catolica (+0.25 AH) @ 1.75, 4/10
Result: 1-2, LOST
The last round of the First Phase of the Ecuadorian Serie A will provide us a couple of very interesting match-ups. The first is to be found in Quito, where Universidad Catolica will face a resigned LDU Quito. The visitors tried hard to gun down the leaders, after a nice come-back (combined with a few wrong steps of Emelec), but right now everything is clear and they have to settle for a place on the podium. For today, they will be missing a few very important player: defender Araujo (17/0) and midfielders Saritama (15/1), Vera (14/0) and Madrid (12/1) are all recovering from injuries and are deemed unfit to play, while forwards Vitti (18/7) and Puppo (5/2) won't continue with the club, and won't participate today. That leaves LDU without 5 key players for this game, and without any objective left, so they shouldn't pose much of a threat. Catolica wants to end the year in the best possible way, the coach will use the same team that lost 0-1 with Emelec last week (after a very pleasant display) and I'm sure they will relish a win against their illustrious city rivals. LDU only won once as visitors, in 4 games, and I seriously doubt they will do it today.
Catolica (+0.25 AH) @ 1.75, 4/10
Result: 1-2, LOST
Jun 23, 2013
Deportivo Capiata - Olimpia
Paraguay Primera Division
Olimpia's
coach has made it official, announcing that for what's left of the
season, he will use a completely alternative squad, in order to keep the
regulars fresh and fit for the Copa Libertadore's semi-final against
Santa Fe. They have nothing to play for in the league anyway, since
Nacional have already been crowned as champions a few rounds ago. The
only thing left for them to play for is Copa Libertadores, therefore in
the remaining two league rounds, we will be seeing a completely
different team, consisting mainly of fringe reserve players mixed with a
handful of youngsters. They're record in the league isn't great,
especially away from home, where they are on 3-5-2 and a 10-11 goal
difference. Capiata doesn't have any immediate objectives either, but
I'm sure they'll play with fire for a few reasons. First of all, they
are a small team, so any win/performance against one of the giants would
be enough reasons to celebrate.
Besides, they've already beaten Olimpia in their previous match, 3-2 as
visitors, so a repeat of that performance would be something to
remember. They also need to gather as many points as possible to make
sure they won't get caught in the relegation battle, so I'm going for
the minnows today. GL!
Capiata (+0.25 AH) @ 1.77, 4/10
Result: 1-1, HALF WON
Result: 1-1, HALF WON
LDU Quito - El Nacional
Ecuador Serie A, Primera Etapa
As the First Stage of the Ecuadorian league is entering it's final rounds, there 4 teams that are still gunning for the first place. Everybody is waiting for another misstep from Emelec in order to achieve something, but they'll be fighting until the very end. Liga de Quito is one of the challengers, as they are currently sitting just 3 points behind the leaders, and if they are to keep hoping, they'll have to win all their remaining games. Today it will be against El Nacional, a team that has recently found some form, although they are still very poor when leaving their home stadium (they have a 1-17 record on the road). LDU haven't been the same as in previous years, not even at home where they bolster a record of 6-1-2, but they are also in good form, and the chance to tie Emelec on points should give them some extra-motivation. History is also on their side, as they have won 9 of the last 10 home duels against El Nacional, and are looking good to increase those numbers. GL!
LDU (-0.75 AH) @ 1.87, 3/10
Result: 1-0, HALF-WON
As the First Stage of the Ecuadorian league is entering it's final rounds, there 4 teams that are still gunning for the first place. Everybody is waiting for another misstep from Emelec in order to achieve something, but they'll be fighting until the very end. Liga de Quito is one of the challengers, as they are currently sitting just 3 points behind the leaders, and if they are to keep hoping, they'll have to win all their remaining games. Today it will be against El Nacional, a team that has recently found some form, although they are still very poor when leaving their home stadium (they have a 1-17 record on the road). LDU haven't been the same as in previous years, not even at home where they bolster a record of 6-1-2, but they are also in good form, and the chance to tie Emelec on points should give them some extra-motivation. History is also on their side, as they have won 9 of the last 10 home duels against El Nacional, and are looking good to increase those numbers. GL!
LDU (-0.75 AH) @ 1.87, 3/10
Result: 1-0, HALF-WON
Jun 17, 2013
Spain - Uruguay
FIFA Confederations Cup 2013, Group Stage
There's
not much to say here... Everybody knows Spain, the reigning champions
of the World Cup and the European Championship, and are the main
favorites for this Confederations Cup. They do have an offensive squad,
but they also deploy the tiki-taka style of play, with which they
basically try to pass the ball until they find the right spot to take
the action forward. But that usually means a delay in the game, and they
rarely lose possesion. However, Uruguay looks like a team capable of
hurting them when they have the ball. Forlan is absent, it's true, but
they have Suarez up-front, and he will be backed by Cavani, Gaston
Ramirez and Cristian Rodriguez. So they should have a lot of options and
a lot of speed when taking their actions vertically. Put them against
Xavi, Iniesta, Villa and Torres, and we should have an
entertaining match, between two teams that have world class players,
who relish any offensive plays. Also, surprises are quite often in this
competition, so the best bet would be to go for the goals, especially
under these circumstances. GL!
over 2.5 goals @ 2.03, 4/10
Result: 2-1, WON
Result: 2-1, WON
Jun 15, 2013
Universitario - Cienciano
Peru Primera Division, Descentralizado
Universitario is aiming to reclaim the top spot in the league, although if that happens tonight it won't have a big effect, as Real Garcilaso (the current leaders) will have 3 games in hand. But it should be good for the morale, especially since Universitario have really upped their game this season. They have a solid home record of 6-1-2, and are undefeated in their last 6 matches. No important absences for this game, and with Ruidiaz finally getting back into form, they could pose a serious title challenge for Garcilaso, Cristal and Alianza Lima. Cienciano are also in great form, being undefeated in their last 7 games, but 5 of them have been played at home, and we know how strong they can get in the heights of Cuzco. But we do have to mention their incredible 1-0 victory away at Alianza Lima, at the end of April. I'll pin that down to a once-in-a-hundred game, because if we look at the big picture, they're away form is quite bad, losing points even against other teams that are playing at altitude. Universitario look very serious this year, and I simply can't see them failing at home against Cienciano. GL!
Universitario (-1 AH) @ 1.88, 3/10
Result: 0-0, LOST
Universitario is aiming to reclaim the top spot in the league, although if that happens tonight it won't have a big effect, as Real Garcilaso (the current leaders) will have 3 games in hand. But it should be good for the morale, especially since Universitario have really upped their game this season. They have a solid home record of 6-1-2, and are undefeated in their last 6 matches. No important absences for this game, and with Ruidiaz finally getting back into form, they could pose a serious title challenge for Garcilaso, Cristal and Alianza Lima. Cienciano are also in great form, being undefeated in their last 7 games, but 5 of them have been played at home, and we know how strong they can get in the heights of Cuzco. But we do have to mention their incredible 1-0 victory away at Alianza Lima, at the end of April. I'll pin that down to a once-in-a-hundred game, because if we look at the big picture, they're away form is quite bad, losing points even against other teams that are playing at altitude. Universitario look very serious this year, and I simply can't see them failing at home against Cienciano. GL!
Universitario (-1 AH) @ 1.88, 3/10
Result: 0-0, LOST
FBC Melgar - Leon de Huanuco
Peru Primera Division, Descentralizado
Home-monsters FBC Melgar will be facing an irregular Leon de Huanuco tonight. There's not a big difference between the two teams in the standings, with Melgar sitting on 9th place, just 2 points ahead of their opponents, but the thing that makes Melgar favorite for this game is their fantastic home form. They have won 6 out of 9 home games so far... their last 6, actually, and that is really an incredible feat at first sight. But if we look closer at the teams they've played against, we can see that not a single one of them is used to playing at high altitude. Previous to those 6 straight wins, they've played against Alianza Lima, Cienciano and Inti Gas (the last two coming from cities at altitude), and they've lost all of them. And Leon is a team that relishes these kinds of matches. They have a good record in their away games, have a solid team that's hard to break and can really put up a fight. Even though they're recent form hasn't been the best, I have faith that they won't go down so easily, and I'll back them with a small bet here. GL!
Leon (+0.5 AH) @ 1.83, 3/10
Result: 1-1, WON
Home-monsters FBC Melgar will be facing an irregular Leon de Huanuco tonight. There's not a big difference between the two teams in the standings, with Melgar sitting on 9th place, just 2 points ahead of their opponents, but the thing that makes Melgar favorite for this game is their fantastic home form. They have won 6 out of 9 home games so far... their last 6, actually, and that is really an incredible feat at first sight. But if we look closer at the teams they've played against, we can see that not a single one of them is used to playing at high altitude. Previous to those 6 straight wins, they've played against Alianza Lima, Cienciano and Inti Gas (the last two coming from cities at altitude), and they've lost all of them. And Leon is a team that relishes these kinds of matches. They have a good record in their away games, have a solid team that's hard to break and can really put up a fight. Even though they're recent form hasn't been the best, I have faith that they won't go down so easily, and I'll back them with a small bet here. GL!
Leon (+0.5 AH) @ 1.83, 3/10
Result: 1-1, WON
Jun 9, 2013
Brazil - France
International Friendly Match
There's
no need to go into too much details for this game, as we all know about
Brazil and France. Both have great players, and are solid squads, even
though they have left us with a sour taste recently. France are far away
from their glory
days, as they went through a lot of trouble and a lot of changes (also,
some not so good coaches), and their best performance in recent years
is just a quarter-final in last year's European Championship. Brazil is
also in a similar position, even more so, since they haven't had any
official matches since 2011, when they lost in the Copa America
quarter-finals with Paraguay. And their recent results are nothing to
brag about, as they have won just one game from their last 8 games, 4-0
against Bolivia. Other than that, worth mentioning are a couple of draws
with Russia and Chile. They will use their Confederations Cup squad,
and they have a lot of skilled players, but they don't seem as a
blend-in team. Therefore, game relations are suffering, and unless the
players show a glimpse of genius, they struggle to create dangerous
chances. France is also using a team with mixed players, combining
experience and youth. They still have a solid team, with players
like Benzema, Gomis and others, so they should at least be able to keep
it tight with Brazil. It is a friendly game, after all, and Brazil's
form isn't great either, so a handicap line of 1 is just too much. Worth
for some small stakes. GL!
France (+1 AH) @ 1.80, 3/10
Result: 3-0, LOST
Result: 3-0, LOST
Jun 8, 2013
Peru - Ecuador
World Cup 2014 Qualifiers, CONMEBOL
This will pretty much be a decisive match for Peru, as they are playing their last chance of qualifying to the World Cup. With a win here, they will amount a total of 14 points, that could leave them just 1 point behind the play-off spot (provided either Chile or Venezuela don't win today). Besides, Peru has one game in hand, so they can get knee-deep in the qualification fight. Peru are a very organized team under coach Markarian, and can be quite a tough nut to crack, as they've only lost once in their last 10 games, 0-1 at Paraguay. 3-1-1 is their record in Lima in these qualifiers, a run which includes a win against Chile and a draw with Argentina. Once again, the focus of attention will be on the 'Fantastic 4', as Farfan, Pizzaro, Guerrero and Vargas are expected to start and to command Peru's offensive. Ecuador is sitting quite comfortably on 2nd place, 5 points ahead of the last qualifying place, and also with a game in hand. So it's really quite hard to see them failing to qualify after such an incredible campaign. However, almost all of their points came at home, as they have a 0-2-2 record away from home. Tonight they will also have to cope with the absence of in-form striker Felipe Caicedo, which could prove a big blow to them. All in all, Peru is the team that has a lot at stake here, they have some classy players in offense, and they could take advantage of Ecuador's struggle's outside their country. GL!
Peru (-0.25 AH) @ 2.03, 4/10
Result: 1-0, WON
This will pretty much be a decisive match for Peru, as they are playing their last chance of qualifying to the World Cup. With a win here, they will amount a total of 14 points, that could leave them just 1 point behind the play-off spot (provided either Chile or Venezuela don't win today). Besides, Peru has one game in hand, so they can get knee-deep in the qualification fight. Peru are a very organized team under coach Markarian, and can be quite a tough nut to crack, as they've only lost once in their last 10 games, 0-1 at Paraguay. 3-1-1 is their record in Lima in these qualifiers, a run which includes a win against Chile and a draw with Argentina. Once again, the focus of attention will be on the 'Fantastic 4', as Farfan, Pizzaro, Guerrero and Vargas are expected to start and to command Peru's offensive. Ecuador is sitting quite comfortably on 2nd place, 5 points ahead of the last qualifying place, and also with a game in hand. So it's really quite hard to see them failing to qualify after such an incredible campaign. However, almost all of their points came at home, as they have a 0-2-2 record away from home. Tonight they will also have to cope with the absence of in-form striker Felipe Caicedo, which could prove a big blow to them. All in all, Peru is the team that has a lot at stake here, they have some classy players in offense, and they could take advantage of Ecuador's struggle's outside their country. GL!
Peru (-0.25 AH) @ 2.03, 4/10
Result: 1-0, WON
Jun 5, 2013
Jamaica - Mexico
World Cup 2014, CONCACAF Qualifiers
Mexico went off to a very rough start in these qualifications, something that is very rare to see, as they are without a doubt the best team in their geographical area. But right now they are in a bit of a jam, as they only have 3 points from their first 3 matches, drawing with all their opponents so far (USA, Jamaica and Honduras). So there's no space for more mistakes, as they could find themselves well behind the rest of the challengers, and even though the 4th place leads to a play-off, I'm sure they'll want a direct qualification. Full squad is expected for them, with the best available players, as coach de la Torre won't be taking any chances. Ochoa, Rodriguez, Moreno, Torrado, Guardado and Chicharito Hernandez are some of the high-profile players that have been called-up, and will most likely start from the first minute. Against them, we'll have Jamaica, a team without any big players, results or tradition. They got to this stage from a group with USA, Guatemala and Antigua & Barbuda... easy group to qualify from, but their best feat was being able to defeat USA at home. However, now it should be a different story, as Mexico needs the points, and they have the quality to take all of them. The odds are very good, considering how normally we wouldn't get anything above 1.50, so this bet is definitely worth a go. GL!
Mexico (-0.5 AH) @ 1.94, 5/10
Result: 0-1, WON
Mexico went off to a very rough start in these qualifications, something that is very rare to see, as they are without a doubt the best team in their geographical area. But right now they are in a bit of a jam, as they only have 3 points from their first 3 matches, drawing with all their opponents so far (USA, Jamaica and Honduras). So there's no space for more mistakes, as they could find themselves well behind the rest of the challengers, and even though the 4th place leads to a play-off, I'm sure they'll want a direct qualification. Full squad is expected for them, with the best available players, as coach de la Torre won't be taking any chances. Ochoa, Rodriguez, Moreno, Torrado, Guardado and Chicharito Hernandez are some of the high-profile players that have been called-up, and will most likely start from the first minute. Against them, we'll have Jamaica, a team without any big players, results or tradition. They got to this stage from a group with USA, Guatemala and Antigua & Barbuda... easy group to qualify from, but their best feat was being able to defeat USA at home. However, now it should be a different story, as Mexico needs the points, and they have the quality to take all of them. The odds are very good, considering how normally we wouldn't get anything above 1.50, so this bet is definitely worth a go. GL!
Mexico (-0.5 AH) @ 1.94, 5/10
Result: 0-1, WON
Jun 4, 2013
Romania - Trinidad & Tobago
International Friendly Match
Interesting match in Bucharest, as we see two different and unusual teams in this friendly set-up. Romania lost it's glory days for quite a while, and are now usually struggling even against more modest opposition. However, I just can't see beyond an easy win for them in this game, as Trinidad & Tobago are just not on the same level. For the hosts, we'll see a few new players, as coach Piturca is keen on testing out new players ahead of the official matches. But the new ones have had a fairly good season in their league, and besides them, we'll also see some of the veterans (Rat, Goian, Torje, Marica and Stancu). No word yet on the starting line-up, but we'll probably see a mixed squad of veterans and inexperienced players, and there should be a lot of changes throughout the game. But in all honesty, whatever players will walk on the pitch, it should be more than enough to see off T&T. The Carribean team is also traveling without some of their most capped players, and only 7 of their squad are performing in Europe (most of them are playing in Finland or in the English lower divisions), while the core of the team plays in the local league. And if we look at their matches from the last 6 months, I just can't see how a team that loses to Antigua & Barbuda and draws with Martinique, can stand in front of a much better team. GL!
Romania (-1.5 AH) @ 1.96, 4/10
Result: 4-0, WON
Interesting match in Bucharest, as we see two different and unusual teams in this friendly set-up. Romania lost it's glory days for quite a while, and are now usually struggling even against more modest opposition. However, I just can't see beyond an easy win for them in this game, as Trinidad & Tobago are just not on the same level. For the hosts, we'll see a few new players, as coach Piturca is keen on testing out new players ahead of the official matches. But the new ones have had a fairly good season in their league, and besides them, we'll also see some of the veterans (Rat, Goian, Torje, Marica and Stancu). No word yet on the starting line-up, but we'll probably see a mixed squad of veterans and inexperienced players, and there should be a lot of changes throughout the game. But in all honesty, whatever players will walk on the pitch, it should be more than enough to see off T&T. The Carribean team is also traveling without some of their most capped players, and only 7 of their squad are performing in Europe (most of them are playing in Finland or in the English lower divisions), while the core of the team plays in the local league. And if we look at their matches from the last 6 months, I just can't see how a team that loses to Antigua & Barbuda and draws with Martinique, can stand in front of a much better team. GL!
Romania (-1.5 AH) @ 1.96, 4/10
Result: 4-0, WON
May 26, 2013
Juventud - Penarol
Uruguay Primera Division, Clausura
Another bet from Uruguay, as we have another match that promises a lot. Both teams are still in the fight for glory, even though it's a different kind of glory. Penarol are knee-deep in the title race, 3 points behind Clausura league-leaders Defensor, and one point above them in the Annual table (everything is important here: Penarol won Apertura so if they will also win Clausua they will be automatically crowned champions. If they lose Clausura, they will play in the semi-final with Defensor... if they win the annual table and the semi-final, they will be crowned champions). And for this game, they are putting everything on the line, as they have practiced with a very offensive line-up: two forwards (Zalayeta and Pacheco) and two quick wingers (Estoyanoff and Nunez), plus a move in the defensive line, where offensive minded Aguirregaray will play as a right wing-back. A more offensive formation than usual, as they will be going all out for the title. Juventud, on the other hand, are going for their qualification to Copa Sudamericana, which will be an incredible feat for them. They are tied on points with Wanderers and Fenix for the 6th place, the last that provides continental qualification. And besides this, which should provide extra motivation, they also have a solid home record, with 4-1-2, and just a couple of weeks ago they managed to beat Nacional by 2-0. They certainly won't roll over, and they should try and exploit the spaces that Penarol will leave behind. So I'm confident that we will see several goals here. GL!
over 2.5 goals @ 1.94, 3/10
Result: 1-5, WON
Another bet from Uruguay, as we have another match that promises a lot. Both teams are still in the fight for glory, even though it's a different kind of glory. Penarol are knee-deep in the title race, 3 points behind Clausura league-leaders Defensor, and one point above them in the Annual table (everything is important here: Penarol won Apertura so if they will also win Clausua they will be automatically crowned champions. If they lose Clausura, they will play in the semi-final with Defensor... if they win the annual table and the semi-final, they will be crowned champions). And for this game, they are putting everything on the line, as they have practiced with a very offensive line-up: two forwards (Zalayeta and Pacheco) and two quick wingers (Estoyanoff and Nunez), plus a move in the defensive line, where offensive minded Aguirregaray will play as a right wing-back. A more offensive formation than usual, as they will be going all out for the title. Juventud, on the other hand, are going for their qualification to Copa Sudamericana, which will be an incredible feat for them. They are tied on points with Wanderers and Fenix for the 6th place, the last that provides continental qualification. And besides this, which should provide extra motivation, they also have a solid home record, with 4-1-2, and just a couple of weeks ago they managed to beat Nacional by 2-0. They certainly won't roll over, and they should try and exploit the spaces that Penarol will leave behind. So I'm confident that we will see several goals here. GL!
over 2.5 goals @ 1.94, 3/10
Result: 1-5, WON
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