Al-Wahda - Pachuca

FIFA Club World Cup

Well, Pachuca really disappointed in the quarter finals, creating far too few dangerous actions to really put enough pressure on the African's defense, and they payed the price for that, losing and being knocked-out of the competition. But now I think it's a good chance to recover our money. Al-Wahda's defense seems even poorer than Mazembe's, as it could have been broken even by Hekari (the Papua New Guineans missed a couple of nice chances, and put some pressure one them in the first half, but their low quality prevented them from scoring), and it was sliced open by Seongnam with 4 goals. And Pachuca just had a bad day against Mazembe, as they definitely got more than they showed. However, their defense is still a problem, as well as their goalkeeper, and with Al-Whada having a couple of very skilled Brazilians (Huga and Fernando Baiano), I'm expecting them to score again, at least one goal. The Mexicans also have some quality forwards, and I just can't believe they will leave the tournament without scoring at least a goal, and with how Al-Wahda's defense presented itself so far, one goal will surely come, and will most likely lead to others. GL!

over 2.5 goals @ 1.81, 4/10

Result: 2-2, WON

Mazembe - Internacional

FIFA Club World Cup, Semi-Final

Also think it's time that Mazembe makes a small refund for the money lost on the over in their previous game. They weren't very impressive in their last match. They scored a screamer early in the game, and they just tried to defend the result. They played with a lot of heart, but their defensive ideas weren't too good, and the only reason why they managed to qualify to the semi-final is because Pachuca was close to awful in attack. With Internacional, I expect a whole different story. They have some very good players, and also a very good style of play. They are organized at the back, rarely allowing their opponents any spaces, and when they attack, they can be deadly. D'Alessandro is the playmaker of the team, and their best player, while Alecsandro is the man you can rely upon to put the ball in the back of the net. I really think this should be a clear and easy win for the Brazilians, as the Africans are shaky in the back, and lack too much talent and creativity up-front, relying only on powerful shots, a thing that Internacional rarely allows. The handicap is much better than the over, as for a full win with the over we need 4 goals, and I don't see Mazembe scoring at all. GL!

Internacional (-1.5 AH) @ 1.80, 4/10

Result: 2-0, LOST

Huracan - Independiente

Argentina Primera Division, Apertura

Two teams in crisis of results will face each other tonight in Buenos Aires, and it's high time one of them wins. There is a lack of results in Primera Division for both teams, with Huracan losing their last 6 consecutive games and Independiente without a win for 7 matches, but for the Avellaneda team there is certainly not a lack of success, as they are the newly crowned champions of Copa Sudamericana, and that gives them a ticket for the preliminary round of Copa Libertadores 2011. Despite their run of 7 matches without a win, they have only lost 2 out of them, one away at surprise package All Boys, and one at home against eventual Apertura champions Estudiantes. But keep in mind, all of those matches were played with an alternative line-up, and rarely we could have seen more than 2-3 regulars, in order to rest them for Copa Sudamericana. But now, with the continental competition over, the rotation should be over, and tonight, more than half of the regulars are expected to start the game. Huracan looks hopeless at the moment, and their play seems even poorer than Gimnasia's, and I honestly don't know what they can do to turn things around. Maybe for Clausura, with a few good transfers, but Apertura is over for them. Independiente is on fire, and I expect them to bring the Sudamericana enthusiasm into this match, but I'll keep the stakes low, as the same enthusiasm could backfire on them. GL!

Independiente DNB @ 2.04, 3/10

Result: 1-0, LOST

Racing Club - Velez Sarsfield

Argentina Primera Division, Apertura

I'm going for the surprise here. Velez need to win and hope that Estudiantes doesn't, in order to win the title, or at least to force a deciding match between them. But in South America, unlike in most European countries, the rest of the teams don't bend over in the last round, and don't let the title hopefuls on a free run to the title. And we've seen this over and over again (Apertura 2009 - Banfield and Newell's were fighting for the title, and both teams lost in the last round; Clausura 2010 - Estudiantes drew at home against relegated Rosario Central, in the penultimate match of the season, gifting the title to Argentinos). So why can't we see something similar today? Especially since both teams are having very tough games. Racing is a very tough to beat team, especially when they are playing at home. They have a great offensive trio, Moreno-Hauche-Bieler, and they are scoring goals like crazy (all of them are expected to start). Of course, Velez's offense is even better, with Silva and Martinez topping the top scorers table, but if Estudiantes takes an early start, I seriously doubt their motivation. Thei away form also isn't as frightening as it should, so I think they'll have a lot of fighting to do. Odds are set like this only based on Velez's 'need to win', but in Argentina, that need to win usually means squat, and Racing not to lose looks like a nice bet. GL!

Racing (+0.5 AH) @ 1.82, 4/10

Result: 0-2, LOST

Universidad San Martin - Leon de Huanuco

Peru Primera Division, Final

After the first match ended, I clearly said to myself that the second match will be a no-bet. But due to some events that happened in the last few days, I changed my mind a bit. The most important thing is that Rodas's red card has been deemed illegal, so the small winger will play. And that is a huge boost for Leon, as Rodas is their best players, and 75% of the goals they have scored either came from him, either were scored by him. The only one that is still suspended is striker Calheira, but their main attacking force, Perea, is going to play. San Martin has started an earthquake after learning that Rodas can play, but they had no other option than accept it. So now I expect some extra motivation from their part, to prove they can win the title even with Rodas on the pitch. The suspended striker Arriola is an important miss, but they have a large number of offensive players, and Alemano, Garcia or Vitti can do the job for the Saints. And since the first match ended as a draw, this match is a must win for both teams (in case of a draw, a third game will take place), as none of them will want a decider, especially Huanuco, since they won't be able to choose the venue, so they surely won't be able to rely on the altitude advantage. I see a lot of goals here. GL!

over 2.5 goals @ 1.92, 4/10

Result: 2-1, WON

Cucuta Deportivo - Once Caldas

Colombia Liga Postobon, Play-off

Odds dropped massively on home win, so there's surely no more value here. And even with some higher odds, this could have been tricky... both teams are playing for nothing, but morale should be clearly better in the Once Caldas camp, as they will play the national final, while Cucuta practically ended their season already, without anything major happening for them. And besides that, Once Caldas has the best squad in the league, so it won't be so easy to beat them, even if they are playing with their secondary players (because they are, as they have to play the finals next week). What I do expect in this game, are goals. As I said, Once's players that will start today's game are still at least decent players, and they can surely score here. Meanwhile, Cucuta will probably use their strongest line-up, in order to finish the season on a high note, and give the fans a last win on their stadium, against the probable champions. Without any pressure on either team, they will probably just focus on playing nice, and giving the fans something to cheer about, and the same should apply for Once Caldas. We should see some goals here, but small stakes, as you can't really trust Colombians. GL!

over 2.5 goals @ 1.82, 3/10

Result: 2-1, WON

All Boys - Godoy Cruz

Argentina Primera Division, Apertura

Last round of Apertura starts today, and we'll see in action two teams that have no further plans left for 2010. Godoy Cruz has sealed it's place in Copa Libertadores 2011, so they can afford to take it easy tonight. And they'll have a huge handicap from the beginning, as they will miss a couple of key players due to some injuries. First of all, their two top scorers are both absent (David Ramirez - 8 goals, Jairo Castillo - 6 goals), and both are in the league's top 10 goalscorers, leaving the team without main firepower. But things don't end here for them, as they will also miss two more key players, midfielder Nicolas Olmedo (16 games) and defender Zelman Garcia (17 matches), and they will leave quite some big gaps, that All Boys are likely to exploit. The newly promoted team has been amazing this Apertura, winning 7 out of 9 matches at home, being just below Velez and Estudiantes from this point of view. And they seem quite motivated to end this great year in great fashion, with another win at home, a venue where they already won against River or Estudiantes. They have a few doubts in their team, and their team won't be the best they have, but at least they will change back to the 4-3-1-2 formation (unlike in the last game against Gimnasia). At first sight, the over looked good, because All Boys will have a debutant as a central defender, but with Godoy's absences upfront, I have my doubts about them scoring. All Boys to win looks a bit better. GL!

All Boys (-0.5 AH) @ 2.15, 3/10

Result: 2-2, LOST

Mazembe - Pachuca

FIFA Club World Cup

Good odds for the over here, and I'll take them with some higher stakes than usual, as I see a nice opportunity for several goals. The CONCACAF and CAF champions are facing each other on Friday, and we have two pretty offensive teams. Pachuca is one of the teams from Mexico that it's worth watching, because very rarely they finish a match without both of the teams scoring (they have conceded at least 1 goal in all their matches in the Mexican league this season). So that explains why they have one of the best attacks in the league, but also one of the worst defenses. Strikers Cvitanich and Arizala (both of them in very good form) are sure to cause some damage to the African's defense, as they fit perfectly in Pachuca's fast attacking tactics, while it is a usual thing that African defenders and goalkeepers are far from trustworthy. Meanwhile, since Mazembe can't really count on their defense, they are also employing an offensive style of play, and knowing how 'well' Pachuca defends, I'm pretty sure we'll be in for another match in which both teams will score. The Mexicans should normally win this match in regular time, and the odds aren't bad, but somehow I like this bet more. 2-1 would be my call. GL!

over 2.5 goals @ 2.06, 5/10

Result: 1-0, LOST

Independiente - Goias

Copa Sudamericana

After a poor first leg from both teams, Goias took a probably unhoped for 2 goals advantage. Both teams were poor, Independiente failing to make any dangerous chances or putting some pressure on the hosts, while the Brazilian team scored 2 early goals and the sit back, happy with the result, despite playing with an extra man for the last half an hour, in which they decided not to press for a third goal. For the return leg, I'm expecting some things to change, as Independiente needs to attack from the start, and they are well capable of doing just that. They showed some improvements in their play ever since coach Mohamed took over the team, and they made some good matches against LDU Quito, or in the first leg against Tolima (even in the league, despite playing only with reserves, they have lost just once in the last 5 games - although they haven't won a single one of them). Goias is nothing special, and as a proof they have been relegated from the first league of Brazil. And it's traditional for Brazilian teams to face hell in Argentina, so expect a full stadium that will be against them, putting a lot of pressure. Despite the first leg loss, Independiente still have a pretty good chance of lifting the trophy, and I'm sure they'll win this game, even if it will be by a one goal margin (though I doubt it). GL!

Independiente (-0.75) @ 2.33, 4/10

Result: 3-1, WON

Leon de Huanuco - Universidad San Martin

Peru Primera Division, Final

Odds are a bit lower than what I expected, but I'm going to trust Leon one more time this season. Without a doubt, these two teams are the best Peruvian teams of the season, thanks to some excellent coaching and some key players (Rodas and Perea for Leon, Alemanno, Vitti and Arriola for San Martin). Full squads are expected for both teams, so let's not sit on that for too much. For Leon, this can be a memorable moment, coming straight up from the second division and winning the title, so I'm sure they are going to give more than 100%, and they will receive great support from the entire city of Huanuco, which has started some sort of holiday, especially for this final. Then, we also have the altitude. San Martin showed great play this year, winning drastically even at a lot of meters above the sea level, but all those matches were against teams from the lower half of the league: Melgar, Cienciano and Huancayo. The only match at altitude that matters here is the one played in Huanuco, where Leon took a solid 4-2 win. Not expecting a similar scoreline today, as all that Leon needs is a win, and that is also why I'm avoiding the over bet. Leon showed great football throughout the year, and certainly earned my entire confidence, and I'm giving them another shot today. GL!

Leon Huanuco @ 2.07, 3/10

Result: 1-1, LOST

Gimnasia - All Boys

Argentina Primera Division, Apertura

Gimnasia keeps going from bad to worse, and it looks like a lock the fact that they will once again have to play a decider, at the end of the season, to see if they remain in the Primera Division. And, with the way they are playing, the only thing that could change that would be a direct relegation, as I honestly don't see them climbing above the play-off area any time soon. And things aren't getting any better for tonight's match, as they will miss several important players: midfielder Rinaudo and top-scorer Cordoba are absent with injuries, while defender Casco is suspended. Those absences are sure the damage Gimnasia even more, and I expect another poor match from them. All Boys are having a great campaign, and could be in with a real chance of qualifying to Copa Sudamericana at the end of the season, after spending 30 years in the lower divisions. But, despite their good performances and good play, they are still without a win in away games, so I trust them fully to try and change that tonight. They will also have a couple of absences, but overall they are much better than Gimnasia, and should be able to cope without those players, especially since their key players are up for the game. GL!

All Boys DNB @ 1.95, 3/10

Result: 3-1, LOST

Sporting Cristal - Jose Galvez

Peru Primera Division, Liguilla A

Quick and small bet on this one, moving this match in my list from a no-bet, to a small stakes home win. Jose Galvez is fighting for their lives here, and only a win can help them. Any other result condemns them to relegate to Segunda Division, as in case of a draw, they will be at most equal on points with either Cienciano or Alianza Atletico, but with a far worse goal difference. So all their cards will be played here, and they'll go all-in from the start of the match in order to find those vital 3 points. Needless to say they will be with a full squad. For Cristal, the season is over, and with a huge disappointment, as after appearing to fight for the title in the first half of the season, they slowly faded, and missed everything, even a spot for Copa Sudamericana. This will be the farewell match for coach Rivera, and in order to keep his integrity and to avoid any comments, he decided to field his best players, so as not to give Jose Galvez and unfair advantages (although this can be done with ease, even with the regulars in the field). That's why I give them the upper hand here, especially with the current odds, but the stakes will be small, as despite Cristal's full strength team, they are still fighting for nothing, and motivation is probably as low as it gets. GL!

Sporting Cristal DNB @ 1.76, 3/10

Result: 2-0, WON

Tacuarembo - Defensor Sporting

Uruguay Primera Division, Apertura

The odds on Defensor make me want to cry, but they are rightly set, and I'm having little doubts they will lose this one. They are on the top spot of the standings, and they need to win here in order to secure the title. Of course, they could do that even with a draw or a loss, but it looks unlikely that both Nacional and Bella Vista will fail to win their matches, especially since both of them are playing against weaker opposition. Defensor is in good form, despite their last round loss at home against Nacional (their only defeat in the last 10 games), and are a free-scoring team, putting the ball in the opposition net 28 times in 14 matches, having the best attack in the league. Tacuarembo are the worst team in the league, managing to get only 5 points, and are on a dreadful run of 8 consecutive losses, in which they have managed to score just a single goal. And it gets better: for today, Tacuarembo's coach will field a team of youngsters, grew at the club, in order to see if something good shows up for the Clausura. Those guys have played a lot of matches together in the youth divisions, but the quality gap between them and Defensor is simply huge, and I doubt they can make an instant impact against the best team in the league, which on top of it all is also in need of points. GL!

Defensor Sporting (-1.25 AH) @ 2.07, 5/10

Result: 1-3, WON

Sport Huancayo - Juan Aurich

Peru Primera Division, Liguilla B

Useless match for both teams here. Their objectives are already completed (Huancayo to get a safe mid-table place), or already busted (Aurich's run for the title or at least the Copa Libertadores), so both teams will be playing just to finish their fixtures. Juan Aurich is coming after some heavy pressure after losing at home to Cienciano, with everyone accusing them of stepping aside in order to give Cienciano a helping hand. Morale isn't the best in the team, and because of that, plus the fatigue accumulated throughout the season, coach Reynoso has already accepted to give a rest to some of the most used players. No line-up available yet, so it's not sure how many reserves will play, but there will be at least 4. The good news for them is that both Manco and Montes will start up-front, so we can expect some goals from their part. Sport Huancayo is reported to send their best line-up, without having anything to fight for. Irven Avila and Miguel Mostto are expected to start in attack, and they are in very good form, top scorers of the team, so also expecting goals from them. Sport Huancayo no doubt have the upper hand here, also due to the high altitude, but I'm going for goals, as odds on home win are laughable, and the -0.75 could be easily cut to half with a 2-1, which is quite possible. GL!

over 2.5 goals @ 2.02, 3/10

Result: 2-0, LOST

Alianza Lima - Universidad San Martin

Peru Primera Division, Liguilla A

Both teams have finished the season in the upper part of the table, and neither one of them has the necessity to win here. Furthermore, both teams will be using alternative teams, for different reasons. San Martin will rest all of their regular players, because just like Leon, they have to play the final in just 4 days, so it's essential for them to avoid injuries or suspensions. And most of the players that are expected to play today are the ones that also played last week, losing at home to the last placed team, Total Chalaco. Not impressive... On the other hand, Alianza secured their Libertadores spot, in favor of Universitario, and with their objective clinched, they have decided to give early holidays to several key players, the ones that have been playing constantly. Therefore, players like Libman (GK), Fleitas (DF), Gonzalez (MF), Alex Sanchez (MF) and Quinteros (MF) won't take any parts in today's clash. But, besides the players already in the off-season, coach Costas has stated he will use the best available players, as he wishes to avenge that 0-4 trashing they received last time they played against San Martin. And even without those 5 players, they should still have enough quality left to dispatch San Martin's reserves/youngsters. Smaller stakes than for Sport Boys though. GL!

Alianza Lima @ 2.05, 4/10 

Result: 1-1, LOST

Colon - River

Argentina Primera Division, Apertura

I'll stick with the trend here, and go for the under again, as today, we will have two teams that are looking incapable of scoring, or creating some solid chances. Those who have watched River playing, know that only one word can describe them: boredom. They are indeed pretty solid at the back, and defend pretty well, but when it comes to go on the attack, they just lack any ideas of creativity. Most of their actions are very easy to read, and even when the ball reaches the area successfully, the finishing is just awful. And Colon's offense is just as poor, so if someone is expecting any type of excitement from this match, he should be in for a very nasty surprise. I'm expecting both teams to focus on the defense, especially now that River is out of the play-off places, and every lost match for them is likely to send them back. And with their poor form away, their aproach has to be careful, especially since they can't count on a good offensive game. Colon should take advantage of the weak River, but it won't be easy. The good thing is that they tend to sit back and defend if they open the score, so I'm not expecting more than 1 goal from them, and that is 1 goal too many than what I expect from River. With just 4 matches out of 16 finishing with more than 2 goals, I think this game goes as a good opportunity for another poor performance from both teams. GL!

under 2 goals @ 2.11, 3/10

Result: 1-2, LOST

Sport Boys - Leon Huanuco

Peru Primera Division, Liguilla B

Last round also in Peru, and 90% of the teams are already thinking about the holidays or the next season. This, of course, isn't the case for Leon de Huanuco, who will play the final of the championship, but their heads surely aren't in this match. With just 4 days before the first leg of the championship final, Leon will be resting/saving all their regular players, in order to avoid injuries, fatigue and/or bookings. That is why only 13 players have made the trip to Callao, and most of them are youngsters. All the main players, and a few reserves, are still in Huanuco, preparing for the final. The youngsters will be relishing the opportunity to play a full match, and will probably try their best to impress the coach for next season, but their lack of experience, and the fact that they are playing together for the first time this season, should be some big disadvantages for them. Sport Boys are safe from relegation, so no worries for them, but it still looks as if they will be using their best players for this game, already expressing their wish to finish the season with a victory at home against one of the finalists. Odds aren't so good for a lowly team against a great Leon, but if the line-ups will be as expected, Sport Boys are almost sure to win. GL!

Sport Boys (-0.75 AH) @ 1.89, 3/10

Result: 3-1, WON

Total Chalaco - Inti Gas

Peru Primera Division, Liguilla A

Not the greatest of bets here, but I think it's worth a shot here. The thing that makes it a bit tricky is the fact that both teams are playing for nothing. Total Chalaco are already packing their bags for Segunda Division, while Inti Gas can breathe easily, as they live to see another season in Primera, while they are not fighting for anything in this last round.So, motivation should be weak for both teams, but Chalaco's endless problems are making me lean towards the visitors. The players and staff of Chalaco are still being abandoned by the people in charge, as they have been for the past couple of months. They haven't been paid in quite a while, and for some matches, they even had to take taxis to reach the stadium, as the owner didn't even provide them with a bus. For today, a bus will be provided by the Federation. Sadly for them, the players are sick and tired of this treatement, and all of them are wishing it to be over. That's why several players have decided not to show up for this match, and the coach will have at his disposal only a few regulars... the rest of the team will have to be filled with youngsters. Now, Inti Gas isn't a great team, especially when playing away, but morale is sure to be higher, and they have a fair chance here. GL!

Inti Gas DNB @ 2.11, 3/10

Result: 2-2, VOID

Alianza Atletico - Sport Huancayo

Peru Primera Division, Liguilla B

Time to draw the line for Alianza Atletico. Just two games remaining, and with only 2 points separating them from Cienciano, a win today is a must, no matter what their rivals do. All the hopes are based on a win today, as if Cienciano loses or draws, Alianza is saved. Otherwise, the final showdown  will take place next week, in Cusco, and I'm sure everyone at Alianza would like to avoid having to play a decisive game in the heights of Cusco. Everybody says this is a final, the most important match of the season, and all the players are 100% focused, wanting to win today, trying to prolonge their recent good form (have only lost 2 matches from the last 10). Sport Huancayo is without any worries, so I have my doubts regarding their committement and focus. They allowed Cienciano to pull level last week, so their concentration is already fading. So far, they have lost every time they visited Sullana, and I don't think that will change now, when the players are thinking more about the holiday than about their remaining matches. GL!

Alianza Atletico (-0.75 AH) @ 1.74, 5/10

Result: 0-0, LOST

Cobresal - Deportes La Serena

Chile Primera Division

Same story with this match. Cobresal is one of the hopefuls of reaching a spot for the Copa Libertadores liguilla, while La Serena needs points today, otherwise they could be entangled in the fight to avoid relegation in the last rounds, and no one at the club wants to have such an unncesary pressure on them. So they'll go for the win, of course, but they have quite a few absences, and their defense is likely to be a Swiss Cheese. 5 are the defensive absences that they will have, and will practically have to change their entire defensive line (Tapia, Rojas, Pardo, Guidi and Delgado), as well as an important figure from the midfield line, Patricio Rubina. Therefore, they will most probably field a new and shaky defense, either with non-regulars, either with repositioned players. Either way, they are very likely to suffer from every Cobresal attack. Cobresal will also be missing a couple of players, due to suspensions, and they will also have to suffer in the defensive area, as they will be missing defender Eduardo Farias and midfielder Cabion. So, with so many absences in the defenses of both teams, and with both of them needing the points, I am again going for goals. GL!

over 2.75 goals @ 1.93, 3/10

Result: 0-2, LOST

Santiago Morning - Huachipato

Chile Primera Division

These two teams aren't traditional goal scoring teams, but now, with only 2 rounds left in the league, they both need to win, as only 3 points today will keep their hopes alive. The guests, Huachipato, are hopeful of a late snatch of a place that allows them to play the Liguilla that sends a team to Copa Libertadores, and a win today will practically seal their spot in the Liguilla. Because of that, and also due to a couple of suspensions (midfielders Jose Perez and Garcia), the coach will change his formation to a 4-3-3, an offensive plan, trying to press early, and clinch the important victory. Santiago Morning, however, will also try to make their game. For them, 3 points today are even more vital than for Huachipato, as they will be 100% safe from relegating directly, and will also have a very good chance to avoid the play-offs. Hopeful that this will be their last home game (meaning they won't be playing any play-offs), Morning's players think only of the win, and will also field an offensive team, with 2 strikers, backed-up by 3 offensive midfielders. With both teams in need of points, and both planning to attack from the start, I'll give them credit, and go for a goals bet here. GL!

over 2.5 goals @ 1.82, 4/10

Result: 0-3, WON

Quilmes - All Boys

Argentina Primera Division, Apertura

Quilmes could (and should) be leaving the last place of the Apertura, and could also do a step forward in their desperate tries to avoid direct relegation - not very big chances for that, but Gimnasia look even more awfull, so you never know. Today, they are finally able to return on El Centenario, after a few matches played on neutral ground, due to some problems with the supporters. And besides the return to their home ground, and their good recent form (4 points in the last 2 matches), they wil also be receiving an All Boys team filled with injury worries. The surprise package of the Apertura is coming into this match with 4-5 injuries, almost all of them being first team players. The most important one will be the absence of striker Ereros, which, combined with Fabbiani's absence, triggered the change of the tactical formation to a 4-4-2, trying to get more defensive stability, since there will be some diminished firepower up front. Quilmes is in a big need of points, and I'm expecting them to take control of the game, and push for the goal early on. However, All Boys proved several times they are very solid and stable in the back, and with the new formation, they shouldbe extra-careful. Add to that Quilmes looks awful in offence, and lack too much creativity, the under bet looks pretty good here. GL!

under 2.25 goals @ 1.75, 4/10

Result: 2-1, LOST

Espoli - Olmedo

Ecuador Primera Division, Segunda Etapa

My first thought for this round was to go for Universidad Catolica, but odds dropping like crazy there and Emelec only with a mixed squad (not alternative), making that match completely without any value. But for this game, despite the odds being much lower, it also looks more achievable. Espoli is one of the 3 teams that are involved in the relegation, and besides having the highest chances of saving themselves from dropping into Serie B, they also have the easiest fixture of this last round. Macara has a tough travel to El Nacional, Catolica plays at home against a 'mixed' Emelec, while Espoli are going at home against Olmedo, a team just as poor as they are, but a team that is safe, without an objective, waiting for the holiday period. Both teams will be with full squads, but as I said, I question Olmedo's players level of committment and interest in this game. Espoli is preparing a formation with 5 midfielders, so as to dominate the midfield and get the ball back quickly if they lose it, going fast in attack. A draw should be enough here for 'The Police' team, but only if Catolica doesn't win. And since everybody knows it's risky business to wait for another result when you can solve the problem yourself, I'm confident Espoli will go for the win today. GL!

Espoli (-0.5 AH) @ 1.78, 4/10

Result: 3-0, WON

LDU Quito - Deportivo Quito

Ecuador Primera Division, Segunda Etapa

This is a logical follow-up bet to the one from yesterday. As expected, LDU won comfortably against El Nacional, and are 99% in the final of the championship (the only way for them to miss it is to lose their 2 remaining matches by at least 3 goals, while Emelec should win their matches by at least 3 goals... sounds a bit fantasy). And, since LDU played yesterday with most of their regulars (only Barcos was unfit, while Guagua was suspended), I see it as impossible that even one of the regulars will play today as well, keeping in mind that on Thursday they will play a decisive game against Independiente, leaving for Argentina today, as soon as the match against Deportivo ends. So, they can afford to lose both hames left in the league, as long as they keep the difference at a minimum, and with the alternative line-up that Bauza will probably field, I don't give them much chances (doubt that even the reserves will play, as they also need them for the Sudamericana match). Deportivo is sure they will be playing the play-off for the last Libertadores spot, but the 3rd place is in their sight, as it will allow them to finish the play-off series playing at home, and that could be a nice advantage. And a win today will make them out of Barcelona's reach. They will miss a couple of players, most notably 'Zlatan' Fernandez, but overall, they should have a better squad than Liga's 3rd string team. And since this is also a derby of Quito, I expect them to want to win the match. GL!

Deportivo Quito @ 2.30, 4/10

Result: 1-1, LOST

LDU Quito - El Nacional

Ecuador Primera Division, Segunda Etapa

Liga de Quito are having one of the toughest weeks in their history, as they will have to play no less than 4 matches in 7 days, matches that will define their future. They will play today and tomorrow in the league, Thursday is Sudamericana and Sunday again in the league.And with 3 points clear of Emelec, a win today will put them 6 points ahead, but thanks to the superior goal difference, they will secure their final berth. So the list of priorities is simple: play for the win today - getting into the final, play with reserves tomorrow so the regulars will be fit for the Sudamericana clash, than give them another rest in the last round of the championship. Today is El Nacional, tomorrow Deportivo Quito, so it's obvious the regulars will go for the weaker opponent in the earlier match. No final line-up has been made public, but coach Bauza said he'll go for it with the best available players. There are of course some doubtful players (Barcos, Luna, Salgueiro, Calderon, Reasco and de la Cruz), and if they're not at 100%, they won't be risked, but I'm pretty sure at least half of them will start tonight's game. And with El Nacional safe, without an objective, they shouldn't waste too much time, and I'm expecting an early lead. GL!

LDU (-0.75 AH) @ 1.70, 4/10

Result: 3-1, WON

Alianza Lima - Total Chalaco

Peru Primera Division, Liguilla A

Another capital match for both of them. Alianza is going for the Libertadores ticket, having Universitario breathing down on the back of their necks, while Chalaco is playing their last hopes of remaining in the division for 2011. However, Chalaco's hopes should begin fading, as realistically speaking, they can only fight for the 3 points against Inti Gas in the last round. Don't see how they will be able to snatch some points here, or next round at San Martin. Adding to that, Chalaco's financial troubles are still of actuality, and even this week there have been protests from the players, threatening the directors, and missing a few training sessions, being on strike. Morale is low, money is scarce, relegation looks like a certain thing, so probably, deep inside, the players have already surrendered. Meanwhile, Alianza should give their best, and make the most of this match, as it will put them 5 points clear of Universitario, and it will give them some fresh air before the last 2 rounds, which could turn to be very difficult for them (at Inti Gas and hosting San Martin in the last round). And after two good results, the 2-2 draw with Universitario and the 1-0 win at Cristal, morale should also be at the top. GL!

Alianza Lima (-1.25 AH) @ 1.96, 4/10

Result: 2-1, HALF LOST

Gimnasia - Velez

Argentina Primera Division, Apertura

Estudiantes and Velez are simply a class better than the rest mug-teams from Argentina, so it should come as no surprise that they are dominating almost all the tables (Apertura, Libertadores aggregate, relegation aggregate). It looks like the battle for the title is going all the way, and since Estudiantes won easily yesterday (despite being soundly dominated in the last 10 minutes, barely touching the ball), Velez are also in a must-win situation. And they will most likely win today, as I don't think Gimnasia has enough quality to keep the pace with Velez for 90 minutes. And here comes another tricky thing. Estudiantes are Gimnasia's bitter rivals, so with a Velez win, they will keep the pressure on El Leon. I'm sure there are many Gimnasia fans and players that would love to give Velez a helping hand. And if Gimnasia's situation wouldn't be so dramatic (they are deep inside the relegation play-off zone), I would take that thing as certain. But since they are also in desperate need of points, I have my doubts about them helping Velez. Even so, Velez has much more skills and class to win this the fair way, and their are rightly favorites here. GL!

Velez (-0.75 AH) @ 1.84, 3/10

Result: 0-0, LOST

Alianza Atletico - Juan Aurich

Peru Primera Division, Liguilla B

Pretty bad day, regarding the available matches, as I can't say I'm crazy about any of them. I'll try to make the most of what I get, though. In recent matches, we have seen a lot of improvements from Alianza Atletico's behalf, and despite managing to lose just two matches in the last 10, they still haven't managed to get out of the relegation zone, and it looks like the fight will go down until the last round, in a final showdown with Cienciano in Cusco. However, if they manage to win today, they could have the higher ground in the supposed final, or they could even be safe before that, as next week they host Huancayo, while Cienciano has a pretty much impossible mission at Juan Aurich. So plenty to play for here, players and staff are characterizing the game as a final, so expect 100% commitment from the entire squad. Juan Aurich has nothing to play for, despite still having some mathematical chances to reach the final, but that is almost impossible, as Leon needs just one point to seal the qualification. And with the qualification for Sudamericana already in their pockets, there won't be any need for the players to bruise their knees. Juan Aurich won't have it easy here, as they never do, failing to win in all their visits to Sullana so far, in 5 tries. The funny thing is that neither Alianza won a single match when hosting Juan Aurich. However, they have the knife at the bone now, and that 3-1 win for them in Chiclayo a month ago is sure to give them some hopes, and I'm expecting them to perform at 200% of what they are capable. GL!

Alianza Atletico (-0.5 AH) @ 2.04, 3/10

Result: 1-0, WON

Estudiantes - Huracan

Argentina Primera Division, Apertura

Estudiantes got a cold shower last week, after losing at Tigre, and also losing the first place in the Apertura, being overtaken by Velez, with the same number of points, but better goal difference. So, with 5 games left, Estudiantes can't afford to take any more wrong turns, if they want to avoid the previous season's disaster, losing the Clausura in the last round. Defender Desabato won't be taking part in this match, but despite that, there are overall good news for Estudiantes, as they welcome back defender Roncaglia and goalkeeper Orion. Otherwise, no problems for them, as they have fit all the players, and the offensive trio will be the usual one: Enzo Perez, Gaston Fernandez and Hoyos, with Veron and Brana close by. It's worth mentioning that Estudiantes has only victories at home, 6 on a string in this Apertura, and haven't conceded a single goal yet, while Huracan are having problems when playing away from home, losing by a pretty large difference to Olimpo, Boca, Racing or Gimnasia, teams that are all in the wrong side of the table. The handicap is a bit high, and I don't really like playing more than -1 on anyone from Argentina, but with their form, and with Estudiantes' hunger for points, I think we can expect a relaxing 2-0 here, maybe even a 3-0. GL!

Estudiantes (-1.25 AH) @ 1.80, 4/10

Result: 2-0, WON

Jose Galvez - Universitario

Peru Primera Division, Liguilla A

Both teams are still having to fight for, that is why I'm expecting a committed performance from all of the players. Universitario are 5 points behind Alianza, with 3 matches left, and they aren't giving up hope to catch their bitter rivals. They can be encouraged by Alianza's tougher schedule, as they will have to travel next week to Inti Gas, where it will be a difficult visit, before finishing the Liguilla at home, against San Martin. So, Alianza with some tough games remaining are almost sure of losing some points, a thing which Universitario could speculate to put some more pressure on Los Intimos. Meanwhile, Jose Galvez are fighting to avoid relegation, and should have all their regulars fit, as they chose to rest them in their previous match, the visit at Inti Gas that ended in a 0-6 trashing. They are considering this match to be the most important of the season, and indeed, with a win today, they will have very high chances to remain in Primera next year. They will do everything in their power to win the match, so I'm expecting a good game, with both teams going for the win and for the goals. Every outcome is possible, and since I'm expecting both teams to score, the over looks like a good option to bet on. GL!

over 2.5 goals @ 2.06, 3/10

Result: 0-1, LOST

LDU Quito - Independiente

Copa Sudamericana

This bet was probably expected and predictable, but if there is one team that I fully trust at home in South America, than that team is definitely Liga de Quito. Won't start talking too much about them, as we all know the drill: very solid team, plays like a monster at home, big advantage in the high altitude, reigning champ of Sudamericana and Recopa. There are a few players doubtful for them, but all of them are having very big chances of being match-fit, so I'm pretty sure we'll be seeing them fielding their best line-up. Independiente's attitude has changed ever since El Turco Mohamed took over the team, but that surely won't be enough for them to take points in Ecuador. And if we compare them to Newell's, they are in an inferior position. Newell's are a very solid and compact team, and can strike deadly on the counter attack. But their biggest strength is their defensive discipline. A thing that Independiente lacks, as they can be opened much easier by a rampant LDU team. And despite their good result at Tolima (2-2), they had a much more complicated match in the return-leg, as the Colombians put a lot of pressure on them. The same thing will probably happen in Quito too, but LDU are obviously a class better than Deportes Tolima, and as I already said, the high altitude will prove to be an even bigger problem for Independiente. I'm expecting more than the 1-0 win recorded against Newell's last week. GL!

LDU (-1 AH) @ 1.86, 5/10

Result: 3-2, VOID

South Africa - USA

International Friendly Match

This match is quickly becoming a public bet, and odds will surely drop some more before the kick-off. The USA are sending over a very weak and inexperienced squad, as from the 18-man team that will travel to Africa, only 9 players have more than 23 years, and only 5 of them have played more than 10 matches for the national team. Coach Bradley already said that he wants to use this match as a practice, in order to test some new players, and even though probably they will put in a good effort, they just lack the depth and experience to make some problems here. The Africans have called upon a much more serious squad, and we can see some big names in their rooster: Pienaar, Gaxa, Parker, etc. Definitely not some world class players, but certainly more than enough for the young American team. I'm also expecting more commitment from the hosts, so a small bet on them should surely be tried. Small stakes however, as this is still just a friendly match. GL!

South Africa (-0.25 AH) @ 1.96, 3/10

Result: 0-1, LOST

Independiente - Olimpo

Argentina Primera Division, Apertura

I going to keep going with the trend here, as I think another under is on the cards. Independiente will use a second team, in order to keep their regulars fresh between the 2 Sudamericana matches, as this week they played at home against Tolima, while next week they will have to make a journey to the height of Quito. So, the only sensible thing to do here is to rest all the players they can, since they have stated loud and clear that the Apertura doesn't interest them, and all their guns are pointed towards Copa Sudamericana, which leads to next year's Libertadores. Only the regular goalkeeper will be used, and that's a big plus for them, as he comes after some nice performances. Even with a second squad, I'm pretty confident they won't lose, as Olimpo simply lacks any value and class to remain in Primera, and to win away at some of the league's bigger names. They lack ideas and finishing, and also their defensive line is pretty much clueless. But Independiente with this line-up can't hope for too much either, as in the previous games where they used reserves (at All Boys and San Lorenzo), they pretty much lacked any depth in offense, despite scoring in both matches (against Boys they scored after a free-kick, while against San Lorenzo the goal came after a huge fault in attack). They will still control this match, and will probably manage to win it in the end, but can't see them past a 1-0, because it will be hard to break the crowded defense that Olimpo will probably field. GL!

under 2 goals @ 2.12, 3/10

Result: 1-1, VOID

Leon de Huanuco - Alianza Atletico

Peru Primera Division, Liguilla B

I have decided previously not to play on Leon anymore, when they are at home, due to the huge handicap lines and the laughable odds. But today something is different, and I can't explain why the line is just at -1, and with average odds around 1.90. Today's opponents, Alianza Atletico, are indeed in desperate need of points, but so was Cienciano last match, and Leon gave them no gifts, despite the match finishing 0-0. Leon dominated the entire match, put constant pressure on their defense, and missed some huge opportunities. But I don't think they will do that 2 times in a row, and besides, while Cienciano wasn't affected by the high altitude of Huanuco, Alianza's player should feel it fully. Leon will miss two players due to suspensions, but their key players are all fit and ready to play (here I am talking about the guys who have a huge merit for Leon's position: Rodas and Perea). And even with a loss today, corroborated with a Cienciano win, Alianza shouldn't despair (despite dropping to a place that relegates), because they should get more if they focus on their last 3 games (two of them consecutive at home against unmotivated Juan Aurich and Sport Huancayo, and the decider from Cienciano). Leon seals their play-off place if they win today, or if Cesar Vallejo loses, so I'm sure they'll go for the win. Small-medium stakes though, as Cesar Vallejo finishes the match before they start, and if they lose Leon could celebrate a bit too much. GL!

Leon (-1 AH) @ 1.90, 4/10

Result: 3-1, WON

Deportivo Cuenca - Macara

Ecuador Primera Division, Segunda Fase

Deportivo Cuenca is playing the cards that has left, as they aim either for a 3rd place in the aggregate standings, either for a 1st place finish in the Second Phase, allowing them to fight for the title with Emelec. But either way, with a win today they will be in a win-win situation, as their direct rivals in the tables, Barcelona in the aggregate and LDU in the Second Phase, are facing each other. So, assuming Cuenca gets the 3 points against Macara, they will either move to 1 point of LDU for the final, either tie Barcelona on points for the 3rd spot in the general. As, I said, they can only win after this round. They are also in a small slump of form, as they have 2 consecutive lost matches, the only ones in their last 10, so they need to snap out of it as soon as possible, if they are to hold some realistic chances of qualifying to Libertadores. And today's opponent should suit them perfectly. Macara are last in the general standings, 5 points behind the first team above the red line, and with only 3 games remaining, it appears they have taken a bow and given up the fight. That is why their coach has decided to test some youngsters for the next season, and took some players from the youth team, 2 defenders (19 and 20 years), and 2 midfielders (18 and 19 years). That also shows some lack of ambition for the remaining matches, so I guess an easy win for Cuenca should be expected here. GL!

Deportivo Cuenca (-1.25 AH) @ 2.02, 3/10

Result: 0-2, LOST

Sport Boys - Sport Huancayo

Peru Primera Division, Liguilla B

Sport Boys lost some easy points last round, at home against Alianza Atletico, conceding the equalizer in the last seconds of play, the last action. So now they need to get them back, and end their relegation issues once and for all. Three points today and they will at least keep the 7 points difference ahead of Cienciano, and with only 3 rounds remaining after this weekend, they will be as good as saved. Last match wasn't a bad one at all for them, as besides those 2 goals scored they also missed a couple of easy chances, and I'm expecting some better concentration and composure in front of the goal today. The coach already said this match has to be won, practiced some finishing moves in training and tried to get his players in focus. Huancayo is fighting for nothing, despite still having some mathematical chances of reaching a place for next year's Copa Sudamericana... their realistic chances are below 1%. So, an unmotivated team, with the dreadful away form, where they only managed to win a single game, should be a sure victim here against a pretty much equal team, that is fighting to avoid relegation. Head-to-head this season is 2-1 for Boys, winning one in Huancayo's altitude, and recording another easy 3-1 home win. I'm expecting something similar today. GL!

Sport Boys (-0.75 AH) @ 1.75, 4/10

Result: 0-2, LOST

Inti Gas - Jose Galvez

Peru Primera Division, Liguilla A

This should be the bet of the day, and I'm giving it huge confidence. Inti Gas, as we all know, is one of the best home teams. They have a pretty good squad, but the altitude of Ayacucho also helps them a lot. They have indeed lost a total of 5 matches at home, but most of them were against the better teams of the league (San Martin, Cesar Vallejo, Leon Huanuco). They are still having mathematical chances to catch a place for Copa Sudamericana, but seriously, they have as much chances as Huancayo, and that's practically nil. But I expect them to fight for a win here, as they should look for redemption, after the flop from last match, when they lost at home against Sporting Cristal. But the good stuff from this match comes from Jose Galvez. They are in some serious trouble with relegation, and they are saving almost all of their regulars for their next home game, against Universitario. They have never won when playing at Inti Gas, and keeping a realistic view on the situation, they know a full strength team will most probably lose again, and will also suffer a lot physically from the altitude. So, a number of 9 players have been given some days off following their last match, and will only report to training on Sunday. That leaves a few reserves for today's game, while the rest of the squad will be filled with youngsters. Doubt they will handle the pressure and the thick air, so I'm expecting the hosts to win quite comfortably. GL!

Inti Gas (-1 AH) @ 1.68, 6/10

Result: 6-0, WON

LDU Quito - Newell's Old Boys

Copa Sudamericana

I've waited for the -1 lines for these two matches, as I strongly believe both Sudamericana matches from Wednesday will be clear and easy home wins. Let's take a look at the match-up from Ecuador first. LDU has an awesome record when playing at home in continental competitions, and haven't lost a game played in Casablanca in ages. The high altitude provides them with a huge advantage, but they are also a great team, and it's purely their merit for making legendary results in Quito (just a reminder that in the last 3-4 years they have won Copa Libertadores, Copa Sudamericana and 2 consecutive Recopas). And the team news are also going well. Following their game against Deportivo Cuenca from Saturday, where they used all their regulars as it was a crucial match for the title, there were 5 doubtful players for this match. But their recovery is going well, and it looks like the only that is likely to miss the game will be midfielder Patricio Urrutia, while top scorer Barcos is 90% certain of starting against the Argentinians. Otherwise, no other absences, and they will once again use their best team. Newell's isn't a bad team at all. Actually they are one of the best organized Argentinian teams, and I feel they would have deserved more from that first leg, instead of the 0-0. Their players should be fit for this game, as against Godoy Cruz in the league they fielded a second team, but altitude should be their biggest opponent today. Argentinian and Brazilian teams suffer the most when playing at altitude, as they never do it in their leagues (unlike Peruvians, Colombians, etc), and if we look at Newell's record at high altitude in the last 5 years, they are 0-0-3 (0-2 against San Jose this year - although they played with reserves, 1-2 at Emelec this year in Libertadores, and 2-3 at The Strongest in the 2006 Libertadores). Don't know how easy will the match be for LDU, but Newell's should rely only on defense, as they need an away goal, and LDU love the teams that attack them in Quito. GL!

LDU (-1 AH) @ 2.03, 4/10

Result: 1-0, VOID

Palmeiras - Atletico Mineiro

Copa Sudamericana

Odds have gone down on this one, so there isn't probably any value left, but this bet still looks good and very likely to happen. Palmeiras wants this Cup, as it could be their easiest way to next year's Copa Libertadores, since in the league they are 5 points behind the last place that qualifies them, and they appear to sacrifice that, since they used a reserves team last weekend, and have still managed to win the game. So, all the regulars should be fit tonight, a thing that can't be said about Atletico Mineiro. They have much bigger problems, as the fight to avoid relegation will go all the way to the wire. And their priority is of course the league, where they are playing full strength, unlike in the Copa Sudamericana, where for this match they will rest all of their regulars, and play with a fully B squad. That surely gives Palmeiras a huge advantage, but there is also another interesting theory here. Next week, this match will see a repeat, but this time in the league, and since Mineiro is practically gifting the win in Sudamericana, Palmeiras could have the chance to return the favor, and gift them some vital points in the relegation battle. In the last 3 meetings that were played in Sao Paulo, Palmeiras won 2 with the same score of 3-1, and even if Mineiro field reserves tonight, I doubt we'll see a trashing. 2-0 score looks the most probable, so I'm expecting an easy cover of the handicap. GL!

Palmeiras (-1 AH) @ 1.80, 4/10

Result: 2-0, WON

Sport Boys - Alianza Atletico

Peru Primera Division, Liguilla B

Just 5 more rounds before this league reaches it's final, and usually, this is the time when surprises start appearing. So let's try to take advantage by some of the odds the bookies wrongly set (at least in my opinion). Sport Boys are heavy favorites, and in some bookies there has been a massive odds fall on them (1.78 to 1.62). But the interesting fact here is that in the last 3 years, they have never won against Alianza Atletico, from 11 matches, and they have been set as huge favorites just once (first match in 2008)... otherwise, odds were usually around 2, so this give us an automatic value on Alianza. Especially since the visitors are the team in need. They are just 1 point ahead of the relegation area, and are in desperate need of points. Meanwhile, Sport Boys aren't assured of avoiding relegation, but they have a much easier task, as they are 7 points ahead of Cienciano, who play at Leon de Huanuco, so it's not likely they will cut the lead. And Boys, in case of things heating up, can easily solve their last 2 home matches, against an unmotivated Sport Huancayo, and in the last round, against a Leon side that should be qualified to the final and should also rest their regulars. Both teams are in good form (15 points in the last 10 matches for each of them), and with no important absences, so I'm going with the team that has the head-to-head advantage, and also has more need for points. GL!

Alianza Atletico (+0.5 AH) @ 2.12, 3/10

Result: 2-2, WON

FBC Melgar - Sport Huancayo

Peru Primera Division, Liguilla B

I'm surprised to see such high odds on this match, especially with Huancayo's famous poor results out of their home stadium. Indeed, Melgar won't find an ally in the high altitude, as both these teams are playing 'high', but home advantage should still be present. Huancayo won a single match on the road, and even when playing against other teams at altitdude, they still had problems (won 3-0 at Cienciano - but when they were in the deepest point of their crisis... otherwise, they lost early in the championship at the same Cienciano, drew at Melgar, lost at Inti Gas, and lost twice with Leon). I rate these teams as quite on the same level, and as a proof we can see that in their 7 games played since last year, neither team has won as a visitor, just the 1-1 draw at Melgar earlier this season. Besides that, Melgar should also be the more motivated side, as they are still threatened a bit by the relegation, and a win today will 99% save them, while Huancayo is already clear of any worries. The -0.25 handicap is a must try in my opinion, as the odds don't really reflect Huancayo's abilities when it comes to away games. GL!

FBC Melgar (-0.25 AH) @ 1.80, 3/10

Result: 2-0, WON

All Boys - River Plate

Argentina Primera Division, Apertura

I just couldn't believe my eyes when I saw the odds, and I just can't understand why River is a favorite here (probably because people are betting, and odds are set in favor of the big name). Even saw, I waited until the last minute to take the bet, as I was waiting for some last minute news on All Boys's line-up, as they had 5 regulars doubtful. And the news are pretty good, as 3 of those 5 have been recovered and should start, leaving only midfielder Perea and striker Ereros out of the game. The absence of Ereros could be the tricky part here, as in his place, Fabbiani will play, and he's pretty much awful. But I have faith in his team-mates, and if they play like they usually do on home ground, I don't give River much chances. All Boys are really playing well at home, defeating some huge names from Argentina, like Boca, Estudiantes or Independiente, and besides the wins, what really surprised me was the way they are playing, always looking for the goal, and avoiding the 'defend at all costs' strategy, that the small teams usually employ. River, on the other hand, are still in the relegation play-off area, and look totally out of form. Despite their big names (Pavone, Buonanotte, Funes Mori, etc), they just can't seem to get it right, and are on a streak of 6 games without a win. They have a lot of troubles in scoring, despite being able to create a lot of chances, and if they let their opponents to put pressure on them, it usually turns into a conceded goal. The DNB looks great, same as the over 2 line, as I expect an open game, with All Boys as the most probable winner. GL!

All Boys DNB @ 2, 3/10

Result: 1-0, WON

Sport Huancayo - Universidad Cesar Vallejo

Peru Primera Division, Liguilla B

Again, crazy odds here. Cesar Vallejo might be in bad form lately, but to give them odds of 6-7 for a win against a mediocre team is just crazy. First plus that should be for UCV in relation to their previous games, is the fact that they now have a new coach, so I think we can count on a 'new coach' effect. After that, we can see that they still have something to play for. Even though the final is far away, despite Leon losing yesterday, UCV are in the best position to catch Alianza Lima for the last spot for Libertadores, as they could close the gap to just 3 points if they win and Alianza loses. Huancayo has nothing to play for, as they have no relegation issues, and no hopes for a continental competition, so they'll just play the remaining matches for fun. Of course, that could be an advantage for them, as they'll be playing without pressure. So, for sure, their only big advantage will be the altitude, but Cesar Vallejo is a team that doesn't usually suffer when playing at heights, and can perform there better than other teams. Both teams should have pretty much their strongest team available (new UCV coach doesn't seem to want to rotate or replace some players), so it should be an equal match. In this case, the odds on Huancayo are a big joke, and I'll gladly take the generous handicap on Cesar Vallejo. GL!

UCV (+1 AH) @ 1.92, 4/10

Result: 1-0, VOID

San Lorenzo - Independiente

Argentina Primera Division, Apertura

Independiente is the other Argentinian team that performs in the Copa Sudamericana, and we can see the consequence in the league. They have been awful so far in the league, finding themselves 3rd from bottom, but ever since coach Mohamed came to the club, there have been some visible improvements. However, away from home they have only managed to snatch one draw in 6 games, the other 5 matches ending in defeats. The big news is that after some thinking, the team will go with the B squad against San Lorenzo. Mohamed was determined to rest a few regulars, but also to field a decent team against El Ciclon, but it looks like he changed his mind overnight, and he will rest most of his regulars for the second leg against Deportes Tolima (who will also rest their regulars tonight). Sudamericana is a must for Independiente this season, as it is their only hope for playing in Libertadores next season. With this information, the odds on San Lorenzo become value, despite falling a bit in the last 2 days. El Ciclon isn't in the best form, and this should be a great opportunity for them to get back to winning ways. They will also change their defensive line from 3 defenders to 4, due to a couple of injuries, and that should give them more stability. A few changes are also expected in offense, as lately the strikers are seeming incapable of scoring, despite creating a lot of chances, but I have faith in the ability of those who will start tomorrow (most probably Menseguez and Rovira). GL!

San Lorenzo (-0.5 AH) @ 1.77, 5/10

Result: 1-1, LOST

Racing Club - Arsenal Sarandi

Argentina Primera Division, Apertura

Pretty high odds for the over in my opinion, in a match between 2 teams that are not goal-shy. Especially when playing at home, Racing does it very well, and scores quite a lot for this league, and has already scored 12 goals in 6 games, most of them thanks to offensive midfielder Moreno, who is in exceptional form. And in front of him will play today Hauche and Bieler, players that are always capable of scoring, and especially Hauche seems also in quite a nice form. Racing is gunning for a Libertadores ticket, and they need to gun it hard, so anything else than a victory is not an option here. Meanwhile, Arsenal are the surprise package of this Apertura, and are looking to remain at the leaders' back, as with 3 points today they will move back to 4 points behind Estudiantes, and if things go ideal for them, we could see a showdown for the title in the last round, when they play in La Plata. But I seriously doubt they'll be able to keep it up until then. Striker Leguizamon is also in good form, and if there are some opportunities for him, I'm sure they'll make them count. The 2 goals line for this match seems like an underestimation of the game, and I'll gladly take it, as I don't expect anything below a minimum of 2 goals. GL!

over 2 goals @ 1.79, 4/10

Result: 2-2, WON

Godoy Cruz - Newell's Old Boys

Argentina Primera Division, Apertura

Newell's played a pretty good match this mid-week at home, against LDU Quito in Copa Sudamericana, but luck wasn't on their side, and they eventually had to settle for a 0-0 draw. But this result serves them as much as a defeat, as it is well known LDU's home strength, at the high altitude of Quito. So, coach Sensini has decided to give a rest to most of his players, in order for them to be fit for the grueling duel in Ecuador. Schiavi is suspended for this match anyway, while 8 other players will be rested (Alayes, Mateo, Bernardi, Borghello, Fideleff, Estigarribia, Formica and Sperdutti), leaving them to play with a team of reserves and fringe players. Godoy are still having a chance to catch the leaders Estudiantes, and will probably relish the opportunity to easily beat a usually solid team like Newell's. They won't have any absences, and they are very likely to field their base team, their strongest line-up. A victory for Godoy will also cement their qualification to Copa Libertadores (which looks good anyway, since they are 2nd in the Average points table). Odds are still take-able, and this looks like a solid bet. GL!

Godoy Cruz (-0.5 AH) @ 1.75, 5/10

Result: 0-0, LOST

Cienciano - Sport Boys

Peru Primera Division, Liguilla B

Lately, I have noticed some improvements in Cienciano. 2 weeks ago they have finally won a match after several winless rounds, when they beat Juan Aurich at home by 3-0, and their last 2 defeats were quite at the limit, giving both Alianza Atletico and Melgar a good fight (and keep in mind the fact that they were in strike, and also that the matches were played with just 2 days of rest, in opposite places of the country). They have also received payment for a month (still 3 left to be payed), so things are looking slightly better now, and they are focused on avoiding the drop. Sport Boys will miss 2 important pieces, some of their most important players: midfielder Michael Guevara and defender/captain Mario Gomez. So, in order to exploit this key absences, coach Ibarra will prepare an offensive line-up, trying to suffocate Boys from the start (and the altitude should also help them here, as Sport Boys are from port-city Callao). One more statistical thing worth mentioning is that since 2000, Sport Boys have played in Cuzco 19 times, and have never won, barely managing 4 draws, while most of those 15 loses have been quite drastic. Cienciano has the knife near their bones, so it's now or never for them, and it would be a shame to see them relegate. GL!

Cienciano (-0.5 AH) @ 1.74, 3/10

Result: 2-1, WON

Universitario - Inti Gas

Peru Primera Division, Liguilla A

I'm going for the quality and the motivation here. No need to speak about the obvious advantage in quality for Universitario, but it should be worth to analyze the motivational factors. Universitario are 4th in the aggregate table, and are almost sure of their qualification to Copa Sudamericana, but of course they are gunning for more. 6 points is the gap between them and 3rd placed Alianza, but anything could still happen in the last 6 rounds, and the schedule seems to favor Universitario a bit, as they have to play Sporting Cristal and Univ San Martin at home, only the derby against Alianza being a tricky away game, while Alianza have some very difficult travels, at Cristal and Inti Gas. So the season isn't over yet for Universitario. On the other hand, Inti Gas are practically playing just for fun. They are safe from relegation, and with very very slim chances to hope for Sudamericana, as it's hard to believe they will the 11 points that separate them from Juan Aurich.And with their dreadful away form, it's impossible. They only have one win on the road, that dates back to February, and surprisingly, they have won on the very same stadium where they will play tonight, against Universitario. Although the Cremas were in the middle of their Copa Libertadores campaign, and were mixing up their squad a bit, so that should minimize a bit Inti Gas's merits. No important team news (U will make probably some changes, but none of them is forced), so as I said, quality and motivation should prevail. GL!

Universitario (-1 AH) @ 1.70, 4/10

Result: 1-1, LOST

Total Chalaco - Universitario

Peru Primera Division, Liguilla A

Surprised to see odds of over 2.20 on Universitario. Despite both teams having something to fight for, and both expected to show a lot of determination tonight, class difference is huge in Universitario's favor. Chalaco is last in the aggregate table, which leads to a direct relegation, and despite being only 6 points behind the safe zone, I really doubt they'll pull a miracle and save themselves. They are just playing plain poorly, not improving at all, and losing constantly, having lost an impressive 7 matches from the last 10, including a 1-5 trashing at home against San Martin. Universitario is also in a must-win situation, as they renewed their chances for Libertadores this week, after winning against CNI, and they are now just 4 points behind Alianza. Piero Alva returns to the first team (he had a last minute problem before the midweeks game), so that should also boost a bit their offense. One more interesting thing here is that Chalaco have never beaten Universitario, and in 5 visits to the Miguel Grau stadium, the Cremas have won 4 times, adding another 1-1 draw last year. Good odds for this one, but I'll go for a -0.25, which still has good odds, as Chalaco's recent 1-1 draw with Alianza is putting me off a bit. GL!

Universitario (-0.25 AH) @ 2.10, 3/10

Result: 0-0, HALF LOST

FBC Melgar - Cienciano

Peru Primera Division, Liguilla B

No matter how I look at this match, I can't see beyond a clear and solid victory for the home side. Cienciano came very close of being the first team relegated yesterday, when the players threatened the chairman with not traveling to Arequipa, which would have resulted in a second walk-over and in direct relegation. But the debts have been played, and the match is finally going to be played. Just that there is one more problem here: chairman Silva wanted the team to travel by bus, and all the players have refused, since they played just 2 days ago in Piura, and Arequipa is on the other side of the country, so even the players are saying that if they travel by bus, they will be trashed. But despite their protest, without any funds for plane transportation, they had to settle for the bus, leaving from Lima yesterday late in the evening. I expect them to attack tonight, as if they lose here, they will most probably relegate anyway, but with the state of fatigue they are having, I can see Melgar putting a few goals past them. Melgar should be in full force, and striker Meza Cuadra is back in the starting line-up. They are on a safe position for the moment, but a win here will see them 11 points clear, and will be as good as sealing their place in the First League for next season. Low odds for the current line, so I'm going to lower the stakes a bit, and go for the over, as I expect at least 3 goals here. GL!

over 2.5 goals @ 1.95, 3/10

Result: 2-1, WON

Universitario - CNI

Peru Primera Division, Liguilla A

This could be one of Universitario's last chances to close the gap on Alianza, and still hope for the last place that sends them to Copa Libertadores. Alianza plays at San Martin, so they could be in for some points loss, therefore U could get 4 points behind their arch-rivals, and a showdown will likely take place in 2 weeks, when they face each other again. So this is by all means a must-win game for the Cremas, because if they lose points, they could even find themselves out of the Sudamericana race. That is why they will repeat the formation that took the field against Jose Galvez, a very offensive 3-4-3, with 4 attacking players: Alva, Gigena, Labarthe and Ruidiaz, so I expect a lot of goals from then, and they could decide the match (and this bet) by themselves. Against Jose Galvez they won 3-1, but there were at least twice as many chances missed. CNI lost their last home game, but once again, they didn't play bad at all, creating some good chances, but missing once again some quality finishing. Don't expect too much attacking from them, but their defense is quite awful, and should be an easu job for U's forwards. They are also as good as saved from relegation, and with no chances for Sudamericana, they should just try to play some nice football for their remaining matches. GL!

over 2.5 goals @ 1.70, 3/10

Result: 2-1, WON

Leon de Huanuco - Sport Boys

Peru Primera Division, Liguilla B

I know the odds are piss-poor for this one, but I see it as close to a banker as it can get, so I'll gladly take for medium-high stakes. These two teams have been totally opposed throughout the season: Leon have been surprisingly fighting for the title, and at the moment they lead group B by 5 points, and with a win they could go 8 points clear (because Cesar Vallejo plays in Arequipa, and there is a good chance they will lose some points there). No important injuries for Leon... Rodas, Calheira and Perea will all start, they are the awesome offensive power of Leon, and they will settle the match between them. Sport Boys have indeed been surprising lately, as they have 3 wins on the run, and ever since Liguilla started they are the most in-form team. But their wins came against lowly teams, the only big one they've defeated being Cesar Vallejo, but that was in Callao, and that's another story. Away from home, Sport Boys have only one win, and around 3 goals conceded per match. Today they will miss forwards Victor Rossel, so it will be a blow for their offensive powers. All in all, I just can't see Leon losing points here, so even if the odds are pretty much crap, this bet is a solid one. GL!

Leon (-1 AH) @ 1.61, 5/10

Result: 4-0, WON

CNI - Jose Galvez

Peru Primera Division, Liguilla A

Nice odds for this match. CNI isn't as bad as the odds or their league position suggests, as they usually play nice football, but they are either unlucky, or they miss quality finishing. But they can put quite some pressure on their opponents, especially when playing at home, and weaker teams usually choke when playing against them. A win today will almost surely seal their ticket for the first league for 2011, and they should also receive a boost as they welcome back their main offensive players, Barrena and Vergara. Last week they lost rather unfairly at Sporting Cristal, after a late penalty, but a draw would have been maybe more correct. But now they are motivated to get back the lost points. Jose Galvez are in deeper and deeper problems. They haven't trained for days before the Universitario game, as a protest for not being payed for several months. And this week was more of the same, as training didn't go as usual, payments still haven't been made, morale between the players is low, and the coach is seriously thinking about resignation. On top of that, we should add their dreadful away performances, where they only recorded 1 win and 4 draws in 17 matches, and we should have a sure victim here in Iquitos. GL!

CNI (-0.25 AH) @ 1.83, 3/10

Result: 1-2, LOST

Nublense - Universidad Catolica

Chile Primera Division

Nublense, already troubled with relegation - as they are on a relegation play-off position, 3 points behind the safe spot - will have even more worries tonight, as they are missing a host of first team players. They will have to cope without the presence of injured goalkeeper Viera, defender Ruiz and midfielder Oroz, while two other important players are suspended: captain and midfielder Reyes and defender Julio Barroso. Very important absences for a lowly team like Nublense, as they lack depth in quality, and without some of their most important men, they will have to work a lot in order to replace them. They are in very poor form, with only two victories in the last 10 games, and today they will have to face a wounded U. Catolica, which comes after a dramatic derby with Colo Colo. The title is far away from them, as Los Albos are 10 points clear, but the dreams are still there. Anyway, a second place and a ticket for Copa Libertadores 2011 should be a more realistic objective for Catolica. No important absences for them, as quality wise they are obviously much better than Nublense, who shouldn't put much of a fight with their numerous absences. GL!

Universidad Catolica (-0.75 AH) @ 1.84, 3/10

Result: 1-4, WON

Sport Huancayo - Alianza Atletico

Peru Primera Division, Liguilla B

Both teams are coming into this match in good form, and both are still theoretically fighting for their objectives. Huancayo are dreaming of qualifying to Copa Sudamericana once again, but with a win today they will still be 10 points behind Juan Aurich, so it's a bit of a stretch. That's why I expect them to start the match more relaxed, but also determined to keep their 'solid home team' status. Their morale should also be renewed after their solid 3-0 win away at Cienciano last week, and I expect some action from Avila and Mostto, but especially from winger Salas, who managed to get a hattrick last week. Alianza are the surprise package in the last few rounds, snatching 3 wins on a run, and two of them against high-profile opposition: a 2-1 at home versus Leon de Huanuco, and a surprising 3-1 at Juan Aurich. So morale should also be sky high for them, but even with such a good run, they need more, as they are still in the relegation area, but with 3 points here they will climb out. So a victory is a necessity for them, but it will be hard for them at high altitude. But, they have proven they can surprise even bigger teams, and with their game going well, I expect them to battle hard. The over looks good, as I expect both teams to score, and matches between them usually go with high scores. GL!

over 2.5 goals @ 1.81, 3/10

Result: 5-0, WON

Nacional Montevideo - Tacuarembo

Uruguay Primera Division, Apertura

A nice match is expected here, as it seems as it has all the necessary ingredients for a goal fest. Neither team made a good start of the championship, and both are struggling in the lower side of the table, but while Nacional is just 5 points behind the leaders, and has a solid position to get back in the title race, Tacuarembo is last from bottom, with only 5 points, and with a complicated fate in terms of relegation (they are 9 points clear of El Tanque Sisley, but El Tanque's points get multiplied by 2, so it could change any time). The certain things is that both teams are in a dire need for points, and both will go all-in for today's match in order to secure them. 3 strikers are expected to start for both teams tonight, which means we could be in for a nice, goal-plenty match. Nacional will try a 4-1-2-3 tactics, with Santiago Garcia (their top-scorer) included in the starting line-up, while Tacuarembo will give it a shot with a super offensive 3-1-3-3. Both teams are having some of the poorest defenses, so a thinner back line, with a focus on the goals scored, should increase the amount of goal scoring chances that they will create, and hopefully, it will also increase the number of goals scored. One more thing: at Tacuarembo, Jorge Gonzalez will make his debut as their new coach, and he is well known for his offensive mindedness, as all his previous clubs have shown good skills with him at the helm. GL!

over 2.5 goals @ 1.82, 4/10

Result: 3-0, WON

Barcelona - Espoli

Ecuador Primera Divisio, Segunda Etapa

I'm again going with Barcelona here, as I seriously doubt they will continue with their bad form much longer. They are already at 6 games without a win, and their much expected 'revamp' last weekend (following 2 weeks of break and the debut of their new coach) remained much expected. Again Insua will prepare an offensive 3-5-2, with Bolanos in especially good mood in trainings, due to his offensive left winger role, and it looks like he will be often going on the same line as the forwards, Noir and Palacios. Barcelona is slowly getting back to it's original line-up, with almost all of the players making their return from injuries, and with a new coach - that already was at the club three times before, and has proven his worth, it is only a matter of time before they return to their previous form. Espoli looks like the perfect opponent to end a losing streak: They are in an even worse shape than Barcelona, winning just once in their last 10 games, last week being trashed at home by Cuenca, 2-5, after taking an early 2-0 lead. Also, they recorded only 2 wins away from home, so it will be tough for them to come away with something from El Monumental. A few absences should make their life even harder, as defender Ojeda and defensive midfielder Arce are suspended, while midfielders Quinonez and Quillupangui are injured. GL!

Barcelona (-0.75 AH) @ 1.79, 4/10

Result: 0-3, LOST

Toluca - FAS

CONCACAF Champions League

I never thought I'd see something like this: a Mexican team having to fight in the last match-day for it's qualification, in a group with Olimpia, Islanders and Fas. But it's real, as Toluca need a win or they're off. They have a much better situation than their rivals, as Olimpia and the Islanders will see eye to eye in a 'winner takes all' match, because the loser will 99% go home, as I think it's impossible for Toluca to lose. Let's go back to the Mexicans: 3 points tonight and they qualify for the quarters, regardless of other results, that's why newly chosen national team manager, de la Torre, will use a very offensive line-up, in an attempt to make a clear statement, and win the match since it's early stages. The altitude should also come to their aid, but they will most certainly try to take advantage of some internal problems amongst the Salvadoran ranks. FAS is in a very poor form, in the Champions League as well as in their local league, so morale isn't too good at all, especially with the players and the directors arguing over the lack of payment in the last few months. Toluca already won at home 4-0 against Olimpia, and 3-0 against the Islanders, so I can only wonder what the score will be against the poorest team in the league, in a match they are obliged to win. Expect a flowing score. GL!

 Toluca (-2 AH) @ 1.68, 5/10

Result: 5-0, WON

LDU Quito - Union San Felipe

Copa Sudamericana

The first leg of this tie was amazing. San Felipe made a great match, and their offensive powers really hurt LDU's defense. It is true that their great play was also helped by the Ecuadorians lack of reaction, as they only showed some solid play for about 15 minutes, in which they managed to score 2 times. But, in Quito, LDU usually becomes a monster, that not only does not loses it's games, they also tend to trash their opponents. And while usually they do it for fun, now they have to, as they need to score at least 2 goals to qualify. Their playing formation will suffer some modifications as compared to the first leg, as coach Bauza will change back to the system with 2 central midfielders, in order to increase the attacking options, and a third forward is expected behind Salgueiro and Barcos (probably Luna). The altitude should also give LDU the advantage, but San Felipe shouldn't be too impressed, and they will try to do their game, which hurt LDU so much last week. If the game is at least half as exciting as the first leg, this bet should be won by half-time, and with San Felipe now being able to count on their main striker, Vildozo (had some problems when entering the country), I'm expecting a good do-or-die game, with several goals. GL!

over 3 goals @ 2.01, 3/10

Result: 6-1, WON

Universitario - Jose Galvez

Peru Primera Division, Liguilla A

Very low odds on this one, but it will take something close to a miracle for it to fail. Universitario has said good-bye to the final, and now their only objective is to reach a place that allows them to qualify for next years' Copa Libertadores. And for that, they need as much points as they can get, as 7 points are separating them from Alianza and Cesar Vallejo, who are looking like their main rivals for the final Libertadores spot. That is why U's coach Del Solar (who will finally be able to lead the game from the bench) prepared a very offensive formation of 3-4-3, the same that helped them trash Melgar 4-0, a few weeks ago. So it could ve very likely that of offense we'll see Labarthe, Alva and Ruidiaz, a very good attacking trio. The main doubt is in defense, where Galliquio is with a shattered morale after being kicked-out of the National team, but even if he won't play, he defense will be composed of Carmona, Rabanal and Galvan, which looks very good.

Jose Galvez is entering in a critical state, and I doubt they had much preparation for this game. They didn't train for several days this week, as a protest against the management, who have failed to pay them for more than 2 months, and they are now threatening not to return to Chimbote after this match. That means that there are low chances that their minds are focused on the game, which also means their recent good form is pretty much useless. Universitario could have soundly beaten them even under normal circumstances, but now, it looks like a dead-certain outcome. Over could also be a choice here, but I'm afraid of a 2-0. GL!

Universitario (-1 AH) @ 1.74, 5/10

Result: 3-1, WON

Jorge Wilsterman - Universitario de Sucre

Bolivia Primera Division, Clausura

This will be a Bolivian derby of suffering, as the lowliest two clubs will face each other tonight. However, things are much worse for Jorge Wilsterman than for Universitario, despite just 1 point separating them in the standings, but Wilsterman is on a relegation play-off spot in the average points table, and that is where relegation is settled in the Bolivian league. And while things are looking grim, and La Paz is already quite comfortable ahead of Wilsterman, they have no choice but to keep fighting, and hoping for a miracle, especially since Real Mamore is threatening to relegate Wilsterman even further, to the spot of direct relegation. Universitario have no relegation worries this season, but they are fighting on two fronts, also being active in Copa Sudamericana, and this can be seen in their league performances, losing their last 4 matches. Three players have been confirmed as unavailable for this match for Universitario, as defender Albarracin and midfielder Liendo have been sent off last match, while top scorer Galindo still has a match of suspension to serve. Besides them, we could see some other changes in the team, as Universitario will have to travel to Brazil next week, in an almost impossible attempt to overturn a 0-1 deficit against Palmeiras. Wilsterman's home form has been poor, losing 3 out of 6 games, but the only thing poorer than that is Universitario's away record, who are still without a win, and have only managed a draw in 6 appearances. This, plus the probable multiple absences in their team, should make Wilsterman a strong favorite. GL!

Jorge Wilsterman (-0.75 AH) @ 2.01, 3/10

Result: 2-2, LOST

Cobreloa - Everton

Chile Primera Division

Both Cobreloa and Everton are in desperate need of points, and both are fighting for the same objective. Everton is in the relegation play-off zone, and even though a win here won't immediately help them, as they can't go higher than 15th place, it could help them in the long run. Meanwhile, Cobreloa are directly above the play-off zone, but only 2 points clear off Nublense, so a victory for them too is a must. Both teams are having some defensive issues, allowing goals quite easily, but recently, both have improved their attack, Everton managing to score 3 against La Serena last week, while Cobreloa scored 5 in their last 2 matches. Regarding team news, Everton is far from the ideal line-up, and they will be missing some key pieces of their team, most notably in defense, where Rencoret and Arias are injured and Saavedra is suspended, while in midfield, Ramirez is injured and Penailillo is with the u-20 national team. So they will have to patch up their defense and hope for the best, against a Cobreloa side that vows to attack from the beginning. Usually, the games between them are pretty nice, score-wise, and I can definitely see at least 3 goals here. The odds are very nice, and are surely worth some units. GL!

over 2.75 @ 2.10, 3/10

Result: 4-0, WON

All Boys - Independiente

Argentina Primera Division, Apertura

Nice odds for the over here, and a low line, but that's usual in Argentinian games, as in recent years very few matches are entertaining and provide lots of goals and excitement. All Boys looks to be an exception to the typical newly-promoted or 'small' team, who only look to close the spaces and hope for a lucky counter. All Boys don't refuse to play football, that is why their attack looks good, but also their defense looks poor. However, this style made them achieve some nice high-profile results, like the 2-1 win over Estudiantes, 2-0 win over Boca, and a highly entertaining 3-3 draw with Tigre. Big props for them, in hopes that they will continue playing like this, and they should, because every point could be decisive in the aggregate points table. No important changes expected for them tonight, as they will be looking to continue with their solid home form, and make another victim.

Independiente, on the other hand, made an awful start of the season, but it looks as if the worst has passed, since a new coach - 'El Turco' Antonio Mohamed - took over, and managed to win El Clasico de Avellaneda on his debut. But, now, the main problem for them is Copa Sudamericana, where they will have to overturn a 0-1 deficit next week, and since the title is far away, same as the Libertadores qualification, Mohamed decided to put emphasis on Sudamericana. Therefore, most of the regulars will be rested tonight, as the team will suffer no less than 8 changes in comparison to last week's Clasico. This could surely add another dent in their Apertura ambitions, and All Boys looks like a team that's capable to capitalize on this. And despite home win looking like the obvious choice, I'm going for the over, as I have plenty of experience with such games, and very often the over looks better. At least now, we even have better odds for the over. GL!

over 2.25 @ 2.07, 4/10

Result: 3-1, WON

Santiago Wanderers - Union San Felipe

Chile Primera Division

After the fabulous match that counted for Copa Sudamericana, against LDU Quito, San Felipe won 4-2, and have taken a serious step towards a historical qualification. However, they are only halfway through, as it is known the strength that LDU has when playing in Casablanca, and they could easily overturn the 2 goals deficit. That is why San Felipe's coach is putting his entire focus on the Sudamericana second leg, at the expense of the Chilean league, and they will use a line-up consisting fully of reserves, in order to give the regulars a proper rest. That means that big names and regular players will miss the game. Therefore, Santiago Wanderers will have a golden opportunity to take the 3 points that could see them go 3 points clear of the relegation places, so a win today for them is absolutely vital. They should also end their poor run, as they have only won once in the last 9 league matches. The Wanderers will have no important absences, and they have already said they will treat each of the remaining games as a final, so I don't doubt their motivation, and against an alternative San Felipe team, they should take their chances. GL!

Santiago Wanderers @ 1.97, 5/10

Result: 2-1, WON

Inti Gas - Universidad San Martin

Peru Primera Division, Liguilla A

I'm going for a surprise here, as San Martin have gone winning their last 4 games, but these winning streaks don't last very long in Peru. And Ica looks like the perfect place to end your winning streak. San Martin can consider themselves finalists already, as with 13 points ahead of Alianza Lima, it will be almost impossible to lose such an advantage. So I doubt their commitment, despite their words of going for the 3 points, and other things like that. They can rest assured they will be in the final, without much of a sweat, and even though I'm sure they would like another win, I don't think they will push to the extremes to get it. Especially since their top scorer, and also the league's top scorer, Arriola, is doubtful, and it looks like he's going to miss this game. Inti Gas should go out with all they have, and 3 points against the best team of the year will surely motivate them a lot. As I said, in Ica it is very hard to take points, and we just need to look at their last home matches, where they defeated Universitario (2 times this season), Alianza Lima, and Juan Aurich some time ago. They like this sort of matches, and they get some extra-motivation while playing them, and that's what should matter here, because quality is obviously on San Martin's side. GL!

Inti Gas (+0.25 AH) @ 1.78, 3/10

Result: 2-1, WON